Box Office Predictions: March 13-15

It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.

Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.

They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $67.8 million

2. Run All Night

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

3. Chappie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. Focus

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 6-8)

Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.

Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.

Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.

Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.

I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).

That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.

Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

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