As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.
American Fiction
Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.
Anatomy of a Fall
The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.
Barbie
Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.
The Holdovers
Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.
Maestro
Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.
Past Lives
Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.
Poor Things
The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.
The Zone of Interest
The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.
And that means my final 2023 five would be:
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!
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