The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Another canine dramedy hits screens next weekend with The Art of Racing in the Rain. Based on a 2008 book by Garth Stein, the human stars are Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried with supporting work from Kathy Baker and Gary Cole. Kevin Costner provides the voice of lead dog Enzo. Simon Curtis directs. This is the first feature made by Fox where new owner Disney has handled the marketing.

Even the Mouse Factory’s expertise at selling product may not enough for Rain to break out of the pack of recent genre fare. In January, A Dog’s Way Home debuted to just over $11 million. In May, A Dog’s Journey did $8 million for its start. I believe the latter scenario is where this lands.

The Art of Racing in the Rain opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/dora-and-the-lost-city-of-gold-box-office-prediction/

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-kitchen-box-office-prediction/

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-box-office-prediction/

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/04/brian-banks-box-office-prediction/

A Dog’s Journey Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Journey finds its way to theaters next weekend and it comes without the controversy that greeted its predecessor. In 2017, A Dog’s Purpose got in some water when video surfaced of an animal being mistreated on set. The film managed to turn into a decent sized hit with an opening just north of $18 million and $64 eventual domestic gross. That’s enough to warrant a sequel and Journey is also based on a book by W. Bruce Cameron. Gail Mancuso takes over directorial duties from Lasse Hallstrom. Josh Gad is back voicing the lead canine and costars include Dennis Quaid, Marg Helgenberger, and Betty Gilpin.

I’m not confident that Journey will follow the same box office path as Purpose did with its high teens range. I do think it’ll manage to top 2019’s A Dog’s Way Home, which premiered to $11.2 million. A gross just under the teens seems like the right call.

A Dog’s Journey opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

January 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Two new titles attempt to gather eyeballs this weekend with the kiddie rendering of the King Arthur legend The Kid Who Would Be King and Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway thriller Serenity. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/17/serenity-box-office-prediction/

I’ll say the Kid manages to just top double digits and that could give it a second place showing. As for Serenity, my mid single digits forecast of $5.1 million puts it just outside the top five in sixth.

Current champ Glass should have little trouble staying in first place, but I am predicting a sophomore frame drop of over 50% due to middling critical and audience reaction.

Holdovers The Upside, Aquaman, and SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse should round out the top half of the charts. As for Dragon Ball Super: Broly, it debuted with terrific results this past weekend (more on that below). However, I anticipate a front-loaded nature for its earnings and a fall in the mid 50s range. That puts it outside the top 5 in my view.

Here are my projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Kid Who Would Be King

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (January 1821)

The long MLK weekend saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass rule with the third highest opening of this particular holiday at $46.5 million. That is a bit below expectations and under my $58.1 million estimate. However, it nearly doubled its reported $25 million budget in four days.

The Upside went down to second with $18.3 million, ahead of my $15.4 million prediction. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama stands at a strong $46 million after two weeks.

Aquaman was third with $12.7 million (I said $13.8 million) as it crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.

The aforementioned Dragon Ball Super: Broly was fourth with a fantastic $11.9 million over the traditional weekend and $22 million since its Wednesday premiere. I’ll sheepishly admit that the anime feature was not properly on my radar and I didn’t do a projection for it.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse was in the five-spot with $10.1 million compared to my guesstimate of $8.3 million. Overall haul is $161 million.

A Dog’s Way Home was sixth at $9.9 million (I said $9.1 million) for a two-week tally of $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/08/glass-box-office-prediction/

While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s American Sniper.

With no new wide releases out, The Upside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, A Dog’s Way Home, and SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse should fill out the rest of the top five.

My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $72.1 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

5. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (January 1113)

As mentioned, The Upside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.

Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.

A Dog’s Way Home had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.

Escape Room was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.

The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.

Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Three newbies make their way to the screen this weekend as canine tale A Dog’s Way Home, Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama The Upside, and the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/a-dogs-way-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/

Even with the trio of openings, it appears Aquaman will glide into a fourth straight weekend atop the charts with a high teens take. The superhero saga’s reign will certainly end the following weekend with Glass being unveiled.

Other titles will likely struggle to reach the teens. I have Dog’s managing a #2 showing with The Upside not far behind.

Replicas appears to be getting dumped and my $3.4 million projection leaves it well outside the top five. We have an expansion with On the Basis of Sex, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic that’s performed well in limited release and is slated for approximately 2000 screens Friday. I’ll put its number at $7.9 million. I believe that gets it to a 7th place rollout.

Returnees Escape Room and Mary Poppins Returns are my picks for the rest of the high-five and here’s the estimates:

1. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

2. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

3. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Escape Room

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

Box Office Results (January 46)

As anticipated, Aquaman logged another frame in first place with $31 million, topping my $27.9 million projection for an impressive $260 million three-week total.

New horror thriller Escape Room made off with a terrific $18.2 million start in second, more than doubling its meager $9 million budget.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to third in its third weekend with $15.8 million compared to my higher $18.7 million prediction. Total tally is $138 million.

Bumblebee was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.2 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $97 million.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse rounded out the top five with $13.1 million, slinging beyond my $10.9 million forecast. It’s made $133 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Dog’s Way Home Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping A Dog’s Way Home will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made Dolphin Tale and its sequel, directs.

When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, A Dog’s Purpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, Megan Leavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, Dog Days managed just $2.5 million.

My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.

A Dog’s Way Home opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my The Upside prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

For my Replicas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/