Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: December 23-26

Ho Ho Ho!!!

It’s Christmas weekend at the box office and it’s expected to be a bustling one as five new pictures open in wide release, an Oscar front runner continues to expand, and the second weekend of Rogue One is upon us.

The five newbies are: animated musical Sing, Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci fi romantic thriller Passengers, video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed with Michael Fassbender, James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him?, and Denzel Washington family drama Fences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/sing-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/passengers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/assassins-creed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/why-him-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/fences-box-office-prediction/

When it comes to crunching the numbers for the fresh product, one must consider the release dates of each. Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s Creed all debut this Wednesday. Why Him? will be out Friday. Fences won’t be out until Christmas Day on Sunday, so it’s only two days of grosses to factor in for it.

As I see it, Sing should rather easily be tops among the newbies with Passengers in third. I do wonder if the mostly negative reviews for the J. Law title could hinder it, but I’m still going with a low 40s four-day. I have Creed and Why Him? rounding out the top five with Fences managing a seventh place showing for its 48 hour haul.

As for the second weekend of Rogue One, a 40% dip would put it in the low  90s and that would be good for the 4th largest second weekend of all time. Last year’s record setter The Force Awakens fell just 39% in its sophomore frame (and that was just 3 day gross) for a $149M gross.

As for other holdovers, the holiday weekend typically sees either small drops (and sometimes slight increases) and that’s reflected in my estimates. Additionally, La La Land (currently on 200 screens) is expected to triple its theater count and it should experience a more significant bump.

And with that- I’m doing a top ten predictions for this crazy four-day weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $92.8 million (representing a 40% drop)

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)

4. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (Friday to Monday), $28.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

6. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 21%)

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)

8. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

9. Office Christmas Party 

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

 

10. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (December 16-18)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story blasted off with an impressive $155 million, good for the 12th largest domestic debut of all time. While it didn’t match my generous $168.3M projection, this is still a fine start for the first spin-off in the heralded franchise and its A Cinemascore grade bodes well for its second weekend and beyond.

Another Disney title – their animated hit Moana – was second with $12.7 million (above my $9M estimate) for a $162M total.

Office Christmas Party was third in its second weekend with $8.5 million, ahead of my $7.1M forecast for a tally of $31M.

The news was not so festive for Will Smith as his critically drubbed Collateral Beauty gave the star his worst wide opening of his career. It made just $7.1 million, well under my $11.4M prediction. I’ve got it experiencing a meager decline over Christmas weekend, but any way you look at it, this is a huge disappointment.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was fourth with $5 million (in line with my $4.8M take) for a $207M haul.

Two Oscar contenders held the six and seven spots. Manchester by the Sea earned $4.2 million in its expansion (I was close with $4.4M) for a total of just over $14M. The aforementioned La La Land continued its sizzling per screen averages with $4.1 million (I said $4.2M) to put its take at just over $5M. As mentioned, it should continue to impress over the holidays and awards season.

And that does it for now, folks! Wishing you a Merry Christmas this weekend and and hopefully a joyous time at the movies…

Box Office Predictions: December 9-11

In the weekend before Rogue One and then a slew of Christmas releases populate the multiplexes, we have two pics opening in wide release: holiday comedy Office Christmas Party and Jessica Chastain political drama Miss Sloane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/30/office-christmas-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/02/miss-sloane-box-office-prediction/

Actually, there’s a third film scheduled to come out in wide (or semi-wide) release and that’s Tom Ford’s thriller Nocturnal Animals with Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal. The problem is that I don’t have a screen count on it at press time, so predicting its number is a bit of guesswork. I’ll say it manages $2.3M. However, when its count is released, I reserve to right to change that estimate.

Back to the newbies with theater counts. Office Christmas Party may benefit from being the only comedy out there (Bad Santa 2 has come and gone) and with its recognizable cast, I’ve got it pegged to manage a #2 opening, just behind Moana‘s third weekend.

Fantastic Beasts should slip to third with holdovers Arrival and Allied filling out the top five, with Sloane very close behind.

Here’s how I have the top 6 projected for this weekend:

 

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Miss Sloane

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend is typically a pretty sleepy one at the box office and 2016 was no different.

Disney’s Moana easily held the top spot for the second weekend in a row grossing $28.2 million (on pace with my $28.8M projection). The animated hit has amassed $119M thus far.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held the #2 position with $18.1 million, a bit under my $20.9M prediction for an overall gross of $183M.

Other holdovers held up quite well over the weekend. Arrival was third with $7.2 million (above my $5.9M estimate) for a $73M total. Allied was fourth with $7 million (I said $5.9M for it as well). It’s grossed $28M. Doctor Strange was fifth with $6.6 million (I said $6.1M). The Marvel property stands at $215M.

Last and least, horror pic Incarnate landed in ninth with a blah $2.5 million, though it did manage to just outpace my $1.7M forecast.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Check out the blog tomorrow when my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story box office prediction is posted. Until then…

Box Office Predictions: December 2-4

The first weekend of December will be filled by Thanksgiving leftovers as only one newbie debuts this weekend: supernatural horror pic Incarnate starring Aaron Eckhart. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/24/incarnate-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m expecting Incarnate to bomb with just a $1.7 million opening, meaning it shouldn’t come close to the top 5.

When it comes to holdovers, Disney’s Moana should easily top the charts in its second weekend. I’m estimating it will lose close to half its opening frame audience. Fantastic Beasts should hold the runner-up spot.

The real drama could be for #3 as I expect Doctor Strange, Allied, and Arrival to each make about the same amount. The post Thanksgiving weekend usually sees pretty large declines for returning product and I expect this year to be no different.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (November 25-27)

As anticipated, Disney ruled the Turkey Day holiday frame as their acclaimed animated title Moana was #1. It grossed $56.6 million over Friday to Sunday (right on target with my $56.4M estimate) and $82 million since its Wednesday roll-out (topping my $77.2M projection). Look for the ‘toon to play well over the next month.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them displayed a far better hold than I gave it credit for at second with $45 million as opposed to my $34.9M prediction. The J.K. Rowling would-be franchise has taken in $156M thus far.

Marvel’s Doctor Strange was third with $13.7 million, in line with my $14M prediction to bring its haul to $205M.

The Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard World War II romantic thriller Allied suffered a ho-hum 4th place showing. It made $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $17.7 million since its Wednesday bow, coming in under my respective forecasts of $14.2M and $21.1M.

Arrival displayed a strong hold in its third frame at #5 with $11.4 million (above my $8.6M prediction) for a $62M total.

Trolls came in sixth with $10.6 million (I went a little higher at $12.7M) for $135M overall.

Audiences greeted Bad Santa 2 with little enthusiasm as it debuted in seventh place to just $6.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $9.1 million since Wednesday, a bit below my guesstimates of $8.1M and $10.8M.

Almost Christmas was eighth with $5.6 million (I said $4.7M) for a $34M haul.

Mel Gibson’s directorial comeback Hacksaw Ridge was ninth with $5.5 million (I said $5.1M) to bring its pleasing earnings to $52M.

I incorrectly had The Edge of Seventeen outside of the top ten in its second weekend. It earned $2.9 million to bring its small gross just over $10M.

That’s because I gave too much credit to Warren Beatty’s return to the big screen in Rules Don’t Apply. The pic debuted with an extremely disappointing $1.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday. That’s good for just 12th place and well shy of my $4.8M and $6.3M prognoses.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: November 25-27

It’s Turkey Day weekend at the 2016 box office and there’s four new titles debuting in wide release: Disney’s latest animated creation Moana, Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied, raunchy sequel Bad Santa 2, and Warren Beatty’s long in the making Rules Don’t Apply. You can stuff yourself on my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/allied-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/bad-santa-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/rules-dont-apply-box-office-prediction/

All 4 releases debut Wednesday to capitalize on the holiday weekend, so my estimates reflect both a three-day and five-day forecast on them.

Moana should rather easily debut on top, especially with the less than expected returns of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over this past weekend (more on that below).

I’m slating Allied for a third place showing, but if it comes in with less than my estimate, it could battle both Doctor Strange and Trolls for the 3-5 spots. It’s worth noting that holdovers on Thanksgiving weekend typically experience smaller than usual declines. While I’ve got Beasts losing over half its audience in its sophomore frame, I have Strange, Trolls, and Arrival losing crowd shares in the low-high 20s percentile range.

That means I’ve got Bad Santa 2 premiering at #7 with Rules Don’t Apply in ninth place between Hacksaw Ridge and Almost Christmas. 

Here’s how the blog readers view my predictions on the newbies:

Moana – 55% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 7% Too High

Allied – 52% Just About Right, 30% Too Low, 18% Too High

Bad Santa 2 – 58% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 11% Too High

Rules Don’t Apply – 64% Just About Right, 18% Too High, 18% Too Low

Any way you look at it… this will be one fascinating weekend to watch and here’s how my top ten looks:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $34.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Allied

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 21%)

5. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 27%)

6. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 29%)

7. Bad Santa 2

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 23%)

9. Rules Don’t Apply

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

It was a weekend where all four new releases came in below expectations… some far more drastically than others.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned $74.4 million to begin a planned five film franchise. This number is on the lower end of expectations and under my $83.1M projection. This is certainly no disaster for Warner Bros, but a gross closer to $90M was probably their hope. That said, expect the J.K. Rowling series to keep rolling.

Doctor Strange fell to second with $17.7 million (below my $21.5M estimate) for a three-week tally of $181M.

Trolls was third with $17.4 million (I was a bit higher with $19.7M) for a gross of $116M thus far.

In its second weekend, Arrival was fourth with $12.1 million, a bit under my $13.6M estimate for a $43M total.

I incorrectly had Almost Christmas outside the top five, but it was fifth with $7.2 million for a $25M overall gross.

And… then there’s the other fresh product that came over the weekend. Audiences weren’t interested. Despite critical acclaim, the coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen sputtered with $4.7 million in seventh place, less than half of my $10.9M prediction.

The news was worse for boxing drama Bleed for This, KO’d in 8th place with just $2.3 million (less than half my $5.8M prognosis).

Which brings us to Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Ugh. I somehow estimated it would make $9.2 million. Yet its lukewarm critical reaction and tampered down buzz (it was once thought of to be a potential awards factor) absolutely destroyed it. Walk was DOA in 14th place with an atrocious $901,000. So… oops!

And there you have it, my friends! Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: November 18-20

It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).

Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).

As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:

Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High

The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High

Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low

Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $83.1 million

2. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Edge of Seventeen

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (November 11-13)

In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).

Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.

The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.

Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.

Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).

Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.

The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 11-13

Three more titles make their way to the big screen this weekend as the critically lauded sci-fi pic Arrival, holiday dramedy Almost Christmas, and Naomi Watts led horror thriller Shut In debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

After the massive opening of Marvel’s Doctor Strange, it appears unlikely that any of the newbies will prevent it from a second weekend atop the charts (unless Arrival majorly over performs). Benedict Cumberbatch and company should drop in the mid 50s, which should be more than good enough for box office domination.

The real battle could be for the #2 spot as Trolls may not even lose 40% of its audience from its impressive premiere. That could leave it and Arrival in close range for runner-up status. However, the somewhat low 2200 screen count for the Amy Adams tale could push its gross to low to mid 20s.

I’m expecting Almost Christmas will have a merry 4th place debut in the high teens with Hacksaw Ridge rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

My meager Shut In prediction at $5.7 million leaves it outside the top 5 and likely in the 6th spot.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my opening weekend takes on the newbies:

Arrival – 41% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 24% Too High

Almost Christmas – 46% Just About Right, 31% Too Low, 23% Too High

Shut In – 60% Just About Right, 40% Too Low, 0% Too High

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the busy weekend ahead:

1. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $37.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

3. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

4. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

5. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (November 4-6)

As predicted, Doctor Strange posted the 10th highest debut (out of 14) of the Marvel Cinematic Universe thus far, though it managed to top my estimate. The well-reviewed superhero origin tale brought in a terrific $85 million compared to my $77.3M prognosis for what is surely another franchise for the studio.

Dreamworks Animation has reason to smile as Trolls also exceeded expectations to the tune of $46.5 million (ahead of my $34.6M estimate) for a hair raising second place debut. Look for this to play well throughout the month and reach an eventual domestic gross close to $150M.

And the third newcomer of the weekend also performed solidly as Mel Gibson’s acclaimed war drama Hacksaw Ridge made $15.1 million (outpacing my $12.1M projection). The pic stands a good chance of playing well throughout awards season.

After two weeks unexpectedly at #1, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween fell to fourth with $7.7 million. My prediction? $7.7M! It’s earned $64M total.

Inferno continued to its ice cold performance in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $6.8M) to bring its tally to just $25M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: November 4-6

The month of November begins at the box office with the infusion of some likely blockbusters to lift the current fall season out of its doldrums. We have three new pics that should populate the top 3 spots: Marvel’s critically acclaimed Doctor Strange, Dreamworks animated Trolls, and Mel Gibson’s World War II drama Hacksaw Ridge. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/25/doctor-strange-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/trolls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/hacksaw-ridge-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that Disney/Marvel will rule the weekend with their new superhero. The question is just how big it will be. My estimate gives it the 10th out of 14th largest opener for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, between Thor: The Dark World and the first Thor. 

While Strange should hammer all competition, I’ve got those frizzy haired Trolls capturing a sizable family audience for a sturdy runner-up showing.

As for Hacksaw, the well-reviewed pic could over perform, but I’ve got it slated for a low double digits debut (though it may play well throughout awards season).

When it comes to holdovers, I look for Boo! A Madea Halloween and Inferno (which bombed this past weekend; more on that below) to experience sizable dips and fall to fourth and fifth.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my prognoses:

Doctor Strange – 47% Just About Right, 36% Too Low, 17% Too High

Trolls – 55% Just About Right, 26% Too Low, 19% Too High

Hacksaw Ridge – 65% Too Low, 27% Just About Right, 8% Too High

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $77.3 million

2. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $34.6 million

3. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Inferno

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (October 28-30)

In a seriously surprising box office upset, Boo! A Madea Halloween remained atop the charts for a second weekend in a row with $17.2 million, well ahead of my $12.7M projection. The Tyler Perry hit has amassed $52 million so far and looks to easily become the 2nd highest grossing Madea titled pic after 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail.

The upset is due to the massive under performance of Inferno, the third teaming of Tom Hanks and Ron Howard based on Dan Brown’s novels. The film absolutely tanked with just $14.8 million, less than half of my extremely generous $30.6M prediction. This franchise started a decade ago to great results with The Da Vinci Code and still produced decent results in 2011 with Angels & Demons. While Inferno is performing better overseas, you can bet this is the last time we’ll see Mr. Hanks cracking codes.

In another Tom led box office disappointment, Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back fell hard in weekend #2 with $9.5 million (I was higher with a $12.4M forecast). Its meager earnings stand at $39 million.

I fared a bit better with the rest of the top five. The Accountant was fourth with $8.4 million (I said $8.7M) for a $61 million total. Ouija: Origin of Evil was fifth with $7.1 million (I said $7.3M) for a $24 million tally.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 28-30

For the previous two weekends at the box office, we’ve seen a total of seven features roll out in wide release. As the final frame of October is upon us, we just have one to close the month out – Inferno. This is the third teaming of director Ron Howard with Tom Hanks in adapting Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon novels to the screen. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inferno Box Office Prediction

While Inferno should have no trouble debuting at #1, just how much it makes is a legit question. I’ve got it pegged at just over $30M, though my blog readers tend to disagree with 64% saying my prediction is Too High. 23% think I’m Just About Right with 13% believing I’m Too Low.

As for holdovers, Boo! A Madea Halloween had a much larger than anticipated debut last weekend (more on that below). Similar Madea titles that opened in the same range dropped about 60% in their second weekend. Could Halloween dip a bit lower since, you know, this is Halloween weekend coming up? Perhaps, but probably not by much.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back should lose close to half its audience. Same for Ouija. The Accountant in weekend #3 has been experiencing good worth of mouth and its drop may not be quite as pronounced (I have it leaping over Evil).

And with that – the top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Inferno

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 48%)

Box Office Results (October 21-23)

In an unexpected box office twist, Tyler Perry outpaced Tom Cruise this weekend as Boo! A Madea Halloween scored a terrific debut with $28.5 million, more than double my meager $12.5M estimate. This marks the third highest debut for a Madea titled pic and ensures this character will be having other holiday fun (Thanksgiving’s probably next) into the future.

It was expected to top the charts, but Madea blocked that as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back debuted in second with $22.8 million (just below my $23.9M estimate). The Tom Cruise sequel suffered from middling reviews and it was following up a predecessor that isn’t exactly beloved. It should struggle to make the $80M earned by the first Reacher and it probably won’t.

Ouija: Origin of Evil didn’t scare up as much business as its predecessor, taking in $14 million for third place (I predicted $15.2M). With a lackluster C Cinemascore grade (same as the first one), it should fade fast, but may not have too calamitous a drop next weekend due to the Halloween holiday.

With all the newbies premiering, The Accountant slipped to fourth with $13.6 million. My prediction? $13.6M! At least I got something right this weekend! Its total stands at $47M.

The Girl on the Train was fifth with $7.1 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The thriller has grossed $58M in three weeks.

The Zack Galifianakis led comedy Keeping Up with Joneses had to settle for seventh place with a poor $5.4 million, well below my $10.1M forecast. It actually performed worse than the star’s comedy from earlier this month, Masterminds. 

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 21-23

It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/11/jack-reacher-never-go-back-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/boo-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/ouija-origin-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/12/keeping-up-with-the-joneses-box-office-prediction/

To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.

So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low

Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)

Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:

1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million

2. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

3. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Keeping Up with the Joneses

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (October 14-16)

The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.

The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.

The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.

Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.

Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 14-16

The October box office rolls along as three new titles debut: Ben Affleck’s CIA thriller The Accountant, stand-up concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Mattel toy adaptation Max Steel. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/the-accountant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, my estimated high teens for Accountant should be enough of a number to make it #1. For #2, I’m looking at an extremely tight race between Mr. Hart and Ms. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train’s sophomore frame.

Due to a very low prognosis for Max Steel at $3.8 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon should round out the top five.

When it comes to where the readers are at with my newcomer estimates:

The Accountant – 48% Too Low, 43% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Kevin Hart: What Now? – 45% Just About Right, 33% Too High, 22% Too Low

Max Steel – 46% Too Low, 36% Too High, 18% Just About Right

And with that – my take on that top 5 for the weekend ahead:

1. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

2. Kevin Hart: What Now?

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

3. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 7-9)

As expected, The Girl on the Train topped the charts, rolling in with $24.5 million. This is a pretty decent debut that did come in below my $28.2M forecast. However, its middling B Cinemascore grade indicates plenty of audience members weren’t wild about it.

Last weekend’s champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit ahead of my $14.3M projection. The 10 day total stands at $51 million.

In its sophomore frame, Deepwater Horizon was third with $11.5 million – in line with my $11.9M estimate for a $38 million total.

The Magnificent Seven was fourth with $9 million (higher than my too clever $7.7M prediction) and has earned $75 million.

Storks rounded out the high five at $8.2 million (I said $9.3M) and it’s earned an underwhelming $49 million.

Lackluster newbies were sixth and seventh. Once considered a strong Oscar contender, the fading The Birth of a Nation disappointed with $7 million. I went higher with $10.5M.

Teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right under with only $6.8 million (I said $7.8M).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…