Oscar Watch: Welcome to Marwen

Nearly a quarter century ago, Robert Zemeckis was the toast of Oscar night with Forrest Gump, famously beating out now classic works including Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption. With the release of Welcome to Marwen this Friday, it’s clear that things have changed.

The true life drama (based on the acclaimed 2010 documentary Marwencol) casts Steve Carell as a victim of violence who develops amnesia and invents his own fantasy world. From the release of its first trailer, the film failed to garner any awards buzz. We are now seeing reviews only two days before it release. That’s rarely a positive sign. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently a troubling 21%. Box office estimates are low.

Bottom line: Welcome to Marwen never developed as a contender and the buzz out today shows why. There is one caveat. The pic did make the shortlist of ten possible nominees for Best Visual Effects. However, my current projections show Avengers: Infinity War, First Man, Black Panther, Ready Player One, and Mary Poppins Returns as the ones that will elevate. My weekly picks will be released early tomorrow and (spoiler alert!) Marwen will place 8th. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Welcome to Marwen Box Office Prediction

It’s looking to be a rough road ahead for Welcome to Marwen, which debuts next weekend and could get lost in the holiday shuffle. It casts Steve Carell in this based on a true story drama of an assault victim who develops amnesia and develops his own fantasy world. Robert Zemeckis, the man behind Back to the Future and Forrest Gump and most recently Allied, directs. Costars include Leslie Mann, Janelle Monae, and Gwendoline Christie.

Marwen simply hasn’t managed to generate any heat. It’s been the subject of zero awards chatter and we have a slew of real Oscar contenders populating multiplexes. If it performs poorly, it would be Carell’s second dramatic flop in a row this season after Beautiful Boy.

This film is reminding me a lot of last year’s Downsizing, which also opened Christmas weekend. It also had recognizable stars, a known director, genre similarities, and precious little buzz. The result? An opening of just over $5 million. I’m putting this even lower.

Welcome to Marwen opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Aquaman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/11/aquaman-box-office-prediction/

For my Mary Poppins Returns prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/10/mary-poppins-returns-box-office-prediction/

For my Bumblebee prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/11/bumblebee-box-office-prediction/

For my Second Act prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/14/second-act-box-office-prediction/

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18) – On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate from $8.7 million to $6.3 million

Based on a series of YA novels from Alexandra Bracken, The Darkest Minds debuts in theaters next weekend. The dystopian adventures stars Amandla Stenberg (from last year’s Everything, Everything), Mandy Moore, Gwendoline Christie, and Bradley Whitford. Jennifer Yuh Nelson (best known for making parts 2 and 3 of the animated Kung Fu Panda  franchise) directs.

We are far removed from the YA adaptation heyday of The Hunger Games and Twilight series. 20th Century Fox doesn’t seem to be hyping this one much. Instead of anything near Katniss or Bella numbers, I could see this struggling to reach double digits. The best comp could be 2013’s The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, which made a piddling $9.3 million for its start and effectively ended any chance of future sequels. That will probably be the case here with a dark opening for Minds.

The Darkest Minds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million

For my Christopher Robin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Movie Review

Star Wars: The Last Jedi is an experience of seemingly big moments in the most famous and loved franchise in history. There are instances of enormous satisfaction here and smaller developments and touches that work.

Jedi is also a little deceiving. When the credits rolled, I slowly began to realize the seismic occurrences witnessed weren’t necessarily all that. There are major developments with some historic characters, but there’s also examples of stagnation with some principals and truly furthering the action along. There is no other series of pictures where the positive aspects are magnified to legendary status and the flaws are portrayed as crimes against humanity. If Jar Jar Binks were to be tried in a court of fanatics, his demise would come slowly and with pain.

In the cycle of endless chatter that accompanies each episode, the 8th appears primed to garner both emotions. To this writer, some of its shortcomings were more obvious than what we saw in episode VII, The Force Awakens.

The knock on Awakens was simple and I believe mostly misguided. When J.J. Abrams and Disney took over the reigns from George Lucas, complaints were registered that it was essentially a remake of the 1977 original. This is a fair point to a small degree but I walked away from Awakens highly energized and quite pleased with the new crop of characters mixed with the ones we’ve grown up with. I didn’t feel it was just an effective ripening of our collective member berries. It stood on its own.

When we last left our heroine Rey (Daisy Ridley), she was standing on a lush mountain top seeking the help of one Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill). An Awakens surprise was that Luke loomed in the story, but didn’t say a word and didn’t appear until the final frames. He’s present here and he’s plenty conflicted about whether he wants to help his Force bearing wannabe apprentice. While Daisy and Luke work all that out, Chewbacca gets to hang out with seriously adorable creatures called Porgs. They’ll make great Christmas toys.

Meanwhile, Finn (John Boyega) awakens from his slumber caused in the previous installment to befriend Rose (Kelly Marie Tran), a maintenance worker who becomes his right-hand girl. Poe (Oscar Isaac) is still the cocky fighter pilot who drives his superiors crazy. They include Princess Leia (Carrie Fisher) and another high ranking official played by Laura Dern.

Of course, there’s also the First Order. Kylo Ren (Adam Driver), who made his mom a widow, is back. He’s still experiencing family conflict drama that would probably keep his ship’s psychiatrist busy if there was one. Kylo is still under the command of Supreme Leader Snoke (Andy Serkis) and he’s developed a telepathic type communication with Ren. It’s their dynamic that gives Jedi some of its most significant and powerful moments. Much credit is due to the superb work of Ridley and Driver, which was the case the first time around.

Not all character arcs work as well. It mostly does with Luke and Jedi features Hamill’s most convincing work as Luke. Isaac’s Poe is still a bit of a one trick pony, but the talented actor is granted more screen time to shine. Boyega’s Finn is sidelined with subpar subplots. He’s also saddled by teaming up with a thief played by Benicio del Toro. The Oscar winning actor plays his role so over the top that it’s a tad distracting. I’d say the same for Domhnall Gleeson as First Order General Hux. Finn and company have a whole segment on a new planet filled with degenerates and a lush casino. A triumph of production design, yes, but it also felt like filler.

The Last Jedi has a lot of humor in it, more so that I expected from its new director Rian Johnson. The reliance of it may disappoint some die hards, but I found most of it welcome. By its nature, some of the most dramatic moments succeed just because they’re present. Luke walking into the Falcon? Check. Luke and Leia reuniting after years apart? Check. So for those who complained about episode VII’s nostalgia peddling, it’s a bit unavoidable I say.

Bottom line: my Last Jedi reaction was a little more mixed than when I saw Awakens. It’s easily better than anything Lucas gave us in episodes I-III. For those hoping this would be the Empire of the new trilogy, you can transfer that hope to IX.

*** (out of four)