Box Office Predictions: December 23-26

Ho Ho Ho!!!

It’s Christmas weekend at the box office and it’s expected to be a bustling one as five new pictures open in wide release, an Oscar front runner continues to expand, and the second weekend of Rogue One is upon us.

The five newbies are: animated musical Sing, Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci fi romantic thriller Passengers, video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed with Michael Fassbender, James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him?, and Denzel Washington family drama Fences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/sing-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/passengers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/assassins-creed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/why-him-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/fences-box-office-prediction/

When it comes to crunching the numbers for the fresh product, one must consider the release dates of each. Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s Creed all debut this Wednesday. Why Him? will be out Friday. Fences won’t be out until Christmas Day on Sunday, so it’s only two days of grosses to factor in for it.

As I see it, Sing should rather easily be tops among the newbies with Passengers in third. I do wonder if the mostly negative reviews for the J. Law title could hinder it, but I’m still going with a low 40s four-day. I have Creed and Why Him? rounding out the top five with Fences managing a seventh place showing for its 48 hour haul.

As for the second weekend of Rogue One, a 40% dip would put it in the low  90s and that would be good for the 4th largest second weekend of all time. Last year’s record setter The Force Awakens fell just 39% in its sophomore frame (and that was just 3 day gross) for a $149M gross.

As for other holdovers, the holiday weekend typically sees either small drops (and sometimes slight increases) and that’s reflected in my estimates. Additionally, La La Land (currently on 200 screens) is expected to triple its theater count and it should experience a more significant bump.

And with that- I’m doing a top ten predictions for this crazy four-day weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $92.8 million (representing a 40% drop)

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)

4. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (Friday to Monday), $28.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

6. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 21%)

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)

8. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

9. Office Christmas Party 

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

 

10. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (December 16-18)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story blasted off with an impressive $155 million, good for the 12th largest domestic debut of all time. While it didn’t match my generous $168.3M projection, this is still a fine start for the first spin-off in the heralded franchise and its A Cinemascore grade bodes well for its second weekend and beyond.

Another Disney title – their animated hit Moana – was second with $12.7 million (above my $9M estimate) for a $162M total.

Office Christmas Party was third in its second weekend with $8.5 million, ahead of my $7.1M forecast for a tally of $31M.

The news was not so festive for Will Smith as his critically drubbed Collateral Beauty gave the star his worst wide opening of his career. It made just $7.1 million, well under my $11.4M prediction. I’ve got it experiencing a meager decline over Christmas weekend, but any way you look at it, this is a huge disappointment.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was fourth with $5 million (in line with my $4.8M take) for a $207M haul.

Two Oscar contenders held the six and seven spots. Manchester by the Sea earned $4.2 million in its expansion (I was close with $4.4M) for a total of just over $14M. The aforementioned La La Land continued its sizzling per screen averages with $4.1 million (I said $4.2M) to put its take at just over $5M. As mentioned, it should continue to impress over the holidays and awards season.

And that does it for now, folks! Wishing you a Merry Christmas this weekend and and hopefully a joyous time at the movies…

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One thought on “Box Office Predictions: December 23-26

  1. Best wishes for a very Merry Christmas to you and yours, Todd.

    Here’s my numbers for the coming weekend (Fri – Mon).

    Sing – $48.6M
    Passengers – $33.3M
    Why Me? – $11.1M
    Fences – $6.1M
    Assassin’s Creed – $17.2

    Todd – Once again, thanks for letting me play along with you. I look forward to what 2017 brings….we really need to get together and do a podcast on these predictions we do 🙂

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