Box Office Predictions: September 2-5

The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/the-light-between-oceans-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.

This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.

As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Light Between Oceans

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Morgan

Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 26-28)

Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.

Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.

Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.

Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).

Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.

War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.

Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.

There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.

And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.

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One thought on “Box Office Predictions: September 2-5

  1. Yo Todd!

    Greeting from the Dominican Republic (where the internet is sketchy, to say the least).

    I know I’m in the minority, but I’m glad to see the summer season come to an end. Let’s get on with the Oscar contenders!!

    Morgan – $5.3M (3-day) / $6.6M (4-day)
    The Light Between Oceans – $7.6M / $9.5M

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