Tag: Michael Philippou

76th Directors Guild of America Awards Nominations Predictions

The SAG Awards aren’t the only nominations out this Wednesday. We have the Director of Guild of America (DGA) nods coming our way. They are usually an 80% indicator of who the Academy will name for its behind the camera prize.

In the past decade, the DGA quintet has matched the Academy’s on a 4 for 5 level in nine out of the last ten ceremonies. The only outlier is 2018 when it was 3 for 5. Note there is no 5 for 5 correlation.

So where does that leave this year’s DGA mix? For the last several weeks, I have had the following five filmmakers pegged for Oscar inclusion: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). It’s fair to say this is the consensus group among awards prognosticators.

Let’s assume there’s a 4 for 5 match. I believe Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig are safe bets. If anyone from that trio missed DGA, it would be considered a surprising omission.

Then I’d say Lanthimos is a near lock. My slight hesitation comes from him being left out in 2018 for The Favourite. Yet I’ll say he’s in.

That means I’m leaving Glazer on the cutting room floor and that makes some sense. The DGA has a history of omitting makers of foreign titles that the Academy recognizes. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car).

Don’t get me wrong. Glazer could get in as Zone is being hailed specifically for its directorial choices. I cannot, however, bring myself to match the DGA picks with my current Academy selections.

For the fifth slot, I’m going with Bradley Cooper for Maestro. That’s another title I believe will be appreciated for its directorial work perhaps more than other contenders like Alexander Payne (The Holdovers).

Celine Song (Past Lives) is certainly a threat. However, she’s the frontrunner for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in First-Time Feature Film race. She could be a double nominee, but I doubt it.

Here are my picks for all three feature DGA contests with an alternate selection as well.

Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

First-Time Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Raine Allen Miller, Rye Lane

A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One

Celine Song, Past Lives

Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone

Alternate: Danny and Michael Philippou, Talk to Me

Documentary

Predicted Nominees:

Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol

Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia

Davis Guggeheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Kaouther Ben Hania, Four Daughters

D. Smith, Kokomo City

Alternate: Matthew Heineman, American Symphony

Talk to Me Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (07/26): A reported screen count of 1900 has warranted lowering my prediction from $4.8 million to $3.6 million

After debuting at Sundance back in January, Australian horror flick Talk to Me reaches stateside theaters on July 28th. Marking the directorial of debut for brothers Danny and Michael Philippou, Sophie Wilde stars with a supporting cast including Alexandra Jensen, Joe Bird, Otis Dhanji, Miranda Otto, and Zoe Terakes.

Encouraging chatter for Talk emerged from Utah early this year. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. Following its premiere, a bidding war occurred with A24 securing distribution rights for the low-budget (a reported $4.5 million price tag) fright fest.

That said, this runs the risk of being the kind of elevated horror experience that critics dig more than audiences. I have yet to see a theater count so my projection could change once I do. For now, I think it may open around the amount of its cost.

Talk to Me opening weekend prediction: $3.6 million

For my Haunted Mansion prediction, click here:

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction