Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: March 3-5

The month of March at the box office claws its way into theaters with three new releases premiering. They are: Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine in Logan, faith-based drama The Shack, and teen thriller Before I Fall. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/23/logan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/24/the-shack-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/25/before-i-fall-box-office-prediction/

Logan, with some of the greatest reviews of the X-Men franchise, should easily top the charts. It’s worth noting that my mid-60s forecast is a bit lower than some others. We shall see.

I’m expecting sub double digit openings for the other two newcomers, with The Shack landing in fourth and Before I Fall in sixth.

Critically lauded horror pic Get Out had a spectacular opening (more on that below) and I expect a rather small sophomore decline. It should have no trouble placing second. That leaves other holdovers The Lego Batman Movie in third and John Wick: Chapter 2 at fifth.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Logan

Predicted Gross: $68.6 million

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $20 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

6. Before I Fall

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

With its red hot buzz and perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, Jordan Peele’s Get Out got off to a scorching start with a $33.3 million opening – blazing past my meager $16.3M prediction. With a budget of reportedly under $5 million, this is a massively profitable venture for Blumhouse.

The Lego Batman Movie slipped to second to $19.2 million, a bit shy of my $22.1M projection for a three week total of $133M.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.4M forecast for a $74M overall gross. The Great Wall was fourth in its second weekend with $9.1 million (I said $8.2M) for a lackluster tally of $34M. Fifty Shades Darker rounded out the top five with $7.7 million in weekend #3, under my $9.9M prediction. Its total is at $103M.

Two other newcomers failed to make any impression with moviegoers. The animated Rock Dog was 11th with $3.7 million, in line with my $4.4M prediction. Action thriller Collide was DOA in 13th with $1.5 million, not even my matching my $2.1M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 24-26

It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/get-out-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/rock-dog-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/collide-box-office-prediction/

The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).

Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.

And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)

4. John Wick: Chapter 2 

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.

Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.

Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.

The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.

Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 17-20

President’s Day weekend has arrived at the box office with three new titles debuting over the four-day holiday frame: Matt Damon’s action epic The Great Wall, Ice Cube/Charlie Day comedy Fist Fight, and Gore Verbinski’s horror thriller A Cure for Wellness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/the-great-wall-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/fist-fight-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/09/a-cure-for-wellness-box-office-prediction/

None of the trio is likely to dislodge the Caped Crusader and his Lego friends from the top perch in its second weekend. In fact, this particular February weekend often sees holdovers experience smallish declines. The Lego Movie dipped just 9% in the 2014 PD weekend and I expect the same type of minor dip for its spin-off.

With the #1 film safely (I think) determined, the rest of the top five is much more unpredictable. Looking over the past few President’s Day weekends, newbies opening in the mid to high 20s is commonplace. This applied to titles such as Unknown, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, About Last Night, and Robocop. I foresee both Wall and Fight falling in this range for a photo finish for #2.

Then there’s Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick: Chapter 2, both in their sophomore weekends. I don’t see Darker having a 74% drop like its predecessor Fifty Shades of Grey experienced (it had a much bigger opening for one thing). However, I could see it losing half its audience easily as grosses for this franchise are front loaded. Wick may lose less than a third of its debut crowd for a solid hold. And that could create another photo finish between these sequels.

This leaves A Cure for Wellness. Strong reviews may have helped this, but it’s not getting them and I’m diagnosing just a low double digits premiere for a probable sixth place showing.

And with that, my top 6 projections for this busy weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $49.4 million (representing a drop of 6%)

2. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

3. Fist Fight

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million

4. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)

5. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. A Cure for Wellness

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (February 10-12)

The Lego Batman Movie took the top spot, though not with as much ease as many thought it would. The critically acclaimed animated spin-off grossed $53 million, a decent number but not near the $69M made by The Lego Movie in its inaugural weekend and under my $65.8M projection. That said, as mentioned above, its drop this weekend should be slight.

Fifty Shades Darker opened in second at $46.6 million, in line with my $44.8M estimate. This is far from the $85 million achieved two years back by Fifty Shades of Grey, but it’s actually above some of the predictions from prognosticators in the past week or so.

John Wick: Chapter 2 capitalized on the goodwill left over from the 2014 original with a strong $30.4 million, more than doubling the $14M earned by its predecessor two and a half years back. It easily eclipsed my $20.7M estimate.

Holdovers rounded out the top five with Split dropping to fourth at $9.5 million (I said $8.2M) for a $112M total and Hidden Figures at fifth with $8 million (I said $6.9M) for a $131M overall haul.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 10-12

It’s a bustling weekend of sequels and spin-offs as three new high-profile releases debut: animated spin-off The Lego Batman Movie, risque sequel Fifty Shades Darker, and Keanu Reeves action follow-up John Wick: Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/the-lego-batman-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/01/fifty-shades-darker-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/john-wick-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the trio of newcomers should have no trouble placing 1st-3rd on the charts. Lego is highly likely to come out on top and I’ve got making a bit less than the $69 million earned by The Lego Movie in 2014.

Prognosticators are pegging Fifty Shades Darker to earn about half of the fantastic $85 million made by Fifty Shades of Grey two years ago. That sounds about right.

The original John Wick from 2014 has turned into a cult hit after a decent box office performance and it looks to expand a bit on the $14 million debut of its predecessor.

The newbies should cause M. Night Shyamalan’s Split to fall to fourth place after three weeks at #1. The 5 spot could be a battle between A Dog’s Purpose, Hidden Figures, and Rings, but I’ll give Figures the slight edge.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $65.8 million

2. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. Split

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 43%

5. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 32%)

Box Office Results (February 3-5)

The Super Bowl weekend is typically a slower one at multiplexes and 2017 was no different. Split managed a three-peat in weekend #3 in the top spot as it grossed $14.4 million. My prediction? $14.4M! Yay! The Shyamalan hit stands at $98 million through the weekend and should pass the century mark today.

Audiences were more interested in Tom Brady’s rings than Rings, which disappointed at second with an unlucky $13 million. I went way higher with $20.3 million. It had been 12 years since the horror franchise was around and ambivalence to it was clearly shown. The pic is likely to experience a large drop in its sophomore frame and plummet right out of the top 5.

A Dog’s Purpose was third with $10.5 million, shy of my $12.5M forecast for a two-week total of $32M.

Hidden Figures was fourth with $10.1 million (in line with $10.7M prognosis) for a $119M overall tally as $150M looks well within its sights.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I said $8.3M) for a $118M haul as it dances its way to probable Oscar glory.

Finally, the oft delayed teenage sci-fi romance The Space Between Us bombed in ninth place with a measly $3.7 million debut compared to my $6.7M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 3-5

The first weekend of February brings new titles to the marketplace to compete with holdovers and a football game on Sunday. They are: long gestating horror sequel Rings and sci-fi teen romance The Space Between Us. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/25/rings-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/26/the-space-between-us-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, both The Bye Bye Man and Split exceeded their opening weekend expectations (more on the terrific Split earnings below). It’s been a bountiful 2017 thus far for the horror genre and I believe Rings will debut just north of $20M for a first place showing.

The Space Between Us should struggle to reach the top 5 and my mid single digits forecast for it leaves it on the outside. Current #1 and #2 Split and A Dog’s Purpose should slide down a spot with awards hopefuls Hidden Figures and La La Land rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Rings

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 24%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. The Space Between Us

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (January 27-29)

If the $40 million opening didn’t convince you, the second weekend of Split solidified director M. Night Shyamalan’s major comeback. The horror thriller took in $25.6 million in its sophomore frame (higher than my $18.5M forecast) to bring its total to $77 million. The century mark is in its sights and it experienced the smallest week 2 decline of any Shyamalan effort since The Sixth Sense.

Despite controversy, A Dog’s Purpose brought in a pleasing $18.2 million for a solid second place showing. This was much more than my $10.3M projection, which I revised down from an original estimate of $17.9M. Should have stuck with my first thought…

Hidden Figures (which won the main SAG prize yesterday) was third with $14 million compared to my $12.8M prediction. The Oscar nominee now stands at $104M.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter posted a franchise low debut in fourth with just $13.6 million, just below my $14.6M estimate. Look for it to fade fast.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $12.2 million, above my $9.9M guesstimate. Like Figures, it also joined the $100M+ club as it’s made $106M.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.6 million, in line with my $8.9M estimate for a weak tally of $33M.

Sing was seventh with $6.4 million (I said $5.6M) to pad its now $257M take.

Finally, Matthew McConaughey posted a career low wide opening with Gold. It only managed a 10th place debut with $3.4 million (I went higher with $5.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 27-29

Three new titles debut this weekend, but none in the trio may dislodge Split from a second weekend atop the charts. The newbies are: sixth and presumably last franchise pic Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, family friendly pet tale A Dog’s Purpose, and Matthew McConaughey vehicle Gold. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Purpose Box Office Prediction

Gold Box Office Prediction

We’ll begin with Resident Evil. While all other entries in the series have managed over $20 million (except for the first in 2002), the near five-year gap between sequels should hurt this, similar to how it just hurt Underworld: Blood Wars. Still, a second place showing looks probable.

That brings us to A Dog’s Purpose. Based on a hugely successful bestseller, I had this pegged at nearly $18 million until last week when a TMZ story alleged very questionable animal handling practices on set. My feeling is that the story has gotten big enough to hurt this significantly and I now have it barely topping double digits.

As for Gold, middling reviews could hinder this one and I’ve got it outside the top five with mid single digits.

Returning champ Split had a much larger than expected debut (more on that below). Even if it dips more than 50% (typical for horror titles), I still see it remaining #1.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage had an unimpressive opening and I expect it to fall from #2 to #6. That’s because both Hidden Figures and La La Land should reap the benefits of Oscar nominations. La La, in particular, looks poised to receive the most Academy nods of any picture in history tomorrow morning and that could contribute to a bump.

And with that, my top 8 predictions for this weekend:

1. Split 

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 53%)

2. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 18&)

6. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)

7. Sing

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

8. Gold

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (January 20-22)

On the weekend that we just had, maybe it’s somewhat appropriate and ironic that the #1 movie in America is titled Split. And the M. Night Shymalan pic rocketed out of the gate with a fantastic and unforeseen $40.1 million, more than doubling my teeny $19.6M estimate. This is the director’s fourth highest domestic debut, trailing Signs, The Village, and The Last Airbender. It puts the director, who’d been on a downturn until 2015’s low-budget The Visit performed well, on even more of an upswing.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage managed a middling $20.1 million in second, under my $25.4M prediction. The Diesel power is clearly stronger with his Fast and Furious franchise.

Two-week champ Hidden Figures was third with $15.7 million (a bit above my $13.7M forecast) for $83M thus far.

Sing was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.4M) to bring its tally to $249M.

Fifth place belonged to La La Land with $8.4 million (not matching my $11.4M estimate) for an $89M total. Still, as mentioned, its Oscar bump could be forthcoming.

Rogue One was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $7.8M) for a $512M haul.

#7 – Monster Trucks in weekend #2 with $7 million (I said $6.2M). Total gross: $22M.

#8 – Patriots Day, also in weekend #2 of wide release with $5.7 million (I said $7.2M). Total gross: $23M.

#9 – Sleepless in its sophomore frame with $3.4M and #10 was The Bye Bye Man, also with $3.4M in weekend 2. My respective guesstimates were $4.3M and $5.9M.

The Founder with Michael Keaton opened to stale results with $3.4 million in 11th, a bit shy of my $4.1M estimate.

Finally, two other newcomers posted low numbers as 20th Century Women expanded wide and made $1.4 million (I was higher with $2.8M) and faith-based dramedy The Resurrection of Gavin Stone earned $1.3 million (I said $1.6M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 20-22

As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/split-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/the-resurrection-of-gavin-stone-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land. 

As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.

And here is that top 10 from where I see it:

1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)

5. Sing

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

10. Sleepless 

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 13-16)

Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.

The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.

La La Land sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.

The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic The Bye Bye Man. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.

Kiddie flick Monster Trucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.

Patriots Day with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.

The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.

Underworld: Blood Wars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.

Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.

Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s Live by Night. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.

Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.

That does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 13-16

Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.

Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.

My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.

Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:

1. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)

2. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. Sing

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)

6. Live by Night

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

7. Sleepless

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

10. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.

Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.

Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.

Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.

The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:

6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million

7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million

8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.

9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.

10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.

Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: January 6-8

The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful Hidden Figures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: Blood Wars, and sci-fi drama A Monster Calls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/a-monster-calls-box-office-prediction/

Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of Rogue One and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.

As for Blood Wars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.

La La Land is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likely outside of the top ten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

4. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

6. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $9 million

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

8. Moana

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

9. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $6 million

10. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)

The four-day New Years weekend gave Rogue One its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.

Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.

Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.

Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.

Rounding out the top five was Why Him? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.

In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.

Oscar favorite La La Land expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.

Eighth place: Assassin’s Creed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.

The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and Manchester by the Sea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).

Collateral Beauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. Office Christmas Party was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 30-January 2

Well, it’s both the final box office weekend of 2016 and first one of 2017 and that means four-day holiday estimates once again. There are no new titles premiering over the New Years frame as Christmas holdovers look to dominate the charts.

During the last two years where we saw New Years Day fall on a Sunday (2005, 2011), returning films routinely saw increases compared to the three-day portion of the Christmas weekend. While many may not match the four-day takes of the previous weekend, I wouldn’t look for any precipitous drops for anything.

Bottom line – this weekend should look a whole lot like the one that just concluded with Rogue One and Sing easily in the one and two spots, some Oscar hopefuls continuing their stellar runs, and some Christmas disappointments (more on that below) hoping for a soft cushion in their sophomore frames.

With that, we’ll do a top 10 Estimates for the Friday to Monday weekend ahead:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $79.9 million

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $56.6 million

3. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

4. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

5. Moana

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

6. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

7. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $10 million

8. Fences

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

9. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

10. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 23–26)

As expected, Rogue One ruled the holiday box office, bringing in $96.1 million over the Friday to Monday Christmas weekend. This is just over my $92.8M prediction to bring its total to a merry $318 million.

Illumination Entertainment’s animated Sing posted a strong second place debut to the tune of $55.8 million from Friday to Monday and $75.5 million since its Wednesday opening (in line with my respective estimates of $55.3M and $74.1M).

The news was not quite as jolly for the Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci-fi thriller Passengers. Met with generally mediocre reviews, the pic made $30 million since its Wednesday premiere and $22.6 million over the weekend. My prognoses were higher at $42M and $31.4M.

James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him? had a decent opening with $15.5 million, a bit above my $13.2M prediction. It could enjoy a nice hold this weekend.

Video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed posted unimpressive results with $14.8 million from Friday to Monday and $22.2 million since Wednesday, not reaching my predictions of $19.8M and $28.1M.

Disney’s Moana earned $12.5 million (compared to my $10.1M forecast) for a $185 million haul.

Denzel Washington’s Fences took in a healthy $11.6 million (I was lower at $8.6M) in just two days as it opened on Christmas.

Another strong Oscar hopeful, La La Land, also expanded on the holiday and brought in $9.2 million. I was lower again with a $7.5M estimate.

Office Christmas Party made $7 million (I said $6.2M) to bring its gross to $44M.

Finally, Will Smith flop Collateral Beauty rounded out the top ten with $6.3 million (I said $5.3M) for an underwhelming tally of $17M.

**On a personal note and as a movie lover, I do want to mention the sad news of the day and simply say Rest In Peace to the great and iconic Carrie Fisher.

That does it for now. Until next time…