Box Office Predictions: January 20-22

As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land. 

As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.

And here is that top 10 from where I see it:

1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)

5. Sing

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

10. Sleepless 

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 13-16)

Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.

The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.

La La Land sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.

The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic The Bye Bye Man. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.

Kiddie flick Monster Trucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.

Patriots Day with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.

The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.

Underworld: Blood Wars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.

Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.

Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s Live by Night. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.

Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.

That does it for now! Until next time…

1 thought on “Box Office Predictions: January 20-22

  1. Yo Todd!

    Here’s this weekend’s numbers:
    Split – $25.7M
    XXX: Return of Xander Cage – $23.3M
    The Founder – $3.6M
    20th Century Women – $2M
    The Resurrection of Gavin Stone – $1.3M

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