The SAG Awards were announced this morning and a couple of items are clear. First, the Screen Actors Guild nods handed us some genuine surprises. Second, this branch of thespians really love them some Emily Blunt!
I went 18/25 on my predictions and let’s break down each category with some thoughts and my first winner predictions (with final ones coming right before the January ceremony).
Best Ensemble Film
Nominees: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians
The nominations reflected yours truly going just 2/5 (ouch). And there were shockers. If Beale Street Could Talk, with its sprawling cast, being snubbed counts as one. I also figured The Favourite and Vice could get in. It was probably foolish to think A Star Is Born would be left out, even if its only a trifecta of actors getting the lions share of attention. BlacKkKlansman wasn’t too surprising, but the inclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody definitely is. It’s probably time to start talking about the real chance it gets a Best Picture nomination, despite many mediocre reviews. The only two I got right: Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. As I see it now, Star could win here. Yet I’m still going with SAG honoring a larger group of performers and I’ll go with an unprecedented MCU victory (for now).
Predicted Winner: Black Panther
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Four out of five here with Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed and his momentum from critics group being interrupted. It’s John David Washington getting in for BlacKkKlansman instead. I had Ryan Gosling for First Man in as an alternate and it’s worth mentioning that the Neil Armstrong biopic received zero nominations.
Bale and Mortensen might have shots (and maybe even Malek), but Cooper has the edge.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Four for five. My upset pick of Toni Collette getting recognition for Hereditary didn’t pan out. Instead it was the aforementioned Ms. Blunt in with the rest of the expected nominees. Even with Actress having lots of options in 2018, this is beginning to look like the consensus Academy five. Like the Oscar race, I expect this to come down to Close v. Gaga.
Predicted Winner: Gaga
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Five for five. Like Actress, this is also looking to be the most probable group of Oscar nominees. And it’s a genuine three-way competition between Ali, Elliot, and Grant. You could flip a coin at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Ali
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Three for five. The exclusion of Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (considered somewhat of an Oscar favorite) is totally unexpected. So is the inclusion of Blunt, who got an Actress nod and was a surprise nominee two years ago for The Girl on the Train. Claire Foy didn’t get in for First Man as Margot Robbie did (that could help her chances with the Academy). Honestly, I would have picked King to win had she been named here. I could see either of the Favourite ladies possibly winning, but I’ll go with Adams (who’s also nominated in the TV race for Sharp Objects). She could also win that and probably will.
Predicted Winner: Adams
And there you have it! Expect plenty more awards show and Oscar analysis in short order.