Bodies Bodies Bodies Box Office Prediction

The slasher satire Bodies Bodies Bodies opened in six theaters exclusive to New York and L.A. yesterday and it appears to be doing brisk business. From director Halina Reijn, the A24 pic (sporting a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes) stars Amandla Stenberg, Maria Bakalova, Myha’la Herrold, Chase Sui Wonders, Rachel Sennott, Lee Pace, and Pete Davidson (who’s in the news this weekend due to his reported breakup with Kim Kardashian).

Early reports have Bodies laying down an approximate $240-250k gross for its coastal limited release. That equates to roughly a $40k per theater average and that’s impressive.

Whether that translates to a sizable rollout next weekend when it grows to around 1200 screens is a murkier question. Performing well in America’s two largest cities is one thing while nabbing eyeballs in the heartland and elsewhere is another.

My hunch is that this won’t quite hit $5 million in the expansion on August 12th, but it could have the capacity to surprise.

Bodies Bodies Bodies (wide) opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Mack & Rita prediction, click here:

Mack & Rita Box Office Prediction

For my Fall prediction, click here:

Fall Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Bodies Bodies Bodies

A24’s Bodies Bodies Bodies premiered at South by Southwest in March and the theatrical release comes in limited fashion tomorrow. Marking the English directorial debut of Danish filmmaker Halina Reijn, the slasher comedy is drawing some kudos from critics. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at an impressive 94%.

Amandla Stenberg, Maria Bakalova (recent Supporting Actress nominee for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm). Myha’la Herrold, Chase Sui Wonders, Rachel Sennott, Lee Pace, and Pete Davidson lead the cast in this tale of a hurricane themed party goes awry. Numerous reviews have praised the screenplay’s twist on a well-worn genre.

Even with the solid notices, I would guess that A24 will be far more focused on campaigning for Everything Everywhere All at Once (which could win Original Screenplay) and not this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Dear Evan Hansen Box Office Prediction

The film adaptation of the Tony Award winning musical drama Dear Evan Hansen hits theaters September 24. Directed by Stephen Chbosky (who made the 2012’s acclaimed indie The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s blockbuster Wonder), Hansen recasts Ben Platt in the title role. The supporting cast features Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Kaitlyn Dever, and Amandla Stenberg.

Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival, the cinematic version has not garnered the same kudos that it did on Broadway. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 47% and many are griping about Platt (now in his late 20s) portraying a high schooler.

I might be a little more optimistic if Hansen had Oscar vibes going for it, but that’s been silenced by the critics. That said, there is a built-in audience familiar with the play and that could help. The same could have been said for this summer’s In the Heights, which majorly underperformed.

My projection is that this doesn’t quite reach double digits.

Dear Evan Hansen opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

Oscar Watch: The Hate U Give

Nineteen year old actress Amandla Stenberg is most known for her work as Rue in the original Hunger Games and the 2017 romance Everything, Everything (she also headlined this summer’s box office flop The Darkest Minds). The Toronto Film Festival has screened The Hate U Give, George Tillman Jr.’s crime drama where Stenberg’s character witnesses the shooting of her childhood best friend.

Early reviews suggest it could be a breakout role for the performer. The supporting cast includes Regina Hall, Common, and Anthony Mackie. The pic is based on last year’s YA novel by Angie Thomas. Tillman Jr. has seen many of his pics achieve financial success, such as Soul Food, Barbershop and Notorious. Awards recognition has alluded him.

Bottom line: The Hate U Give will need to get noticed by audiences in order for that recognition to have any chance. While reviews are strong, I’d say Oscar nods are a long shot and that includes Stenberg.

The film is slated for release on October 19. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18) – On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate from $8.7 million to $6.3 million

Based on a series of YA novels from Alexandra Bracken, The Darkest Minds debuts in theaters next weekend. The dystopian adventures stars Amandla Stenberg (from last year’s Everything, Everything), Mandy Moore, Gwendoline Christie, and Bradley Whitford. Jennifer Yuh Nelson (best known for making parts 2 and 3 of the animated Kung Fu Panda  franchise) directs.

We are far removed from the YA adaptation heyday of The Hunger Games and Twilight series. 20th Century Fox doesn’t seem to be hyping this one much. Instead of anything near Katniss or Bella numbers, I could see this struggling to reach double digits. The best comp could be 2013’s The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, which made a piddling $9.3 million for its start and effectively ended any chance of future sequels. That will probably be the case here with a dark opening for Minds.

The Darkest Minds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million

For my Christopher Robin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

Everything, Everything Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros. is out with a new YA flick based on a book next weekend when Everything, Everything debuts. The romance casts Amandla Stenberg (best known as Rue from The Hunger Games) who suffers from SCID, also known as “Bubble Baby Disease”. The aforementioned romantic plot involves Nick Robinson (best known as the older brother in Jurassic World). Stella Meghie directs this adaptation of Nicola Yoon’s debut novel.

I wouldn’t expect anything near The Fault in Our Stars numbers here. That said, previous genre entries have a habit of hitting double digits. Everything is out in 2800 theaters and I think it stands a fair shot at outperforming Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, which is obviously going for an even younger demographic.

I’ll predict this does manage to top $10M for a third place showing this weekend.

Everything, Everything opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my Alien: Covenant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/