Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: July 29-31

**Blogger’s Note: Mid-week numbers for NERVE has significantly upgraded my estimate to $10.8M for Friday to Sunday and $16.3M for Wednesday to Sunday. These changes are reflected in the breakdown for the top 10 below. – TT

***Blogger’s note 2 (07/28/16) Cafe Society opening on less screens that I anticipated. My $3.8M Estimate now revised down to $2.3M, outside of top ten.

The final weekend of July comes at us with three new debuts: Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne, raunchy comedy Bad Moms, and techno thriller Nerve. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/jason-bourne-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/bad-moms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/20/nerve-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Bourne should have no trouble ruling the charts and I have the fifth franchise entry (and first with Damon in nearly a decade) falling just short of the series high debut of $69 million for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum. 

It’s after that where things get a little more interesting. The battle for second place could be a close one as I have Bad Moms posting a very solid debut that may put it in close proximity to the second weekend of current champ Star Trek Beyond. 

As for the rest of the top five, The Secret Life of Pets should easily hold the fourth spot while a three-way battle for #5 should be fought between Ghostbusters, Lights Out, and Ice Age: Collision Course (all of which posted similar grosses this past weekend). I’m estimating Ghostbusters will have the smallest decline of the trio and manage to stay put at the five spot.

Then there’s Nerve, which opens Wednesday. I’m not expecting much out of it – so much so that I’m placing it ninth after Finding Dory in 8th.

AND we have another title that count enter the top ten this weekend as Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expands nationwide. It’s been performing well in limited release and could have a decent roll out elsewhere. There’s no theater count yet, which makes this estimate a bit tricky – but if it opens on around 900 screens (par for the course for Woody pics), I’ll put it at $3.8 million. That would be good for 10th place just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan. 

So we shall expand my typical top 5 predictions and go with a top 10 for this weekend:

  1. Jason Bourne

Predicted Gross: $67.6 million

2. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Bad Moms

Predicted Gross: $26 million

4. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

6. Nerve

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

8. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

10. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (July 22-24)

As expected, Star Trek Beyond easily topped the box office with $59.2 million, reaching beyond my $53.4M prediction. Both its predecessors in the current iteration of the franchise made over $70M for their starts, but this is still a respectable showing and should be enough to see the series chugging along.

The Secret Life of Pets slipped to second after two weeks on top with $29.6 million, above my $24.9M projection. The smash hit animated feature has amassed $260M so far and surprised all by accomplishing more in weekend 3 than Ice Age: Collision Course in weekend 1 (more on that below).

Perhaps the brightest spot of the weekend belonged to third place Lights Out, the critically acclaimed micro budgeted horror flick which earned $21.6 million. That’s a quadrupling of its $5 million price tag and a doubling of my meager $10.2 million projection. Good reviews and James Wan’s participation clearly helped.

The aforementioned Ice Age: Collision Course proved to be a franchise on thin ice as family audiences mostly rejected it. It grossed $21.3 million for fourth place (below my $28.3M estimate) for an embarrassing franchise low by a lot – the previous low was the 2002 original’s $46.3M. Ouch.

Ghostbusters rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $21 million (just above my $19.8M forecast) for an $86 million total.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 22-24

Three new titles hit screens this weekend as sequels Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course look to battle for the top spot with low-budget horror pic Lights Out opening as well. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/13/star-trek-beyond-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/14/ice-age-collision-course-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/15/lights-out-box-office-prediction/

My estimates have both sequels not bringing in what their predecessors managed. I have Beyond slated to debut about 25% lower than 2013’s Star Trek Into Darkness with Collision Course premiering a bit below 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift. That would give Beyond the edge to open at #1 with Course placing second. My just over double digits projections for Lights Out would put it in fifth.

As for holdovers, two-week champ The Secret Life of Pets should dip to third. Many eyes will be on the second weekend of Ghostbusters, which pretty much debuted in line with expectations (more on that below). However, it may be its second week performance that helps determine its true viability as a budding franchise. I have it losing more than half its audience.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Trek Beyond

Predicted Gross: $53.4 million

2. Ice Age: Collision Course

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

5. Lights Out

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (July 15-17)

Moviegoers called up The Secret Life of Pets and not the Ghostbusters for their most favored title this weekend as the animated mega-hit took in $50.8 million (under my $57.6M prediction) for a ten-day tally of $203M.

The Ghostbusters, as mentioned, premiered in line with most expectations at $46 million – not quite reaching my $47.3M projection. The reboot of the beloved 80s franchise may need a solid second weekend to justify its existence as a franchise. I have my doubts.

The Legend of Tarzan was third, grossing $11.4 million (I was close with $11.1M) and crossing the century mark for a $103M total.

Finding Dory took fourth with $11.2 million. My guess? $11.2M! The Pixar smash and biggest hit of the year thus far has amassed $445M.

Sophomoric comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates rounded out the top five in its sophomore weekend with $7.6 million (a bit under my $8.9M estimate) for a total of $31M.

Finally, the Bryan Cranston crime thriller The Infiltrator landed in seventh place – debuting with $5.3 million over the traditional weekend and $6.7 million since its Wednesday. This just outpaced my respective predictions of $4.6M and $6.1M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 15-17

Blogger’s note – on vacation currently so keeping things shorter and sweeter than normal.

The third weekend of July brings the Ghostbusters (albeit a new team) to theaters for the first time in nearly three decades, as Bryan Cranston’s crime drama The Infiltrator opens Wednesday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/ghostbusters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/the-infiltrator-box-office-prediction/

Ghostbusters may fall short of the #1 spot, based on my projection if The Secret Life of Pets falls just over in the 40s after its massive debut (more on that below).

That should leave Tarzan and Dory fighting it out for the three spot with Mike, Dave and their wedding dates rounding out the top five. My projection for The Infiltrator ($4.6 million Friday to Sunday and $6.1M from Wednesday to Sunday) leaves it outside the high five.

With that – my predicted top 5:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $57.6 million

2. Ghostbusters

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

3. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million

5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JULY 8-10)

The Secret Life of Pets smashed projections this weekend with $104.3 million – lapping my $73.7M estimate. That’s good for the sixth highest animated debut ever and what’ll surely be a new franchise.

The Legend of Tarzan stayed in second with $21 million (just above my $19.8M prediction) for a two week tally of $81M. Finding Dory slipped to third after three weeks on top with $20.8 million (a touch under my $23.3M forecast) for a $423M overall haul.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates had a pleasing debut in fourth with $16.6 million, ahead of my prediction of $13.5M.

The Purge: Election Year was fifth with $12.3 million (I said $10.9M) for a ten day total of $58M. Central Intelligence was sixth with $8 million and I incorrectly had outside the top 6. That’s because Steven Spielberg’s The BFG continued its lackluster grosses and dropped further than I anticipated. It was seventh in weekend 2 with $7.8 million – under my $10.6M estimate for a gross of just $38M.

And that’s for now, friends! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: July 8-10

The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/29/mike-and-dave-need-wedding-dates-box-office-prediction/

I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.

As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $73.7 million

2. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 1-4)

As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.

One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.

Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.

While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.

Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 1-4

The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-legend-of-tarzan-box-office-prediction/

While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.

As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)

2. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)

5. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)

Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.

20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.

Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.

Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.

The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 24-26

Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/independence-day-resurgence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/free-state-of-jones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/the-shallows-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.

The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $63.5 million

3. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Free State of Jones

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. The Shallows

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

Box Office Results (June 17-19)

The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by Shrek the Third. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.

Central Intelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous  declines and all came in below my estimates. The Conjuring 2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. Now You See Me 2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 17-19

Disney/Pixar looks to have their biggest debut ever while Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart team up for an action comedy as Finding Dory and Central Intelligence premiere this weekend. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/finding-dory-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/

My estimates do have that animated fish pulling off Pixar’s largest opening weekend haul with Intelligence performing similarly to Hart’s two last pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard.

As for holdovers, I look for current champ The Conjuring 2 to lose about half its audience. Another sequel, Now You See Me 2, should experience a better sophomore hold than Warcraft.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $117.3 million

2. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

3. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 63%)

Box Office Results (June 10-12)

Horror fans turned out for The Conjuring 2 as it debuted on top with $40.4 million, just below my $42.6 million estimate and just under the $41.5 million that the original made in its first weekend in 2013.

The video game based Warcraft managed a pretty minor debut with $24.1 million – though it did barely outdo my $23.3M projection. Mostly scathing reviews and poor word of mouth didn’t help for the mega-budget production, but it is doing well overseas.

Another sequel to a 2013 hit, Now You See Me 2, came in third with $22.3 million. I went just over with a $24.1M forecast. This doesn’t match the $29 million that the first made.

Last weekend’s #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows slipped to fourth with $14.3 million, on target with my $14.4M prediction for an underwhelming two week tally of $60M.

X-Men: Apocalypse was fifth with $9.9 million (I said $10.4M) for a $136M total and Me Before You was sixth with $9 million (I said $10M) for a gross of $36M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 10-12

The attack of the sequels continues in the second weekend of June 2016 as The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 debut. Both are follow-ups to massive summer 2013 hits and both will attempt to match or outdo their predecessors out of the gate. And there’s the long-awaited Warcraft, based on the two decades old video game with a fervent following. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/the-conjuring-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/now-you-see-me-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/warcraft-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the three newbies should populate the top 3 spots this weekend. However, other prognosticators may differ with my placement of them. I have Conjuring 2 slightly outpacing the original and rather easily placing first. On the other hand, I’m predicting Now You See Me 2 will come in a bit under the $29M accomplished by its predecessor and finish second.

Warcraft is the biggest question mark, in my estimation. Even with its devoted fan base, word of mouth has been troubling, competition is fierce, and I’m having difficulty seeing it expand beyond its core audience. That puts it third in my book in a photo finish with Now You See Me 2. 

After an unimpressive opening (more on that below), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should drop to fourth. The five spot could be a close one between the third weekend of X-Men: Apocalypse and the second weekend of Me Before You, which performed quite well in its debut.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million

3. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (June 3-5)

There was little question that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows would rule the weekend, but its eventual take was none too impressive. The sequel made $35.3 million, well below my $50.3M prediction. Shadows continues the 2016 trend of sequels coming in considerably below their predecessors. The 2014 reboot of the franchise made $65M in its opening weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse (another sequel not matching its previous entry) dropped to second with $22.8 million, a bit under my $25.3M forecast for a two-week total of $116M.

The British romantic drama Me Before You had an impressive roll-out with $18.7 million compared to my meager $11.5M estimate. The film, which received mostly positive reviews, was the beneficiary of a sizable female turnout in a sea of the mostly male-driven material populating the multiplexes.

Alice Through the Looking Glass continued its putrid run in weekend #2 with $11.3 million, though it did top my $10M prediction. The Disney bomb has grossed just $51 million in ten days… less than half of what 2010’s Alice in Wonderland earned in its first weekend.

The Angry Birds Movie was fifth with $10.2 million (in line with my $9.8M projection) for an $87M tally so far.

Captain America: Civil War was sixth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a total of $389M and $400M right around the corner.

I did a top seven predictions for this weekend and incorrectly had under performing Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising outside that group. It placed 7th with $4.8 million for an overall $48M gross.

That’s because I had Andy Samberg’s Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping at seventh, yet it charted in 8th with a weak $4.6 million opening (I said $5.6M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 3-5

The first box office weekend of June brings a trio of new entries: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, British romance Me Before You, and Andy Samberg’s musical doc spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Me Before You Box Office Prediction

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Box Office Prediction

That martial arts reptile sequel should have no problem topping the charts, unless it severely comes in under expectations… you know, like Alice Through the Looking Glass did (more on that below).

X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice should experience high drops, though X should still mark the two spot. Alice may find itself in a battle for third with Me Before You (or even Angry Birds). Captain America should fall to 6th with Popstar perhaps settling for seventh.

Therefore, let’s do a top 7 predictions this weekend and see how it all shakes out:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $50.3 million

2. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 63%)

5. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

 

6. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

7. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (Memorial Day Weekend 2016)

As anticipated, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the Memorial Day weekend, even though its tally couldn’t match the superior performance of its predecessor, Days of Future Past, in the same weekend in 2014. The 8th feature in the franchise (which received less favorable reviews than most others) earned $65.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $79.8 million counting its Monday earnings. That’s far below my respective predictions of $82.8M and $100.4M. By contrast, Future Past‘s Memorial Day brought in $90M and $110M for its holiday performance.

Disney has had a truly incredible year with smashes like Zootopia, The Jungle Book, and Captain America: Civil War. Yet the hits stopped this weekend with the massive failure of Alice Through the Looking Glass. The sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (which received scathing reviews) tanked with only $26.8 million over the three day and $33.5 million for the holiday. I went WAY over with $53.6M and $67.7M. This is an unmitigated disaster. Speculation is fair about whether Johnny Depp’s scandal over the weekend with Amber Heard may have played a part, but the studio may have simply waited too long to put this out.

The Angry Birds Movie dropped to third in its sophomore frame with $18.7 million for the three-day (just under my $20.4M forecast) and $24.5 million for the full weekend. My prediction? $24.5M! Yay me! Its total sits at $72M.

Captain America: Civil War fell to fourth in weekend #4 with $15.3 million and $20 million, under my estimates of $18.1M and $22.2M for a $377M gross. It should reach over $400M.

Disappointing comedy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising was fifth with my $9.3 million and $11.4 million for the three and four day a bit below my respective estimates of $10.4M and $12.2M. The two week total for it: $40M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 27-30

It’s Memorial Day weekend coming up at the summer box office with two high-profile sequels debuting – X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/x-men-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

I expect the Mutants to fairly easily top The Mad Hatter, with Apocalypse just edging the century mark for its four-day holiday frame with Looking Glass getting to the mid-60s. That would mean both entries would come in below what their predecessors managed in 2014 and 2010, respectively.

As for holdovers, The Angry Birds Movie should slide to third after a robust 1st place debut (more on that below) with Captain America: Civil War and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (which struggled this last weekend) rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the Memorial Day frame which encapsulates my three and four-day forecasts:

  1. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.2 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (May 20-22)

The first feature film based on an app nabbed the #1 spot as The Angry Birds Movie soared to a $38.1 million opening, a bit above my $34.5M projection. This was on the higher end of expectations for the animated pic.

After two weeks on top, Captain America: Civil War slipped to second with $32.9 million, just under my $35.1M forecast for a three-week total of $347M.

The news was not good for Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, and company as Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising grossed an unimpressive $21.7 million for third. I went way over with $38.2M, which I should predicted for those ill-tempered birds. Considering the original made $49M out of the gate, we can safely assume Neighbors 3 won’t happen. This continues a recent trend of comedy sequels (think: Horrible Bosses, Zoolander) under performing.

Despite mostly glowing reviews, The Nice Guys with Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling finished fourth with $11.2 million in its opening, under my $14.4M prediction.

The Jungle Book rounded out the top five with $10.9 million and I predicted… $10.9M! Yay! Almost makes up for the Neighbors thing, but not really…

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…