Box Office Predictions: January 13-16

Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.

Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.

My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourthOther newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.

Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:

1. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)

2. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. Sing

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)

6. Live by Night

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

7. Sleepless

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

10. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.

Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.

Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.

Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.

The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:

6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million

7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million

8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.

9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.

10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.

Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…


2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: January 13-16

  1. Yo Todd!!

    Nothing like having six releases to have to predict numbers for, the 2nd weekend (4-day) of the year!

    Here goes:
    Silence – $2.7M
    Patriots Day – $23M
    Monster Trucks – $6.3M
    Sleepless – $6
    Live by Night – $12.2M
    The Bye Bye Man – $8M

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