My closer looks at six of the major Oscar categories turns to Best Actress. If you missed my posts covering the other three acting derbies, you can access them right here:
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have made a couple of things clearer, as they usually do. While reviews for her were solid, I think Kate Winslet in Lee is now a long shot for inclusion in the final five. On the other hand, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin is more of a possibility than I would’ve originally thought. I do, however, think the film will need to make its mark elsewhere and I’m a little skeptical at the moment.
In Venice, the Best Actress prize went to Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla and that certainly helps her stock. I’m not prepared to put her into the final quintet. The soft frontrunner is probably Emma Stone in the rapturously received Poor Things. It could put her in line to take this race seven years after her victory in La La Land. She skyrockets to fifth to first.
Other strong hopefuls are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Natalie Portman in May December, and Greta Lee for Past Lives. Annette Bening could find herself in the mix as Nyad. An “overdue for a win” narrative could give her statue, but I could also see her being left out completely.
Then there’s Margot Robbie who is, of course, headlining 2023’s largest hit with Barbie. Some might say there’s no way she gets left out. I would remind people about Tom Cruise’s non-nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. Yet she could absolutely end up making the cut.
I’ve included Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) in the quintet since I began predicting months ago. Her work is the only one mentioned here still unseen. She clings to the five spot for now.
As with the other acting races, I’m winnowing the field from 15 possibilities to 10 and here’s how I see it right now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 2) (-3)
4. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Winslet, Lee
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Regina King, Shirley
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Saoirse Ronan, Foe
Best Director is up next!
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