Kingsman: The Golden Circle Box Office Prediction

British spies join forces with their American counterparts in Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the sequel to the 2015 action/comedy hit Kingsman: The Secret Service. Matthew Vaughn is back directing with returning stars Colin Firth, Taron Egerton, and Mark Strong. We also have some new but very familiar faces that include Channing Tatum, Jeff Bridges, Julianne Moore, Halle Berry, and even Elton John!

Two and a half years ago, the original hit its mark with both critics and moviegoers. Opening to $36 million, The Secret Service went on to gross $128M overall domestically. With the relatively small gap between the sequel and its predecessor, I don’t see sequelitis kicking in here.

Circle could find itself in a real battle for the #1 spot with The Lego Ninjago Movie. Both pictures are expected to post debuts in the low to mid 40s. There’s also the third weekend of It to consider, as it still should be raking in plenty of cash.

I’ll project that the second go-round for the Kingsman (and now the Statesman) debuts about $7 million above the first.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million

For my The Lego Ninjajo Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/the-lego-ninjago-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my Friend Request prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/17/friend-request-box-office-prediction/

Summer 2007: The Top 10 Hits and More

Well it’s Throwback Thursday and I’m giving you the culmination of my three-part series recounting the movie summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We’ve already gone back to memory lane in 1987 and 1997. If you missed either of those posts, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/01/summer-1987-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/04/summer-1997-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

That means I’m traveling back a decade ago to 2007 and it’s a summer where threequels were majorly in vogue, accounting for four of the top six grossing pictures. Sequels were pervasive in general in this particular season and it was a breakout summer for one Seth Rogen.

As I have with these previous entries, I’ll count down the top ten hits as well as other notable pics and some flops.

Let’s get to it!

10. Rush Hour 3

Domestic Gross: $140 million

The third and final pairing of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker in this action comedy franchise is our first threequel on the list. It fell a steep $86 million short of what Rush Hour 2 accomplished six seasons earlier.

9. Knocked Up

Domestic Gross: $148 million

The comedic summer breakout continued Judd Apatow’s hit streak after The 40 Yr. Old Virgin from two previous summers and gave Seth Rogen his first big leading role. Katherine Heigl may have inexplicably trash talked it later, but audiences disagreed.

8. The Simpsons Movie

Domestic Gross: $183 million

Arriving nearly two decades after the still going FOX animated series debut, The Simpsons Movie surpassed all expectations with its gargantuan gross. Just last month, producers announced there’s been traction on a planned sequel.

7. Ratatouille

Domestic Gross: $206 million

Our second animated entry comes from the Pixar conglomerate. The critically hailed rat tale actually experienced one of the lowest openings for Pixar, but it still managed to top $200 million and its reputation has only grown.

6. The Bourne Ultimatum

Domestic Gross: $227 million

Matt Damon’s third go-round as the title character is still the highest grossing entry of the franchise and the only to pass $200 million. The star returned to the series just last summer.

5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

Domestic Gross: $292 million

The fifth installment of the $2 billion plus franchise marks the first one directed by David Yates, who would make the following three pics as well. It stands #5 of the 8 Potter pics in domestic gross.

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Domestic Gross: $309 million

The third Pirates flick is when critics really started to turn on the series. Getting past $300 million is nothing to sneeze at, but it is nearly $115 million lower than its predecessor Dead Man’s Chest just one summer before.

3. Transformers

Domestic Gross: $319 million

Michael Bay’s bot series started a decade ago and it’s still going. The original ranks third of the five in grosses as its two sequels topped it, but the last two have fallen under it.

2. Shrek the Third

Domestic Gross: $322 million

Much like Pirates, this is when reviewers started to sour on this series. It was still chugging along, but it did fall $120 million below Shrek 2.

1. Spider-Man 3

Domestic Gross: $336 million

Anyone noticing a pattern here? Once again – a third franchise entry where critics started sharpening their knives. This end to the Sam Raimi Spidey trilogy was considered a big letdown in quality, yet it still topped the summer while earning less than its two predecessors.

And now for some other notable pictures of summer 2007:

Live Free or Die Hard

Domestic Gross: $134 million

From a pure numbers standpoint, it’s the highest grossing pic to feature Bruce Willis in his signature role of John McClane (though that changes when adjusting for inflation). From a pure entertainment standpoint, the decision to make this the only PG-13 Die Hard film was a bit puzzling.

Superbad

Domestic Gross: $121 million

Mr. Rogen’s big summer kept rolling along with this acclaimed comedy in which he costarred and co-wrote. Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, and McLovin became household names due to this.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry

Domestic Gross: $120 million

Before his movies moved to Netflix, Adam Sandler could still crank out $100M+ earners just a decade ago, even if it was this stale comedy co-starring Kevin James.

Hairspray

Domestic Gross: $118 million

Based on both the John Waters 1988 pic and the Broadway musical that followed it, Hairspray featuring John Travolta, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Christopher Walken performed above expectations.

Ocean’s Thirteen

Domestic Gross: $117 million

Worth mentioning because it’s yet another threequel that couldn’t quite match the grosses of the first two. An all female version of the Ocean’s franchise is soon coming to a theater near you.

Once

Domestic Gross: $9 million

That may be appear to a small gross, but this little Irish romantic musical came out of nowhere stateside and has achieved a devoted following. It’s even been adapted into a Broadway play.

And now for some of the flops of summer 2007:

Evan Almighty

Domestic Gross: $100 million

Yes, it may have crossed the century mark, but this spin-off of 2003’s Bruce Almighty was considered the flop of the season. Starring Steve Carell fresh off the acclaimed 40 Yr. Old Virgin, this family feature came with a reported $175 million budget. Audiences and critics weren’t impressed.

Stardust

Domestic Gross: $38 million

This fantasy flick with Claire Danes, Robert De Niro, and Michelle Pfeiffer only earned a bit more than half its $70 million budget domestically. However, director Matthew Vaughn has bounced back in a significant way with Kick-Ass, X-Men: First Class, and Kingsman: The Secret Service. 

The Invasion

Domestic Gross: $15 million

Another remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, bad reviews sunk this pic that featured Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, fresh off his heralded debut as James Bond.

I Know Who Killed Me

Domestic Gross: $7 million

Lindsay Lohan was a long way from Freaky Friday and Mean Girls with this panned psychological thriller that featured the starlet as a stripper. Audiences turned away.

And that does it, folks! You can rest assure you’ll see summer posts recounting 1988, 1998, and 2008 in a year’s time…

Kingsman: The Secret Service Movie Review

Kingsman: The Secret Service is an homage to old school spy flicks if those particular movies from the 60s could have featured lots of gory and video game style violence. This genre of film from Bond to Bourne has turned more serious as of late and Kingsman aims to be the antidote. There are a number of clever moments and there is excitement present, but I could never completely shake the feeling that Matthew Vaughn’s latest often feels about half as cool as it thinks it is. The director takes his Kick-Ass attitude to these proceedings and the result never quite reaches the level of fun of that aforementioned effort.

The Kingsman are a group of British super spies whose London store front tailor shop hides the underground lair of gadgetry and much more. Michael Caine is their leader and Colin Firth one of their veteran agents. The picture begins in the late 90s as one Kingsman saves Firth’s life while losing his own. The deceased’s young son Eggsy (Taron Egerton) is visited by Firth and given a code to call the Kingsman if he should ever be in trouble. Flash forward to seventeen years later and Eggsy is a rebellious and aimless youth who does end up making that call and he’s soon recruited to try out for the organization that his dad died for.

He joins a number of other youth in their lengthy auditions for membership to the Kingsman and these scenes are a bit similar to some in Vaughn’s previous movie, X-Men: First Class. The bad guy in the mix is Richmond Valentine (Samuel L. Jackson), a billionaire who aims to wipe out most of the Earth’s population except for a privileged few royals and celebrities (Iggy Azalea is humorously mentioned as one of the survivors). It is the character of Valentine’s and Jackson’s lisping and off kilter portrayal of him that tells you most of what you need to know about the movie. Vaughn and his cowriters wish to harken back to the days of the ridiculous 007 villains. It’s a delicate thing for the screenwriters to get this right while all the over the top Tarantino-esque bloody violence is happening and it doesn’t always succeed. Some of the time, I almost expected Dr. Evil to stand alongside Valentine. Other times the story seems to forget it wants to be a satire at all.

That said, the performers give it their all and it’s particularly amusing to see Oscar winner Firth in a true badass mode. He has one scene located in a Kentucky church that stands as the most memorable. Newcomer Egerton may have a bright future and Jackson definitely seems to be enjoying himself. This is an undeniably stylish exercise and the action centerpieces are directed with the trademark energy we’ve come to expect from Vaughn. On a side note, the climactic battle may have you furiously Shazaming the funky track playing in the background. It’s Give It Up by KC and the Sunshine Band. You’re welcome.

The talent involved with Kingsman is considerable. I just wish I got the same kinetic thrill I received from Vaughn’s Kick-Ass and X-Men: First Class. It tries hard, but this concoction of self aware spoof with cartoonish violence and occasionally tired social and political satire plays more like a curiosity than the success stories of the filmmaker’s previous offerings.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: April 3-5

It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/28/furious-7-box-office-prediction/

With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.

The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $117.4 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.

Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.

Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.

Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.

The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.

In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 27-29

The last week of March brings two titles to the multiplex that could easily place first and second: the Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard and Dreamworks animated flick Home. You can peruse my detailed projections on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/get-hard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/21/home-box-office-prediction/

Get Hard should rule the weekend unless its quite negative reviews give it a softer opening (so to speak) than expected. Home should manage an OK debut for an animated pic.

As for holdovers, Insurgent opened a little lighter than anticipated and it should lose more than half its audience in weekend two, like predecessor Divergent did. Cinderella should place fourth in weekend #3 while nearly two month old Kingsman: The Secret Service may stay at the five spot.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top five:

1. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $30.3 million

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (March 20-22)

As mentioned, YA sequel Insurgent came in a bit lower than expected with $52.2 million, under my generous $62.1M prediction and slightly under what Divergent accomplished a year ago. This is certainly not a huge letdown for the studio, but most prognosticators had this debuting higher than the original.

Cinderella dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $34.9 million, just below my $36.9M projection. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $122 million in ten days.

Liam Neeson’s action dud Run All Night was third in weekend #2 with $5 million, in line with my $5.6M estimate. It’s made just $19 million so far.

Neeson’s Taken director stumbled with The Gunman, Sean Penn’s action thriller which flopped with just $5 million out of the gate, below my $6.8M prediction.

Kingsman: The Secret Service managed to stay in the top five with $4.6 million. I incorrectly didn’t include it in the top five. Its total stands at $114 million.

Finally, faith based drama Do You Believe? bombed with a paltry $3.5 million for sixth place. Many similar themed pictures debuted to bigger than expected results in 2014 and I incorrectly believed this would, estimating a $12.3M opening. Oops.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 20-22

For the second weekend in a row, a big budget blockbuster geared towards the female audience will likely dominate a B action movie with Liam Neeson connections. YA sequel Insurgent comes out a year following its predecessor Divergent and I have it debuting to even bigger numbers. The Gunman comes from the director of Neeson’s Taken and stars Sean Penn. The wild card newbie is faith based drama Do You Believe?, which could carry on the recent tradition of these types of pics premiering with larger than anticipated results. You can find detailed prediction posts on all three newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/insurgent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/the-gunman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/do-you-believe-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect Insurgent to easily top the charts. Disney’s live action Cinderella retelling should be #2 after its very strong rollout this past weekend (more on that below). I anticipate it’ll drop in the mid 40s range.

I have Do You Believe? posting healthier numbers than The Gunman, which has been the victim of some pretty brutal reviews so far. The underperforming Liam Neeson thriller Run All Night should round out the top five after its muted opening this last weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Insurgent

Predicted Gross: $62.1 million

2. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $36.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Do You Believe?

Predicted Gross: $12.3 millon

4. The Gunman

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Run All Night

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (March 13-15)

Well, call me the belle of the ball this weekend! Disney’s Cinderella got off to a terrific start with $67.8 million. My prediction? $67.8 million! Holla!! Female audiences turned out in droves for the acclaimed feature. Having a short film from the Frozen team airing before it probably didn’t hurt either.

The news was not near as good for Liam Neeson as Run All Night stumbled with just $11 million, a little short of my $12.1 million. Reviews were OK but having this arrive so soon after Taken 3 was probably a misstep.

Kingsman: The Secret Service was third and it’s posted solid holds from week to week. I incorrectly had its outside the top five but it earned $6.2 million to boost its current cume to $107 million.

Focus and Chappie each made $5.7 million for fourth and fifth, right around my respective projections of $5.6 million and $6.1 million. The Will Smith caper has made a middling $43 million while Chappie stands at a weak $23 million. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was sixth with $5.6 million, in line with my $6 million estimate. It’s made $18 million through two weeks.

And that will wrap it up for now…. Until next time!

 

 

Box Office Predictions: March 13-15

It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.

Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.

They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/07/cinderella-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/07/run-all-night-box-office-prediction/

Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $67.8 million

2. Run All Night

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

3. Chappie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. Focus

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 6-8)

Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.

Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.

Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.

Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.

I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).

That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.

Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…