Box Office Predictions: November 11-13

Three more titles make their way to the big screen this weekend as the critically lauded sci-fi pic Arrival, holiday dramedy Almost Christmas, and Naomi Watts led horror thriller Shut In debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

After the massive opening of Marvel’s Doctor Strange, it appears unlikely that any of the newbies will prevent it from a second weekend atop the charts (unless Arrival majorly over performs). Benedict Cumberbatch and company should drop in the mid 50s, which should be more than good enough for box office domination.

The real battle could be for the #2 spot as Trolls may not even lose 40% of its audience from its impressive premiere. That could leave it and Arrival in close range for runner-up status. However, the somewhat low 2200 screen count for the Amy Adams tale could push its gross to low to mid 20s.

I’m expecting Almost Christmas will have a merry 4th place debut in the high teens with Hacksaw Ridge rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

My meager Shut In prediction at $5.7 million leaves it outside the top 5 and likely in the 6th spot.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my opening weekend takes on the newbies:

Arrival – 41% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 24% Too High

Almost Christmas – 46% Just About Right, 31% Too Low, 23% Too High

Shut In – 60% Just About Right, 40% Too Low, 0% Too High

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the busy weekend ahead:

1. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $37.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

3. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

4. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

5. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (November 4-6)

As predicted, Doctor Strange posted the 10th highest debut (out of 14) of the Marvel Cinematic Universe thus far, though it managed to top my estimate. The well-reviewed superhero origin tale brought in a terrific $85 million compared to my $77.3M prognosis for what is surely another franchise for the studio.

Dreamworks Animation has reason to smile as Trolls also exceeded expectations to the tune of $46.5 million (ahead of my $34.6M estimate) for a hair raising second place debut. Look for this to play well throughout the month and reach an eventual domestic gross close to $150M.

And the third newcomer of the weekend also performed solidly as Mel Gibson’s acclaimed war drama Hacksaw Ridge made $15.1 million (outpacing my $12.1M projection). The pic stands a good chance of playing well throughout awards season.

After two weeks unexpectedly at #1, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween fell to fourth with $7.7 million. My prediction? $7.7M! It’s earned $64M total.

Inferno continued to its ice cold performance in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $6.8M) to bring its tally to just $25M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Advertisements

One thought on “Box Office Predictions: November 11-13

  1. Yo Todd!

    We’re winding down another box office season, my friend. I’m glad our little game is far less tumultuous than the Presidential election was 😉

    Almost Christmas – $15.8M
    The Arrival – $18.5M
    Shut In – $3.2M

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s