Oscar History: 2008

The 2008 Oscars will likely go down as the final year when only five films would compete in the granddaddy category of them all, Best Picture. The following year, the Academy would change it to ten and a couple years after that, developed a formula where anywhere fromĀ 5-10 movies could be recognized.

Many believe the reason is 2008’s exclusion of the critically lauded superhero sequel The Dark Knight, which had become the year’s highest grossing feature and was considered a major milestone in the burgeoning genre. Yet with the exception of its acclaimed Joker, Knight was shut out in the major categories.

Best Picture instead went to a true “little movie that could” – Danny Boyle’s out of nowhere critical and audience pleaser Slumdog Millionaire.

It would win out over David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon, Gus Van Sant’s Milk, and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader. It is a bit surprising that Oscar voters left out Knight and I would put forth that a decent argument could also be made for Jon Favreau’s Iron Man, which also stands as a creative high point in the comic book canon of movies.

In the Best Director category, it was a rare example of the five nominated auteurs matching the Picture nominees and Boyle would take home the gold over Fincher, Daldry, Van Sant, and Howard. Once again, Christopher Nolan would be on the outside looking in for his Knight direction.

Sean Penn would win his second Best Actor statue (2003’s Mystic River being the first) for playing gay activist Harvey Milk in Milk.

Other nominees: Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon, Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button, and Mickey Rourke in a career comeback role as The Wrestler.

Certainly Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman and Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man could have been considered along with Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino, and the Slumdog Millionaire himself Dev Patel.

After a number of nominations with no victories, Kate Winslet would win Best Actress for The Reader, beating out Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married). Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), and the omnipresent Meryl Streep (Doubt).

It was a bit surprising to see Cate Blanchett’s work in Benjamin Button go unrecognized.

The Dark Knight would win its Oscar with the late Heath Ledger taking Supporting Actor as the Joker. Other nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), and Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road).

While it was refreshing to see the Academy nominate a comedic performance like Downey’s in Tropic Thunder, an equally good argument could have been made for Tom Cruise’s role in that picture. Same goes for James Franco’s exemplary work as a stoner in Pineapple Express.

Woody Allen has directed several actresses to Supporting Actress wins and he did it again with Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona.

She would be victorious over Amy Adams in Doubt, Viola Davis – also for Doubt, Taraji P. Henson in Benjamin Button, and Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler.

I might’ve found room for Frances McDormand in the Coen Brothers Burn After Reading.

And that’s all for now on the Oscar History front! I’ll be back with 2009 in the near future…

No Good Deed Box Office Prediction

Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.

Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.

No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Dolphin Tale 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/07/dolphin-tale-2-box-office-prediction/

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/