The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.
Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.
The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.
As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low
Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High
**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.
The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.
Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.
Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.
Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.
Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…