Gran Turismo was originally supposed to release wide today, but was pushed to August 25th for the grand rollout. There’s a limited release this weekend for the PlayStation game generated pic. It’s based on a true story (hence the longer title Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story) of Turismo player Jann Mardenborough (Archie Mardekwe) who became a professional driver. Neill Blomkamp, whose acclaimed 2009 sci-fi effort District 9 earned a Best Picture nod, directs. The supporting cast includes David Harbour, Orlando Bloom, Darren Barnet, Djimon Hounsou, Gerri Halliwell Horner, and Thomas Kretschmann.
Some reviews are calling this is a crowd pleaser while others are considerably less impressed. This is evidenced by the current 54% Rotten Tomatoes score. Blomkamp might have seen his 14-year-old debut in the BP mix, but it’s been a series of disappointments (Elysium, Chappie, Demonic) since.
That said, there is plenty of praise for Turismo‘s sound team. A nod in that race isn’t out of the question. Yet there’s already a spot reserved for Oppenheimer and Dune: Part Two (as long as it’s out in 2023). This may not simply be on the Academy’s radar at all come early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For the second weekend in a row, a big budget blockbuster geared towards the female audience will likely dominate a B action movie with Liam Neeson connections. YA sequel Insurgent comes out a year following its predecessor Divergent and I have it debuting to even bigger numbers. The Gunman comes from the director of Neeson’s Taken and stars Sean Penn. The wild card newbie is faith based drama Do You Believe?, which could carry on the recent tradition of these types of pics premiering with larger than anticipated results. You can find detailed prediction posts on all three newcomers here:
As you can see, I expect Insurgent to easily top the charts. Disney’s live action Cinderella retelling should be #2 after its very strong rollout this past weekend (more on that below). I anticipate it’ll drop in the mid 40s range.
I have Do You Believe? posting healthier numbers than The Gunman, which has been the victim of some pretty brutal reviews so far. The underperforming Liam Neeson thriller Run All Night should round out the top five after its muted opening this last weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $62.1 million
2. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $36.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Do You Believe?
Predicted Gross: $12.3 millon
4. The Gunman
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
Well, call me the belle of the ball this weekend! Disney’s Cinderella got off to a terrific start with $67.8 million. My prediction? $67.8 million! Holla!! Female audiences turned out in droves for the acclaimed feature. Having a short film from the Frozen team airing before it probably didn’t hurt either.
The news was not near as good for Liam Neeson as Run All Night stumbled with just $11 million, a little short of my $12.1 million. Reviews were OK but having this arrive so soon after Taken 3 was probably a misstep.
Kingsman: The Secret Service was third and it’s posted solid holds from week to week. I incorrectly had its outside the top five but it earned $6.2 million to boost its current cume to $107 million.
Focus and Chappie each made $5.7 million for fourth and fifth, right around my respective projections of $5.6 million and $6.1 million. The Will Smith caper has made a middling $43 million while Chappie stands at a weak $23 million. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was sixth with $5.6 million, in line with my $6 million estimate. It’s made $18 million through two weeks.
And that will wrap it up for now…. Until next time!
It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.
Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.
They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $67.8 million
2. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
3. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. Focus
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.
Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.
Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.
Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.
I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).
That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.
Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.
The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.
I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.
As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Focus
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Unfinished Business
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)
As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.
Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.
The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.
Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.
Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.
Before he takes over the storied Alien franchise, District 9 and Elysium director Neill Blomkamp brings his next sci fi offering to audiences this Friday with Chappie. The robot centric picture features Blomkamp regular Sharlto Copley as well as recognizable faces like Hugh Jackman, Sigourney Weaver, and Dev Patel.
In 2009, the director broke through in a big way with District 9, the sleeper hit which ended up with a Best Picture nomination. District made $37 million out of the gate with an eventual domestic take of $115 million. His 2013 follow-up Elysium with Matt Damon didn’t quite live up to expectations, at the multiplex or critically. Elysium opened at $29 million with a final tally of $93 million.
I anticipate that Chappie will continue the trend of diminishing returns in Blomkamp’s filmography before it is certain to tick back up when he enters Alien world. Chappie hasn’t done enough to set itself apart with its trailers and TV spots. Still, it’s debut should easily be enough to open at #1, but I anticipate a premiere of under $25 million.
Chappie opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
For my Unfinished Business prediction, click here:
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