Tag: Gavin O’Connor

Oscar Watch: The Way Back

Ben Affleck has certainly had a fascinating history with Oscar voters. He’s a double winner who has never been nominated for the profession he’s known best for. In 1997, Affleck (along with Matt Damon) took home the Best Original Screenplay trophy for Good Will Hunting. Fifteen years later, his directorial effort Argo was named Best Picture and as a producer, he picked up his second Academy Award. However, he’s one of the few filmmakers whose project was victorious in the biggest race while he was snubbed in the directing category.

This Friday, Affleck stars in Gavin O’Connor’s basketball drama The Way Back. Playing a coach battling addiction problems, some early reviews are calling it his finest performance to date. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. O’Connor’s previous sports related picture, 2011’s Warrior, nabbed Nick Nolte a Best Supporting Actor nod.

In addition to being ignored for Director with Argo, Affleck also failed to garner a Best Actor nod. As mentioned, he’s yet to pick up recognition in that space. There was some buzz he could get a nomination alongside his Gone Girl costar Rosamund Pike in 2014, but it never materialized.

Could The Way Back change that? Doubtful. The release date is awfully early and box office prospects don’t look too encouraging. Affleck could get a second bite at the apple in December with Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel. That historical drama features the actor in a supporting role alongside Damon and Adam Driver. Affleck cowrote the screenplay and we could see another example of his writing skills being noticed as opposed to his own performance. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Way Back Box Office Prediction

Director Gavin O’Connor is known for his sports dramas like 2004’s Olympic hockey recounting Miracle with Kurt Russell and the MMA pic Warrior starring Tom Hardy and Nick Nolte. The filmmaker is back in the genre next weekend with The Way Back, which centers on Ben Affleck as a basketball coach struggling with addiction. Costars include Al Madrigal, Michaela Watkins, Janina Gavankar, and Glynn Turman.

O’Connor’s biggest box office opening came outside the genre in 2016 with his thriller The Accountant, which also starred Affleck. That pic surprised prognosticators with a debut of nearly $25 million. Miracle had the Disney marketing machine behind it (and a well-known story about a game that just celebrated its 40th anniversary). It made nearly $20 million. On the other hand, Warrior struggled with just over $5 million.

The Way Back, despite Affleck promoting it all over sports media, is not expected to be a breakout success. Solid reviews (not out yet) could help it achieve more than the expected  range of high single to low double digits. As of now, that general forecast appears likely.

The Way Back opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my Onward prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/02/27/onward-box-office-prediction/

The Accountant Box Office Prediction

It’s been a busy year for Mr. Ben Affleck as he made his debut as the Caped Crusader in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and will unveil his next directorial effort, the Prohibition era crime drama Live by Night, this December. And that’s not all because next weekend comes The Accountant. 

The action thriller stars Batfleck and is directed by Gavin O’Connor, who’s had a mixed filmography with critical and commercial pleasers like Miracle and Warrior. There’s also his previous effort – the Natalie Portman flop of a Western Jane Got a Gun. This will be a true test of Affleck’s star power as he’s really the sole selling point. Costars include Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, Jon Bernthal, Jeffrey Tambor, and John Lithgow.

Two Octobers back, the star had one of his largest career hits with Gone Girl, which debuted to $37 million. The Accountant will try to lure in adult moviegoers who (unlike in the summer) have had plenty of offerings to choose from, including Sully, The Magnificent Seven, Deepwater Horizon, and The Girl on the Train. While this could reach over $20 million, a debut in the high teens seems like the numbers this Accountant will manage.

The Accountant opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

For my Max Steel prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

Jane Got a Gun Box Office Prediction

It boasts an acclaimed director with an Oscar winning actress, but next weekend’s Jane Got a Gun seems poised to misfire upon its debut. Gavin O’Connor, maker of Miracle and Warrior, directs this western headlined by Natalie Portman with Joel Edgerton and Ewan McGregor costarring.

The long delayed pic was originally set to open in the summer of 2014, then delayed to 2015, and is now finally rolling out in the doldrums of January. Marketing for it has been low-key and I feel part of its struggle could be that audiences just aren’t aware of its existence. Added to that, female driven westerns are historically not a commercially viable genre (see Bad Girls, The Quick and the Dead).

Jane Got a Gun, while having a relatively small $25 million budget, could have trouble grossing half that number overall. I don’t even think this reaches $5 million in its opening.

  • bloggers note: upon word this is only opening on 550 screens, I’m downgrading this prediction from $3.4M to $1.7M

Jane Got a Gun opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my The Finest Hours prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/