Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.
Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.
That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.
Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.
Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.
I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…
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