Tag: Good Will Hunting

Oscar Predictions: The Odyssey

One of the biggest pieces of the Oscar predicting puzzle came into greater focus today with the review embargo having lifted for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The fantasy based on Homer’s ancient epic debuts this weekend with grand box office hopes for Universal. It has long been anticipated to be a major awards player with Matt Damon leading a massive cast that includes (deep breath) Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Samantha Morton, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.

The reported $250 million production is Nolan’s hotly awaited follow-up to 2023’s Oppenheimer. That nearly billion dollar grossing biopic was an Oscar juggernaut with 13 nominations and 7 victories including Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). The Odyssey seeks to become Nolan’s fourth feature in contention for BP joining 2010’s Inception, 2017’s Dunkirk, and the aforementioned Oppenheimer.

Let’s dispense with the drama. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic, The Odyssey‘s journey to a Best Picture nomination looks assured and it is a threat to win. Same goes for Nolan’s direction and a number of other categories including Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That’s 11 noms in the bag already. Makeup and Hairstyling and Original Song (a new tune by Travis Scott and James Blake closes the three-hour experience) are possibilities with the latter perhaps a long shot.

As for the actors, some of my early predictions may have to shift. For weeks, I’ve had Matt Damon on the inside in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth. That forecast seems accurate though I’m leaning toward him making the cut in what should be a crowded field. Obviously that could change as various works from competitors like Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) are screened. It would be Damon’s fourth acting nod behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian if he gets in.

Gunning for her third attempt at gold is Anne Hathaway behind 2008’s Rachel Getting Married and a Supporting Actress victory for 2012’s Les Miserables. The buzz indicates that her supporting work is the most assured of inclusion. I’ve her outside of the top 5 most of the time in the past couple of months. Look for that to change in my next round of predictions this weekend.

As for Supporting Actor, there was some chatter for Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland. If either get in, I’d say Pattinson is more likely than Holland. There’s also lots of love for John Leguizamo, but Universal would need to make a conscientious effort to campaign for him. Same goes for Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress. She’s getting raves. However, her performance is limited to one scene and Hathaway may get the sole push.

In a best case scenario, The Odyssey could surpass Oppenheimer‘s nomination haul and even get in the range of the record-setting 16 that Sinners received last year. I suspect my next projections will give it 13-15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Oscar Predictions: The Instigators

The Instigators is receiving a limited theatrical run this weekend before it comes to Apple TV on August 9th. The caper flick reunites Matt Damon with his The Bourne Identity director Doug Liman with Casey Affleck (who cowrote the screenplay) co-headlining. Hong Chau, Paul Walter Hauser, Michael Stuhlbarg, Ving Rhames, Alfred Molina (pulling double duty this weekend with Harold and the Purple Crayon), Toby Jones, Jack Harlow, and Ron Perlman are included in the supporting cast.

Any hope of a Good Will Hunting like awards run seem to be dashed. A better comp might be the similarly themed The Town from Damon’s Hunting cowriter and Casey’s older bro Ben Affleck. It scored a 92% RT rating and ended up with an Oscar nom for Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Critics are not taken with The Instigators as evidenced by the 45% RT rating. It is safe to say it won’t be stealing any nominations from awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Air Review

The corporate intrigue in the muted boardrooms of Ben Affleck’s Air unfolds in Beaverton, Oregon. That’s the headquarters of Nike as a select few proceeded to break the dam of sports marketing and fit it to what it is today. It happened during the loud (fashion and otherwise) decade of the 1980s as a 3rd pick rookie out of North Carolina sought a shoe deal.

Michael Jordan was that draftee in 1984 and his sneaker endorsement selection is assumed to be Adidas (Converse is the other market leader at the time). Nike, while pacing first in the market for running shoes, is third in hoops apparel. Sonny Vaccaro (Matt Damon) is the marketing exec who sees the future in MJ and shoots for a deal that his colleagues have understandable skepticism about. They include CEO Phil Knight (Affleck), who ironically spends many a conversation sans footwear, VP Rob Strasser (Jason Bateman) and Howard White (Chris Tucker), who’s still with the company today. There’s also the matter of convincing the Jordan family and mom Deloris (Viola Davis) is a fierce yet fair negotiator. Sonny’s deliberations with Jordan’s agent David Falk (Chris Messina) are far more profane and a frequent highlight.

Of course we all know how this turns out whether you’ve laced up Air Jordans or not. Yet the story behind the shoe, complete with frequent needle drops from classic music of the era, is worth putting on. Affleck and screenwriter Alex Convery provide a sturdy structure for this goodwill tale of the hunt for Jordan’s contract signature.

The script’s most surprising decision is to sideline #23 himself. There is no actor cast as Jordan and he is seen only from behind or in archival footage. It turns out to be a wise play. For starters, he may simply be too iconic and someone playing him might’ve been a distraction. Most importantly, Air is about the eventual business of MJ and not the man himself. There’s a ten-part ESPN Films documentary, with its subject seemingly in control of that material, that still does an impressive job covering him. Keeping Jordan at arms length and as an enigma makes sense in the confines of the film’s aims.

The actors provide worthy assists. Standouts including Bateman (he’s got a great scene where he explains why he doesn’t want to lose his job if negotiations go south), Messina, and of course Davis. Close buddies Damon and Affleck, as we witnessed a quarter century ago, continue to have a snappy chemistry.

Air rises above being a trivial pursuit of a corporation fattening its bottom line. Yes, one could argue that’s the eventual outcome, but this deal also gave future athletes more skin in the game. It’s all packaged in a winning formula featuring the aura of the ultimate competitor.

***1/2 (out of four)

Air Box Office Prediction

Amazon Studios hope adults are going for a night on the town when Air debuts on Wednesday, April 5th. The fifth directorial feature from Ben Affleck recounts the risky decision by Nike to develop a shoe based around an NBA rookie named Michael Jordan. SPOILER: It turned out well. Ben’s Good Will Hunting cowriter Matt Damon, as salesman Sonny Vaccaro, joins his pal Affleck (who plays company cofounder Phil Knight). The ensemble cast includes Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Messina, Chris Tucker, Matthew Maher, and real life married couple Viola Davis and Julius Tennon as MJ’s parents.

Solid buzz greeted the project when it debuted at South by Southwest. Air sports a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score and it could even be an awards player several months down the road. Adult dramas have faced a tough road recently though A Man Called Otto was a 2023 bright spot in the genre.

The connection to MJ and the star power could give this a lift over the five-day Easter frame. Amazon chose to go full theatrical and not simultaneously release on their streaming service. That is a vote of confidence and TV ads have played frequently during March Madness (in addition to a Super Bowl slot).

Some parents with 80s nostalgia might be distracted taking their kiddos to The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Yet I’ll say this manages to top $10 million over the traditional three-day with mid to high teens for the extended holiday.

Air opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Super Mario Bros. Movie prediction, click here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Air

Air is the fifth feature directed by Ben Affleck and it closed out the South by Southwest festival this weekend prior to its April 5th theatrical release. The 1984 set sports drama focuses on Nike’s decision to make a shoe deal with an NBA rookie by the name of Michael Jordan. In addition to being behind the camera, Affleck costars as the company’s co-founder Phil Knight. The director’s buddy Matt Damon headlines as marketing exec Sonny Vaccaro with a supporting cast including Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Tucker, Chris Messina, Matthew Maher, and real life married couple Viola Davis and Julius Tennon as MJ’s parents and chief negotiators. #23 himself is not played by an actor and appears only in archival footage.

Early reactions from Austin indicate that Air might be the first legit awards hopeful to be released on the ’23 calendar. Several of the reviews are outright raves with comparisons to Jerry Maguire and Moneyball (both nominated for Best Picture). If this hits with audiences (and indications are it’s a crowdpleaser), that only increases its chances to make the big dance.

Affleck, of course, was famously snubbed by the Academy in 2012 even though his second directorial effort Argo won Best Picture. He’s yet to be nominated for his filmmaking. However, three of his previous four pics (Gone Baby Gone, The Town, Argo) achieved one or more mentions from Oscar voters. The one that didn’t was his last – 2016’s flop Live by Night.

It’s early, but the chances of Air garnering nominations is high. I don’t know if Affleck will get his first directing nod, but this already looks like it’s shooting for one of the ten slots in BP. The original screenplay by Alex Convery, cinematography from three-time winner Robert Richardson, and editing from William Goldenberg are all possibilities.

As for the cast, I’m curious to see category placement. Damon could be put in lead and vie for his fourth overall acting nom behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian. Amazon could also choose to campaign everyone in supporting. The other male performer drawing lots of attention is Chris Messina as MJ’s agent David Falk. Fresh off her EGOT, Viola Davis might have the best chance and it would be her fifth nom after Doubt, The Help, Fences (where she won), and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. It might help that many felt she was just snubbed for The Woman King.

Bottom line: Air is a real contender in the game of Oscar and my prediction posts will continue…

The Last Duel Review

Sword fights abound literally and figuratively in Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, which finds the legendary director covering familiar red stained territory in a unique storytelling format. Based on a true incident that transpired in late 14th century France, Good Will Hunting scribes Matt Damon and Ben Affleck collaborate with Nicole Holofcener for this three tiered tale of a tragic crime mixed with a touch of black comedy. It explores the horrors of machismo at a time when women were seen as property by the standards of thought and law. The most fascinating aspect of the film (and most appalling) is that the three principals may truly believe they’re the victim, including two that should not.

Shot in gray with a focus on grey areas, Duel is fashioned into triangular chapters (from a novel by Eric Jager). Each outlines the plot from these perspectives: Jean de Carrouges (Damon), who fancies himself a brave and noble knight; the philandering squire Jacques Le Gris (Adam Driver) who has the ear of the authoritative and even more philandering Count Pierre d’Alencon (Affleck); and Jean’s educated and strong wife Marguerite (Jodie Comer). Jean and Marguerite’s marriage is one of convenience and real estate opportunities for the former. He also desires a male heir that Marguerite has yet to produce. Jacques, meanwhile, has access to influence that Jean doesn’t possess. When he becomes smitten with his friend’s bride, the power dynamic turns more dangerous.

An accusation of rape is made in an era when most women didn’t dare do so (made clear in a potent monologue by Jean’s emotionally barren mother played by Harriet Walter). 600 plus years ago, that meant Jean and Jacques would participate in the picture’s title if a trial permitted it (and allow for Scott to play in some Gladiator type set pieces). Where the screenplay derives some humor is that the two leading men seem convinced that they are the aggrieved party and are oblivious to the damage inflicted on Marguerite. As nearly every male character is given a chance to bask in his laurels, we detect plenty of side eyes from the women around them. I suspect those sharp edges come courtesy of Holofcener’s script portions.

The Last Duel is fueled by Comer’s central performance as a victim who spoke up centuries before hashtags existed. The struggles to hold her perpetrator responsible are both centuries old and of today. Didn’t she remark that he was attractive? Maybe her no was a yes and she enjoyed it. Damon and especially Driver add sturdy support and Affleck commands the screen in his relatively brief runtime (once you get past the odd looking wigs).

The chaptered structure is occasionally repetitive. However, by the time the literal swordplay commences, the time spent with the trio builds a sense of genuine tension. Marguerite will be punished by a grisly death unless Jacques succeeds. In other words, her words mean little and she must rely on her husband to determine whether her time is up. That’s the wound that cuts the deepest as we await their fates.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: The Tender Bar

George Clooney’s The Tender Bar opens in limited release this December before its premiere on Amazon Prime in early January. The coming-of-age drama set in the 1970s and 80s screened at the London Film Festival over the weekend. Early reviews indicate a warm hearted tale that is unlikely to play in the highest profile races like Picture and Director.

Its famous director wooed Oscar voters 16 years ago with his second effort Good Night, and Good Luck. Scoring six nods (including Picture and Director) and winning none, it’s been slim pickings for Clooney’s behind the camera efforts ever since. 2011’s The Ides of March nabbed a sole Adapted Screenplay mention while last year’s The Midnight Sky made the cut in Visual Effects.

As I see it, The Tender Bar could play in two categories. The first is the screenplay adapted by William Monahan. He’s no stranger to Academy attention as he won in 2006 for his penmanship of Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. Inclusion there is less likely than for one of its performers.

That would be Ben Affleck. Another leading man turned writer/director, Affleck has a deep history with Oscar voters that has nothing to do with his acting. In 1997, his Good Will Hunting script with Matt Damon won. Fifteen years later, he directed and produced (hence a second trophy) Best Picture winner Argo. Surprisingly, he didn’t get a spot for his direction.

With a cast featuring Tye Sheridan, Lily Rabe, and Christopher Lloyd, the initial critical praise is being heaped upon Affleck. That’s in addition to some kudos for his supporting work in The Last Duel (out this weekend). Mr. Affleck has been on the radar screen before for his performances – think Hollywoodland, Argo, and last year’s The Way Back. Yet he’s never made the dance. As of now, the Supporting Actor derby for 2021 looks wide open. I’d go as far to say there’s no guaranteed nominees (though Jamie Dornan in Belfast and Richard Jenkins in The Humans look probable). I’ve had Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) listed at #1 for two months, but we still don’t know if his role is meaty enough to truly contend.

This could all contribute to Affleck finally getting some Academy TLC. That said, he’s been in the mix before and come up shy. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

The Last Duel Box Office Prediction

Had The Last Duel come out, say 15 years ago, it probably would be looking at a debut north of $20 million. That’s when director Ridley Scott was not far removed from his Oscar winning Gladiator and at a time when Matt Damon and Ben Affleck had more drawing power. In 2021, I’m not so sure. The 14th century set historical drama features the two Good Will Hunting stars as well as Jodie Comer and Adam Driver.

Originally slated for Christmas 2020 before its COVID delay, this is now the first of two Ridley Scott efforts hitting multiplexes this fall (the next being November’s House of Gucci). Early reviews indicate this will not be much of an awards player. With a 67% Rotten Tomatoes score, the bulk of the praise has come to Killing Eve actress Comer (who was recently widely seen in Free Guy). She could score a Best Actress nod, but don’t look for Duel to compete anywhere else.

The pic is hoping for an adult audience and many of those titles have struggled during this era. Additionally, competition is steep. Halloween Kills opens on the same day with No Time to Die in its sophomore frame. If it was garnering legit Oscar buzz, I might be more optimistic. However, I suspect Duel might arrive at a standstill next weekend. That could mean a premiere that just gets past double digits.

The Last Duel opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million

For my Halloween Kills prediction, click here:

Halloween Kills Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Stillwater

Matt Damon is a three-time nominee for his acting with leading nods for 1997’s Good Will Hunting and 2015’s The Martian and his supporting turn in 2009’s Invictus. He does have himself a gold statue for his cowriting of Hunting. The Cannes Film Festival has debuted his latest effort Stillwater where the Bourne star plays an Oklahoma dad transported to France when his daughter (Abigail Breslin, a nominee 15 years ago as Little Miss Sunshine) is accused of murder. So for those wondering – no, this is not about the fictional band from Almost Famous.

This marks the latest directorial effort from Tom McCarthy, whose 2015 journalistic expose Spotlight won Best Picture. Fun fact: McCarthy has to have one of the most unexpected follow-ups to a Best Pic recipient with the Disney Plus kiddie comedy Timmy Failure: Mistakes Were Made. 

Stillwater looks like more of an awards contender. However, Failure‘s 84% Rotten Tomatoes score currently outshines the 80% held by Damon’s French excursion. That said, early critical reaction is calling this one of the actor’s best performances.

Will that be enough to get Damon to the final five? I’m skeptical. Competition will likely be steep. This reminds me a bit of The Way Back from a year ago. It gave his Hunting writing partner Ben Affleck some of the strongest notices of his filmography and garnered him some buzz. Yet he ended up not making the cut.

Bottom line: Stillwater‘s only chance at Academy recognition seems to be with Damon, but he could face an uphill climb. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…