Box Office Predictions: December 2-4

The first weekend of December will be filled by Thanksgiving leftovers as only one newbie debuts this weekend: supernatural horror pic Incarnate starring Aaron Eckhart. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/24/incarnate-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m expecting Incarnate to bomb with just a $1.7 million opening, meaning it shouldn’t come close to the top 5.

When it comes to holdovers, Disney’s Moana should easily top the charts in its second weekend. I’m estimating it will lose close to half its opening frame audience. Fantastic Beasts should hold the runner-up spot.

The real drama could be for #3 as I expect Doctor Strange, Allied, and Arrival to each make about the same amount. The post Thanksgiving weekend usually sees pretty large declines for returning product and I expect this year to be no different.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (November 25-27)

As anticipated, Disney ruled the Turkey Day holiday frame as their acclaimed animated title Moana was #1. It grossed $56.6 million over Friday to Sunday (right on target with my $56.4M estimate) and $82 million since its Wednesday roll-out (topping my $77.2M projection). Look for the ‘toon to play well over the next month.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them displayed a far better hold than I gave it credit for at second with $45 million as opposed to my $34.9M prediction. The J.K. Rowling would-be franchise has taken in $156M thus far.

Marvel’s Doctor Strange was third with $13.7 million, in line with my $14M prediction to bring its haul to $205M.

The Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard World War II romantic thriller Allied suffered a ho-hum 4th place showing. It made $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $17.7 million since its Wednesday bow, coming in under my respective forecasts of $14.2M and $21.1M.

Arrival displayed a strong hold in its third frame at #5 with $11.4 million (above my $8.6M prediction) for a $62M total.

Trolls came in sixth with $10.6 million (I went a little higher at $12.7M) for $135M overall.

Audiences greeted Bad Santa 2 with little enthusiasm as it debuted in seventh place to just $6.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $9.1 million since Wednesday, a bit below my guesstimates of $8.1M and $10.8M.

Almost Christmas was eighth with $5.6 million (I said $4.7M) for a $34M haul.

Mel Gibson’s directorial comeback Hacksaw Ridge was ninth with $5.5 million (I said $5.1M) to bring its pleasing earnings to $52M.

I incorrectly had The Edge of Seventeen outside of the top ten in its second weekend. It earned $2.9 million to bring its small gross just over $10M.

That’s because I gave too much credit to Warren Beatty’s return to the big screen in Rules Don’t Apply. The pic debuted with an extremely disappointing $1.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday. That’s good for just 12th place and well shy of my $4.8M and $6.3M prognoses.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

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