Tag: Serenity

The Gentlemen Box Office Prediction

Director Guy Ritchie returns to the genre that made him known in the first place with crime comedy The Gentlemen next weekend. Matthew McConaughey headlines the pic that was already released in the United Kingdom on New Year’s Day to OK results. Costars include Charlie Hunnam, Henry Golding, Michelle Dockery, Jeremy Strong, Eddie Marsan, Colin Farrell, and Hugh Grant. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 75% with most reviewers claiming it doesn’t quite match the quality of earlier titles with similar plot themes.

Over 20 years ago, Ritchie burst onto the indie scene with his humorous gangster tale Long, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels and followed it up with the successful Snatch. Later efforts in the genre like Revolver and RocknRolla failed to make a stateside impact. Over the past decade, the auteur has veered into blockbuster territory with the Sherlock Holmes franchise and last year’s massive hit Aladdin. 

As for its lead, McConaughey is badly in need of a solid performer. His filmography over the past few years has been littered with bombs (Gold, The Dark Tower, White Boy Rick, Serenity, The Beach Bum).

I suspect that The Gentlemen won’t be it. That said, it should certainly make more than Revolver (which didn’t get a stateside wide release) or RocknRolla (which topped out at $5 million). My forecast has McConaughey and company just below or just topping double digits for its start. I’ll go with the former.

The Gentlemen opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my The Turning prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/16/the-turning-box-office-prediction/

Serenity Movie Review

Steven Knight’s Serenity plays like a concept thought up after a long day and night of smoking weed. That concept, at least theoretically, would seem crazy and illogical in the morning. Yet somehow that realization never dawned on the writer and director and now we have Oscar winners starring in it. Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway could have easily spent the weeks filming this relaxing on an island similar to the beautiful one where this is set. They made this instead and it will forever be on their record.

The Lincoln pitchman plays Baker Dill, a hard drinking fishing boat captain. He lives in Plymouth, a tropical locale surrounded by water and an elusive tuna fish that he’s obsessed with catching. One day his ex flame Karen (Hathaway) shows up. They were high school sweethearts whose romance was cut short when he was deployed overseas. They have a teenage son who doesn’t see his dad anymore, but they seem to share an almost (ahem) interstellar connection. Karen is now married to abusive monster Frank (Jason Clarke). She offers Baker $10 million dollars to take him out – on the boat and in the murderous sense. He initially rejects the idea, but a bizarre (and I do mean bizarre) twist complicates matters.

There’s really no more plot left to ponder unless I enter spoiler territory. And if you wish to see Serenity (which you’ll likely regret), I won’t be the one to spill the beans. The film often plays like a hammy noir complete with overacting from its two Academy Award recipients. Djimon Hounsou turns up as the captain’s first mate while Diane Lane is his love interest. Her character solely exists for exposition conversations after they have sex.

Serenity succeeds or fails based on a willingness to buy the whacked out concept. For me, it certainly failed. I am almost in awe that Knight got the money to try. By its conclusion, it attempts to tug your heartstrings with more force than it takes to reel in that giant tuna fish. It succeeded more in tickling my funny bone and in an unintentional way.

*1/2 (out of four)

After Box Office Prediction

Upstart distributor Aviron Pictures hopes to bring in young romantics this weekend with After. Based on a 2014 novel by Anna Todd, the college set drama casts relative unknowns Hero Fiennes-Tiffin (nephew of Ralph) and Josephine Langford. Jenny Gage directs with costars including Selma Blair, Peter Gallagher, and Jennifer Beals.

As mentioned, Aviron is a new player in the business. Their first effort, 2017 Halle Berry thriller Kidnap, exceeded expectations a bit. Their previous release before this – Serenity – was an embarrassing flop.

This may fall somewhere in the middle. Its approximate 2000 screens is the lowest of the four new releases this weekend. It might be lucky to hit $5 million and probably won’t. That’s nothing special at all, but its budget has to be fairly small.

After opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BNLta4nDM10

For my Hellboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/03/hellboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Little prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/06/little-box-office-prediction/

For my Missing Link prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/05/missing-link-box-office-prediction/

McConaughey: Everything’s Not Alright Alright

When this blog started in the fall of 2012, Matthew McConaughey was coming off a solid two-year period which saw him headline the surprise legal drama hit The Lincoln Lawyer and attract rave reviews for his supporting role in Magic Mike.

Yet 2013 elevated the actor to a whole new stratosphere. His work in the acclaimed indie pic Mud garnered Oscar chatter. He had a memorable cameo alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It ironically turned out that McConaughey’s scene partner in that film was his biggest competition for an Oscar. Dallas Buyers Club would see the Texan playing Ron Woodruff, a real life AIDS patient in the 1980s. McConaughey’s work was praised and he took home the gold statue. His luck streak continued into the following year starring in Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, which stands as his largest grossing live-action feature.

Since then? Well, let’s just say the McConaissance has been interrupted. Or borrowing his most famous catchphrase from 1993’s Dazed and Confused – it’s not Alright Alright.

This weekend, his stoner comedy The Beach Bum tanked at the box office. Its approximate $1.8 million opening is the worst release of the actor’s career. And it follows a pattern of now seven live-action duds (he did provide voice work in the animated pics Sing and Kubo and the Two Strings). And to give a modicum of credit, he did skip the subpar sequel Magic Mike XXL.

At least Nicolas Cage had a string of action hits after his Oscar before delving into VOD territory. McConaughey hasn’t been so fortunate and he quickly needs a critical or commercial success to redeem things. His list of recent material is an unsuccessful and largely forgettable one. In three years, we’ve had:

  • Free State of Jones, his summer 2016 Civil War drama that took in $20 million domestically against a $50 million budget. Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 46%.
  • The Sea of Trees from later that summer. The drama wasn’t even released wide and didn’t make a million dollars (13% RT score).
  • True life crime drama Gold in January 2017. 42% RT. $14 million gross stateside.
  • The Dark Tower in summer 2017. The critically maligned Stephen King adaptation had a 16% RT rating and immediately ended the possibility of a franchise with earnings of $50 million.
  • Another based on actual events crime drama from last fall – White Boy Rick. 58% RT and $24 million gross.
  • Noir thriller Serenity from earlier this year. Barely promoted, it made an embarrassing $8 million total with a 23% RT score.

And now The Beach Bum, which won’t reach $10 million domestically either. It’s time for McConaughey’s people to find him some better stuff. His most memorable appearances lately have been in car commercials. If they can’t manage to do so, there’s always 2013.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5jr7Vsw7brg

February 1-3 Box Office Predictions

It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller Miss Bala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/25/miss-bala-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and The Upside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.

The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and The Kid Who Would Be King, but with the possibility that Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for Green Book could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.

With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. Miss Bala

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $5 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (January 25–27)

Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).

The Upside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.

Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.

The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick The Kid Who Would Be King got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.

Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Two new titles attempt to gather eyeballs this weekend with the kiddie rendering of the King Arthur legend The Kid Who Would Be King and Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway thriller Serenity. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/17/serenity-box-office-prediction/

I’ll say the Kid manages to just top double digits and that could give it a second place showing. As for Serenity, my mid single digits forecast of $5.1 million puts it just outside the top five in sixth.

Current champ Glass should have little trouble staying in first place, but I am predicting a sophomore frame drop of over 50% due to middling critical and audience reaction.

Holdovers The Upside, Aquaman, and Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse should round out the top half of the charts. As for Dragon Ball Super: Broly, it debuted with terrific results this past weekend (more on that below). However, I anticipate a front-loaded nature for its earnings and a fall in the mid 50s range. That puts it outside the top 5 in my view.

Here are my projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Kid Who Would Be King

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (January 18–21)

The long MLK weekend saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass rule with the third highest opening of this particular holiday at $46.5 million. That is a bit below expectations and under my $58.1 million estimate. However, it nearly doubled its reported $25 million budget in four days.

The Upside went down to second with $18.3 million, ahead of my $15.4 million prediction. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama stands at a strong $46 million after two weeks.

Aquaman was third with $12.7 million (I said $13.8 million) as it crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.

The aforementioned Dragon Ball Super: Broly was fourth with a fantastic $11.9 million over the traditional weekend and $22 million since its Wednesday premiere. I’ll sheepishly admit that the anime feature was not properly on my radar and I didn’t do a projection for it.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse was in the five-spot with $10.1 million compared to my guesstimate of $8.3 million. Overall haul is $161 million.

A Dog’s Way Home was sixth at $9.9 million (I said $9.1 million) for a two-week tally of $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Serenity Box Office Prediction

Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway lend their star power to the thriller Serenity, out next weekend. The pic was originally slated for a fall 2018 release before its delay to January, which can often serve as a dumping ground for certain titles. Steven Knight directs with Diane Lane, Jason Clarke, Djimon Hounsou, and Jeremy Strong in the supporting cast.

The studio seems to be treating this as an afterthought. Marketing has been pretty slim. While McConaughey has had some hits since his Oscar win five years ago, there’s been some flops including Free State of Jones, Gold, and White Boy Rick. Hathaway has a better track record as of late, but I’m not convinced her participation will help matters.

Serenity has a $25 million budget, so at least its potential losses shouldn’t be too significant. Like the trio of previous McConaughey titles, I don’t have this hitting double digits.

Serenity opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Kid Who Would Be King prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/