Box Office Predictions: March 6-8

The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/28/chappie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/28/unfinished-business-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/28/unfinished-business-box-office-prediction/

It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.

I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.

As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Chappie

Predicted Gross: $23.8 million

2. Focus

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Unfinished Business

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)

As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.

Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.

The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.

Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.

Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

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