February 15-18 Box Office Predictions

It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’t It Romantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/06/happy-death-day-2u-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/06/alita-battle-angel-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/07/isnt-it-romantic-box-office-prediction/

Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both Death Day and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first Lego Movie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.

That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with Death Day part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.

That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with What Men Want rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.

1. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Happy Death Day 2U

Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Alita: Battle Angel

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)

4. Isn’t It Romantic

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. What Men Want

Predicted Gross: $13 million

Box Office Results (February 810)

It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.

What Men Want opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.

Same story for Cold Pursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.

On a rare positive note for this weekend, The Upside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.

Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.

Horror flick The Prodigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 8-10 Box Office Predictions

After a sleepy box office weekend that’s normal for when the Super Bowl is played (which was sleepy as well), things pick up considerably in this second frame of February. There’s four newcomers that could populate those top four slots. They are the animated sequel The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, Taraji P. Henson comedic remake What Men Want, Liam Neeson action thriller Cold Pursuit, and horror flick The Prodigy. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/29/the-lego-movie-2-the-second-part-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/what-men-want-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/cold-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/31/the-prodigy-box-office-prediction/

The Lego follow-up should have little trouble topping the charts, but I have it debuting significantly under the $69 million achieved by its predecessor four years ago.

I have What Men Want placing a strong second with Cold Pursuit having a middling start in third. The five-spot could be a battle between The Prodigy and holdover The Upside. The latter should experience a smaller drop than three-week champion Glass, which means it may fall from first to sixth.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. What Men Want

Predicted Gross: $26.4 million

3. Cold Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. The Prodigy

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (February 13)

Super Bowl weekends are never bountiful ones at multiplexes and that held true this year. It was the worst SB frame in 19 years. Glass stayed in 1st with $9.5 million, cutting close to my $9.8 million prediction. Its total is $88 million.

The Upside was close behind in second with $8.6 million (I said $9.1 million) for $75 million overall.

Action flick Miss Bala was the sole newbie and it was third with $6.8 million, ahead of my $5.8 million forecast. That’s nothing special, but not too shabby considering the reported $15 million budget.

Aquaman was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5 million) for $323 million total. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.6 million). The Oscar favorite for Best Animated Feature is up to $175 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 1-3 Box Office Predictions

It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller Miss Bala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/25/miss-bala-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and The Upside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.

The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and The Kid Who Would Be King, but with the possibility that SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for Green Book could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.

With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. Miss Bala

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $5 million

5. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (January 2527)

Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).

The Upside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.

Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.

The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick The Kid Who Would Be King got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.

Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Two new titles attempt to gather eyeballs this weekend with the kiddie rendering of the King Arthur legend The Kid Who Would Be King and Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway thriller Serenity. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/17/serenity-box-office-prediction/

I’ll say the Kid manages to just top double digits and that could give it a second place showing. As for Serenity, my mid single digits forecast of $5.1 million puts it just outside the top five in sixth.

Current champ Glass should have little trouble staying in first place, but I am predicting a sophomore frame drop of over 50% due to middling critical and audience reaction.

Holdovers The Upside, Aquaman, and SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse should round out the top half of the charts. As for Dragon Ball Super: Broly, it debuted with terrific results this past weekend (more on that below). However, I anticipate a front-loaded nature for its earnings and a fall in the mid 50s range. That puts it outside the top 5 in my view.

Here are my projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Kid Who Would Be King

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (January 1821)

The long MLK weekend saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass rule with the third highest opening of this particular holiday at $46.5 million. That is a bit below expectations and under my $58.1 million estimate. However, it nearly doubled its reported $25 million budget in four days.

The Upside went down to second with $18.3 million, ahead of my $15.4 million prediction. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama stands at a strong $46 million after two weeks.

Aquaman was third with $12.7 million (I said $13.8 million) as it crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.

The aforementioned Dragon Ball Super: Broly was fourth with a fantastic $11.9 million over the traditional weekend and $22 million since its Wednesday premiere. I’ll sheepishly admit that the anime feature was not properly on my radar and I didn’t do a projection for it.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse was in the five-spot with $10.1 million compared to my guesstimate of $8.3 million. Overall haul is $161 million.

A Dog’s Way Home was sixth at $9.9 million (I said $9.1 million) for a two-week tally of $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Kid Who Would Be King Box Office Prediction

A juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale hits theaters next weekend with the family fantasy The Kid Who Would Be King. It comes from director Joe Cornish, whose 2011 debut Attack the Block (marking the debut of John Boyega) was a critical favorite. This marks his awaited sophomore effort. The title character is played by newcomer Louis Ashbourne Serkis, son of motion capture king Andy. Costars include Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson, and Patrick Stewart.

Early reviews are encouraging with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%. It could help that the family friendly holiday holdovers have started to wane. That said, the marketing campaign hasn’t been robust and followers of the filmmaker’s first feature belong in a niche market.

I think Kid could manage to hit double digits while teens could be a reach. That might get it to second place next weekend behind the sophomore frame of Glass.

The Kid Who Would Be King opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million

For my Serenity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/17/serenity-box-office-prediction/

January 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/08/glass-box-office-prediction/

While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s American Sniper.

With no new wide releases out, The Upside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, A Dog’s Way Home, and SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse should fill out the rest of the top five.

My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $72.1 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

5. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (January 1113)

As mentioned, The Upside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.

Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.

A Dog’s Way Home had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.

Escape Room was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.

The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.

Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Glass Box Office Prediction

When it debuts over the MLK four-day holiday weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass will easily break into the number one spot. Questions about its potential ceiling are very real. The superhero thriller mixes the casts of two of the filmmaker’s best known works – 2000’s Unbreakable and 2017’s Split. That means James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson, Spencer Treat Clark and Anya-Taylor Joy are along for the ride as well as Sarah Paulson joining this cinematic universe. No other movie opens wide against it.

Just over 18 years ago, Unbreakable was Night’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to his breakthrough smash hit The Sixth Sense. Audiences had a mixed reaction at the time, but it managed a five-day Thanksgiving haul of $46 million before a final domestic gross of $95 million. Its reputation has grown in many circles in time. Two years ago, Split served as a major comeback vehicle for the director with a $40 million start as it legged out to $138 million.

I believe the positive response for Split will earn this impressive results. It only helps that it’s still fresh in the minds of audiences, including the ending that set up this picture. Word-of-mouth will determine the rest.

Glass will not shatter this holiday weekend’s record, which is held by American Sniper at $107 million. Earning the #2 honors over MLK should be a breeze as that’s currently held by Ride Along at $48 million.

Prognostications have this nabbing anywhere between $50-75 million from Friday to Monday. I have a hunch the higher end of that range is the route to go.

*On the eve of its premiere, I’m downgrading from $72.1 million to $58.1 million

Glass opening weekend prediction: $58.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)