Emma is the latest adaptation of the 1815 Jane Austen novel and it’s out this weekend in limited release and posting solid numbers. This version stars Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role. She’s best known for her work in the horror genre with The Witch, Split, and Glass. Reviews are praising with a current 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
The film marks the debut of director Autumn de Wilde and arrives at an awfully early frame for awards voters to remember it. One of the last renderings of the book was in 1996 with Gwyneth Paltrow starring. It opened in the summer of that year and nabbed Oscar nods for Costume Design and Score. The former category is certainly a possibility. However, like what came before nearly a quarter century ago, I am skeptical this Emma contends for top of the line races.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise for this to be placed in the Musical/Comedy lane at the Golden Globes. We have seen years where the Actress derby there is rather weak (including in 2019 when none of the five nominees managed Academy recognition). That could allow Taylor-Joy to be noticed at the Globes. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
If nothing else, M. Night Shyamalan is audacious and I have always admired that. He likes to swing away at the cinematic fences and in Glass, he melds two of his pictures into a new universe. It’s ultimately not a very satisfying one, but the guy tries hard.
At the end of 2017’s Split, which returned the filmmaker to box office prominence, it was revealed that what we watched existed in the same realm of 2000’s Unbreakable. It did so by bringing in David Dunn (Bruce Willis). As you may recall, Dunn was the lone survivor of a train derailment who came to realize he was impervious to pain. Comic book store owner Elijah Price (Samuel L. Jackson), suffering from a disease that cause his bones to break easily, surmised that David was a superhero. And Elijah was the arch nemesis as the 2000 flick revealed he was the evil mastermind behind the train going off the track.
In Split, we were introduced to James McAvoy’s Kevin and almost two dozen other characters that lived inside his head while he tormented teen girls that he kidnapped. From an annoying nine-year old boy to a OCD monster to a proper British dame, his personalities culminated with The Beast, who also possessed super human strength. The surprise ending suggested David will battle The Beast and low and behold – Split made more than enough money for that to occur.
This brings us to Glass. The first act allows this trio of characters to end up in the same mental institution with a psychiatrist (Sarah Paulson) attempting to dissuade them of their perceived powers. Dunn is sensitive to the possibility. The many voices of Kevin has his moments of doubt. Elijah, aka Mr. Glass, is so doped up that we’re not sure he knows what’s going on. However, fans of Unbreakable know the dude is a mastermind.
Glass brings back other characters from its double source material. Charlayne Woodard returns as Elijah’s supportive to a troubling degree mother. Spencer Treat Clark is back as David’s now grown son (Robin Wright skipped out as his wife). And Anya-Taylor Joy reprises her Split role as Kevin’s surviving kidnap victim. Her story arch here is easily the most inexplicable one in a movie filled with often strange choices.
My feelings with Unbreakable and Split are a bit against the grain from many others. I actually dug the former 19 years ago while many found out it to be a disappointing follow-up to TheSixthSense. As for the latter, I enjoyed McAvoy’s bonkers performance greatly but found it as a whole to be a mixed bag. The melding of the two worlds also fits that description. It’s got everything we expect from Shyamalan, including a twist ending or two. This time around, they land with less impact than earlier efforts.
McAvoy is still impressive, but we’ve seen this show before. Unbreakable set itself up perfectly for a world building sequel. Quite frankly, Glass made me realize I wish it hadn’t taken Split for us to get it. More of the Dunn/Elijah dynamic could have been rewarding without these other personalities in the way. Shyamalan’s personality shines through as always as he tries to overwhelm us with style and suspense. Like Split, the result is some memorable sequences amid numerous questionable ones and not the more cohesive whole that I found Unbreakable to be.
It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’tItRomantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both DeathDay and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first LegoMovie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.
That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with DeathDay part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.
That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with WhatMenWant rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.
1. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
Predicted Gross: $13 million
It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.
WhatMenWant opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.
Same story for ColdPursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.
On a rare positive note for this weekend, TheUpside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.
Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.
Horror flick TheProdigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.
After a sleepy box office weekend that’s normal for when the Super Bowl is played (which was sleepy as well), things pick up considerably in this second frame of February. There’s four newcomers that could populate those top four slots. They are the animated sequel TheLegoMovie2: The Second Part, Taraji P. Henson comedic remake WhatMenWant, Liam Neeson action thriller ColdPursuit, and horror flick TheProdigy. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
TheLego follow-up should have little trouble topping the charts, but I have it debuting significantly under the $69 million achieved by its predecessor four years ago.
I have WhatMenWant placing a strong second with ColdPursuit having a middling start in third. The five-spot could be a battle between TheProdigy and holdover TheUpside. The latter should experience a smaller drop than three-week champion Glass, which means it may fall from first to sixth.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Super Bowl weekends are never bountiful ones at multiplexes and that held true this year. It was the worst SB frame in 19 years. Glass stayed in 1st with $9.5 million, cutting close to my $9.8 million prediction. Its total is $88 million.
TheUpside was close behind in second with $8.6 million (I said $9.1 million) for $75 million overall.
Action flick MissBala was the sole newbie and it was third with $6.8 million, ahead of my $5.8 million forecast. That’s nothing special, but not too shabby considering the reported $15 million budget.
Aquaman was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5 million) for $323 million total. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.6 million). The Oscar favorite for Best Animated Feature is up to $175 million.
It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller MissBala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:
I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and TheUpside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.
The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and TheKidWhoWouldBeKing, but with the possibility that Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for GreenBook could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.
With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Predicted Gross: $5 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).
TheUpside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.
Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.
The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick TheKidWhoWouldBeKing got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.
Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.
Two new titles attempt to gather eyeballs this weekend with the kiddie rendering of the King Arthur legend TheKidWhoWouldBeKing and Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway thriller Serenity. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I’ll say the Kid manages to just top double digits and that could give it a second place showing. As for Serenity, my mid single digits forecast of $5.1 million puts it just outside the top five in sixth.
Current champ Glass should have little trouble staying in first place, but I am predicting a sophomore frame drop of over 50% due to middling critical and audience reaction.
Holdovers TheUpside, Aquaman, and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse should round out the top half of the charts. As for DragonBallSuper: Broly, it debuted with terrific results this past weekend (more on that below). However, I anticipate a front-loaded nature for its earnings and a fall in the mid 50s range. That puts it outside the top 5 in my view.
Here are my projections for the weekend ahead:
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
The long MLK weekend saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass rule with the third highest opening of this particular holiday at $46.5 million. That is a bit below expectations and under my $58.1 million estimate. However, it nearly doubled its reported $25 million budget in four days.
TheUpside went down to second with $18.3 million, ahead of my $15.4 million prediction. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama stands at a strong $46 million after two weeks.
Aquaman was third with $12.7 million (I said $13.8 million) as it crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
The aforementioned DragonBallSuper: Broly was fourth with a fantastic $11.9 million over the traditional weekend and $22 million since its Wednesday premiere. I’ll sheepishly admit that the anime feature was not properly on my radar and I didn’t do a projection for it.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was in the five-spot with $10.1 million compared to my guesstimate of $8.3 million. Overall haul is $161 million.
ADog’sWayHome was sixth at $9.9 million (I said $9.1 million) for a two-week tally of $24 million.
A juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale hits theaters next weekend with the family fantasy TheKidWhoWouldBeKing. It comes from director Joe Cornish, whose 2011 debut AttacktheBlock (marking the debut of John Boyega) was a critical favorite. This marks his awaited sophomore effort. The title character is played by newcomer Louis Ashbourne Serkis, son of motion capture king Andy. Costars include Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson, and Patrick Stewart.
Early reviews are encouraging with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%. It could help that the family friendly holiday holdovers have started to wane. That said, the marketing campaign hasn’t been robust and followers of the filmmaker’s first feature belong in a niche market.
I think Kid could manage to hit double digits while teens could be a reach. That might get it to second place next weekend behind the sophomore frame of Glass.
TheKidWhoWouldBeKing opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:
While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s AmericanSniper.
With no new wide releases out, TheUpside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, ADog’sWayHome, and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse should fill out the rest of the top five.
My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:
Predicted Gross: $72.1 million
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
As mentioned, TheUpside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.
Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.
ADog’sWayHome had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.
EscapeRoom was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.
MaryPoppinsReturns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.
The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic OntheBasisofSex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.
Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.
When it debuts over the MLK four-day holiday weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass will easily break into the number one spot. Questions about its potential ceiling are very real. The superhero thriller mixes the casts of two of the filmmaker’s best known works – 2000’s Unbreakable and 2017’s Split. That means James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson, Spencer Treat Clark and Anya-Taylor Joy are along for the ride as well as Sarah Paulson joining this cinematic universe. No other movie opens wide against it.
Just over 18 years ago, Unbreakable was Night’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to his breakthrough smash hit TheSixthSense. Audiences had a mixed reaction at the time, but it managed a five-day Thanksgiving haul of $46 million before a final domestic gross of $95 million. Its reputation has grown in many circles in time. Two years ago, Split served as a major comeback vehicle for the director with a $40 million start as it legged out to $138 million.
I believe the positive response for Split will earn this impressive results. It only helps that it’s still fresh in the minds of audiences, including the ending that set up this picture. Word-of-mouth will determine the rest.
Glass will not shatter this holiday weekend’s record, which is held by AmericanSniper at $107 million. Earning the #2 honors over MLK should be a breeze as that’s currently held by RideAlong at $48 million.
Prognostications have this nabbing anywhere between $50-75 million from Friday to Monday. I have a hunch the higher end of that range is the route to go.
*On the eve of its premiere, I’m downgrading from $72.1 million to $58.1 million
Glass opening weekend prediction: $58.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Three newbies make their way to the screen this weekend as canine tale ADog’sWayHome, Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama TheUpside, and the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even with the trio of openings, it appears Aquaman will glide into a fourth straight weekend atop the charts with a high teens take. The superhero saga’s reign will certainly end the following weekend with Glass being unveiled.
Other titles will likely struggle to reach the teens. I have Dog’s managing a #2 showing with TheUpside not far behind.
Replicas appears to be getting dumped and my $3.4 million projection leaves it well outside the top five. We have an expansion with OntheBasisofSex, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic that’s performed well in limited release and is slated for approximately 2000 screens Friday. I’ll put its number at $7.9 million. I believe that gets it to a 7th place rollout.
Returnees EscapeRoom and MaryPoppinsReturns are my picks for the rest of the high-five and here’s the estimates:
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
As anticipated, Aquaman logged another frame in first place with $31 million, topping my $27.9 million projection for an impressive $260 million three-week total.
New horror thriller EscapeRoom made off with a terrific $18.2 million start in second, more than doubling its meager $9 million budget.
MaryPoppinsReturns fell to third in its third weekend with $15.8 million compared to my higher $18.7 million prediction. Total tally is $138 million.
Bumblebee was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.2 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $97 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $13.1 million, slinging beyond my $10.9 million forecast. It’s made $133 million thus far.