Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: January 27-29

Three new titles debut this weekend, but none in the trio may dislodge Split from a second weekend atop the charts. The newbies are: sixth and presumably last franchise pic Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, family friendly pet tale A Dog’s Purpose, and Matthew McConaughey vehicle Gold. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Purpose Box Office Prediction

Gold Box Office Prediction

We’ll begin with Resident Evil. While all other entries in the series have managed over $20 million (except for the first in 2002), the near five-year gap between sequels should hurt this, similar to how it just hurt Underworld: Blood Wars. Still, a second place showing looks probable.

That brings us to A Dog’s Purpose. Based on a hugely successful bestseller, I had this pegged at nearly $18 million until last week when a TMZ story alleged very questionable animal handling practices on set. My feeling is that the story has gotten big enough to hurt this significantly and I now have it barely topping double digits.

As for Gold, middling reviews could hinder this one and I’ve got it outside the top five with mid single digits.

Returning champ Split had a much larger than expected debut (more on that below). Even if it dips more than 50% (typical for horror titles), I still see it remaining #1.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage had an unimpressive opening and I expect it to fall from #2 to #6. That’s because both Hidden Figures and La La Land should reap the benefits of Oscar nominations. La La, in particular, looks poised to receive the most Academy nods of any picture in history tomorrow morning and that could contribute to a bump.

And with that, my top 8 predictions for this weekend:

1. Split 

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 53%)

2. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. A Dog’s Purpose

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 18&)

6. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)

7. Sing

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

8. Gold

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (January 20-22)

On the weekend that we just had, maybe it’s somewhat appropriate and ironic that the #1 movie in America is titled Split. And the M. Night Shymalan pic rocketed out of the gate with a fantastic and unforeseen $40.1 million, more than doubling my teeny $19.6M estimate. This is the director’s fourth highest domestic debut, trailing Signs, The Village, and The Last Airbender. It puts the director, who’d been on a downturn until 2015’s low-budget The Visit performed well, on even more of an upswing.

xXx: Return of Xander Cage managed a middling $20.1 million in second, under my $25.4M prediction. The Diesel power is clearly stronger with his Fast and Furious franchise.

Two-week champ Hidden Figures was third with $15.7 million (a bit above my $13.7M forecast) for $83M thus far.

Sing was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.4M) to bring its tally to $249M.

Fifth place belonged to La La Land with $8.4 million (not matching my $11.4M estimate) for an $89M total. Still, as mentioned, its Oscar bump could be forthcoming.

Rogue One was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $7.8M) for a $512M haul.

#7 – Monster Trucks in weekend #2 with $7 million (I said $6.2M). Total gross: $22M.

#8 – Patriots Day, also in weekend #2 of wide release with $5.7 million (I said $7.2M). Total gross: $23M.

#9 – Sleepless in its sophomore frame with $3.4M and #10 was The Bye Bye Man, also with $3.4M in weekend 2. My respective guesstimates were $4.3M and $5.9M.

The Founder with Michael Keaton opened to stale results with $3.4 million in 11th, a bit shy of my $4.1M estimate.

Finally, two other newcomers posted low numbers as 20th Century Women expanded wide and made $1.4 million (I was higher with $2.8M) and faith-based dramedy The Resurrection of Gavin Stone earned $1.3 million (I said $1.6M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 20-22

As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/split-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/the-resurrection-of-gavin-stone-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land. 

As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.

And here is that top 10 from where I see it:

1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Split

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)

5. Sing

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

10. Sleepless 

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 13-16)

Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.

The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.

La La Land sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.

The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic The Bye Bye Man. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.

Kiddie flick Monster Trucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.

Patriots Day with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.

The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.

Underworld: Blood Wars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.

Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.

Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s Live by Night. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.

Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.

That does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 13-16

Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.

Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.

My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.

Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:

1. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)

2. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. Sing

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)

6. Live by Night

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

7. Sleepless

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

10. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.

Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.

Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.

Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.

The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:

6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million

7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million

8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.

9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.

10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.

Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: January 6-8

The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful Hidden Figures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: Blood Wars, and sci-fi drama A Monster Calls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/a-monster-calls-box-office-prediction/

Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of Rogue One and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.

As for Blood Wars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.

La La Land is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likely outside of the top ten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

4. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

6. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $9 million

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

8. Moana

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

9. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $6 million

10. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)

The four-day New Years weekend gave Rogue One its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.

Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.

Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.

Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.

Rounding out the top five was Why Him? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.

In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.

Oscar favorite La La Land expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.

Eighth place: Assassin’s Creed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.

The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and Manchester by the Sea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).

Collateral Beauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. Office Christmas Party was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 30-January 2

Well, it’s both the final box office weekend of 2016 and first one of 2017 and that means four-day holiday estimates once again. There are no new titles premiering over the New Years frame as Christmas holdovers look to dominate the charts.

During the last two years where we saw New Years Day fall on a Sunday (2005, 2011), returning films routinely saw increases compared to the three-day portion of the Christmas weekend. While many may not match the four-day takes of the previous weekend, I wouldn’t look for any precipitous drops for anything.

Bottom line – this weekend should look a whole lot like the one that just concluded with Rogue One and Sing easily in the one and two spots, some Oscar hopefuls continuing their stellar runs, and some Christmas disappointments (more on that below) hoping for a soft cushion in their sophomore frames.

With that, we’ll do a top 10 Estimates for the Friday to Monday weekend ahead:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $79.9 million

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $56.6 million

3. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

4. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

5. Moana

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

6. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

7. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $10 million

8. Fences

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

9. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

10. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 23–26)

As expected, Rogue One ruled the holiday box office, bringing in $96.1 million over the Friday to Monday Christmas weekend. This is just over my $92.8M prediction to bring its total to a merry $318 million.

Illumination Entertainment’s animated Sing posted a strong second place debut to the tune of $55.8 million from Friday to Monday and $75.5 million since its Wednesday opening (in line with my respective estimates of $55.3M and $74.1M).

The news was not quite as jolly for the Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci-fi thriller Passengers. Met with generally mediocre reviews, the pic made $30 million since its Wednesday premiere and $22.6 million over the weekend. My prognoses were higher at $42M and $31.4M.

James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him? had a decent opening with $15.5 million, a bit above my $13.2M prediction. It could enjoy a nice hold this weekend.

Video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed posted unimpressive results with $14.8 million from Friday to Monday and $22.2 million since Wednesday, not reaching my predictions of $19.8M and $28.1M.

Disney’s Moana earned $12.5 million (compared to my $10.1M forecast) for a $185 million haul.

Denzel Washington’s Fences took in a healthy $11.6 million (I was lower at $8.6M) in just two days as it opened on Christmas.

Another strong Oscar hopeful, La La Land, also expanded on the holiday and brought in $9.2 million. I was lower again with a $7.5M estimate.

Office Christmas Party made $7 million (I said $6.2M) to bring its gross to $44M.

Finally, Will Smith flop Collateral Beauty rounded out the top ten with $6.3 million (I said $5.3M) for an underwhelming tally of $17M.

**On a personal note and as a movie lover, I do want to mention the sad news of the day and simply say Rest In Peace to the great and iconic Carrie Fisher.

That does it for now. Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 23-26

Ho Ho Ho!!!

It’s Christmas weekend at the box office and it’s expected to be a bustling one as five new pictures open in wide release, an Oscar front runner continues to expand, and the second weekend of Rogue One is upon us.

The five newbies are: animated musical Sing, Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci fi romantic thriller Passengers, video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed with Michael Fassbender, James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him?, and Denzel Washington family drama Fences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/sing-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/passengers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/assassins-creed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/why-him-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/fences-box-office-prediction/

When it comes to crunching the numbers for the fresh product, one must consider the release dates of each. Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s Creed all debut this Wednesday. Why Him? will be out Friday. Fences won’t be out until Christmas Day on Sunday, so it’s only two days of grosses to factor in for it.

As I see it, Sing should rather easily be tops among the newbies with Passengers in third. I do wonder if the mostly negative reviews for the J. Law title could hinder it, but I’m still going with a low 40s four-day. I have Creed and Why Him? rounding out the top five with Fences managing a seventh place showing for its 48 hour haul.

As for the second weekend of Rogue One, a 40% dip would put it in the low  90s and that would be good for the 4th largest second weekend of all time. Last year’s record setter The Force Awakens fell just 39% in its sophomore frame (and that was just 3 day gross) for a $149M gross.

As for other holdovers, the holiday weekend typically sees either small drops (and sometimes slight increases) and that’s reflected in my estimates. Additionally, La La Land (currently on 200 screens) is expected to triple its theater count and it should experience a more significant bump.

And with that- I’m doing a top ten predictions for this crazy four-day weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $92.8 million (representing a 40% drop)

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)

4. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (Friday to Monday), $28.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

6. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 21%)

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)

8. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

9. Office Christmas Party 

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

 

10. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (December 16-18)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story blasted off with an impressive $155 million, good for the 12th largest domestic debut of all time. While it didn’t match my generous $168.3M projection, this is still a fine start for the first spin-off in the heralded franchise and its A Cinemascore grade bodes well for its second weekend and beyond.

Another Disney title – their animated hit Moana – was second with $12.7 million (above my $9M estimate) for a $162M total.

Office Christmas Party was third in its second weekend with $8.5 million, ahead of my $7.1M forecast for a tally of $31M.

The news was not so festive for Will Smith as his critically drubbed Collateral Beauty gave the star his worst wide opening of his career. It made just $7.1 million, well under my $11.4M prediction. I’ve got it experiencing a meager decline over Christmas weekend, but any way you look at it, this is a huge disappointment.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was fourth with $5 million (in line with my $4.8M take) for a $207M haul.

Two Oscar contenders held the six and seven spots. Manchester by the Sea earned $4.2 million in its expansion (I was close with $4.4M) for a total of just over $14M. The aforementioned La La Land continued its sizzling per screen averages with $4.1 million (I said $4.2M) to put its take at just over $5M. As mentioned, it should continue to impress over the holidays and awards season.

And that does it for now, folks! Wishing you a Merry Christmas this weekend and and hopefully a joyous time at the movies…

Box Office Predictions: December 9-11

In the weekend before Rogue One and then a slew of Christmas releases populate the multiplexes, we have two pics opening in wide release: holiday comedy Office Christmas Party and Jessica Chastain political drama Miss Sloane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/30/office-christmas-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/02/miss-sloane-box-office-prediction/

Actually, there’s a third film scheduled to come out in wide (or semi-wide) release and that’s Tom Ford’s thriller Nocturnal Animals with Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal. The problem is that I don’t have a screen count on it at press time, so predicting its number is a bit of guesswork. I’ll say it manages $2.3M. However, when its count is released, I reserve to right to change that estimate.

Back to the newbies with theater counts. Office Christmas Party may benefit from being the only comedy out there (Bad Santa 2 has come and gone) and with its recognizable cast, I’ve got it pegged to manage a #2 opening, just behind Moana‘s third weekend.

Fantastic Beasts should slip to third with holdovers Arrival and Allied filling out the top five, with Sloane very close behind.

Here’s how I have the top 6 projected for this weekend:

 

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Miss Sloane

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend is typically a pretty sleepy one at the box office and 2016 was no different.

Disney’s Moana easily held the top spot for the second weekend in a row grossing $28.2 million (on pace with my $28.8M projection). The animated hit has amassed $119M thus far.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held the #2 position with $18.1 million, a bit under my $20.9M prediction for an overall gross of $183M.

Other holdovers held up quite well over the weekend. Arrival was third with $7.2 million (above my $5.9M estimate) for a $73M total. Allied was fourth with $7 million (I said $5.9M for it as well). It’s grossed $28M. Doctor Strange was fifth with $6.6 million (I said $6.1M). The Marvel property stands at $215M.

Last and least, horror pic Incarnate landed in ninth with a blah $2.5 million, though it did manage to just outpace my $1.7M forecast.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Check out the blog tomorrow when my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story box office prediction is posted. Until then…

Box Office Predictions: December 2-4

The first weekend of December will be filled by Thanksgiving leftovers as only one newbie debuts this weekend: supernatural horror pic Incarnate starring Aaron Eckhart. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/24/incarnate-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m expecting Incarnate to bomb with just a $1.7 million opening, meaning it shouldn’t come close to the top 5.

When it comes to holdovers, Disney’s Moana should easily top the charts in its second weekend. I’m estimating it will lose close to half its opening frame audience. Fantastic Beasts should hold the runner-up spot.

The real drama could be for #3 as I expect Doctor Strange, Allied, and Arrival to each make about the same amount. The post Thanksgiving weekend usually sees pretty large declines for returning product and I expect this year to be no different.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Allied

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (November 25-27)

As anticipated, Disney ruled the Turkey Day holiday frame as their acclaimed animated title Moana was #1. It grossed $56.6 million over Friday to Sunday (right on target with my $56.4M estimate) and $82 million since its Wednesday roll-out (topping my $77.2M projection). Look for the ‘toon to play well over the next month.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them displayed a far better hold than I gave it credit for at second with $45 million as opposed to my $34.9M prediction. The J.K. Rowling would-be franchise has taken in $156M thus far.

Marvel’s Doctor Strange was third with $13.7 million, in line with my $14M prediction to bring its haul to $205M.

The Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard World War II romantic thriller Allied suffered a ho-hum 4th place showing. It made $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $17.7 million since its Wednesday bow, coming in under my respective forecasts of $14.2M and $21.1M.

Arrival displayed a strong hold in its third frame at #5 with $11.4 million (above my $8.6M prediction) for a $62M total.

Trolls came in sixth with $10.6 million (I went a little higher at $12.7M) for $135M overall.

Audiences greeted Bad Santa 2 with little enthusiasm as it debuted in seventh place to just $6.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $9.1 million since Wednesday, a bit below my guesstimates of $8.1M and $10.8M.

Almost Christmas was eighth with $5.6 million (I said $4.7M) for a $34M haul.

Mel Gibson’s directorial comeback Hacksaw Ridge was ninth with $5.5 million (I said $5.1M) to bring its pleasing earnings to $52M.

I incorrectly had The Edge of Seventeen outside of the top ten in its second weekend. It earned $2.9 million to bring its small gross just over $10M.

That’s because I gave too much credit to Warren Beatty’s return to the big screen in Rules Don’t Apply. The pic debuted with an extremely disappointing $1.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday. That’s good for just 12th place and well shy of my $4.8M and $6.3M prognoses.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: November 25-27

It’s Turkey Day weekend at the 2016 box office and there’s four new titles debuting in wide release: Disney’s latest animated creation Moana, Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied, raunchy sequel Bad Santa 2, and Warren Beatty’s long in the making Rules Don’t Apply. You can stuff yourself on my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/moana-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/allied-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/bad-santa-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/16/rules-dont-apply-box-office-prediction/

All 4 releases debut Wednesday to capitalize on the holiday weekend, so my estimates reflect both a three-day and five-day forecast on them.

Moana should rather easily debut on top, especially with the less than expected returns of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over this past weekend (more on that below).

I’m slating Allied for a third place showing, but if it comes in with less than my estimate, it could battle both Doctor Strange and Trolls for the 3-5 spots. It’s worth noting that holdovers on Thanksgiving weekend typically experience smaller than usual declines. While I’ve got Beasts losing over half its audience in its sophomore frame, I have Strange, Trolls, and Arrival losing crowd shares in the low-high 20s percentile range.

That means I’ve got Bad Santa 2 premiering at #7 with Rules Don’t Apply in ninth place between Hacksaw Ridge and Almost Christmas. 

Here’s how the blog readers view my predictions on the newbies:

Moana – 55% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 7% Too High

Allied – 52% Just About Right, 30% Too Low, 18% Too High

Bad Santa 2 – 58% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 11% Too High

Rules Don’t Apply – 64% Just About Right, 18% Too High, 18% Too Low

Any way you look at it… this will be one fascinating weekend to watch and here’s how my top ten looks:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $34.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. Allied

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 21%)

5. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 27%)

6. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 29%)

7. Bad Santa 2

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 23%)

9. Rules Don’t Apply

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

It was a weekend where all four new releases came in below expectations… some far more drastically than others.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned $74.4 million to begin a planned five film franchise. This number is on the lower end of expectations and under my $83.1M projection. This is certainly no disaster for Warner Bros, but a gross closer to $90M was probably their hope. That said, expect the J.K. Rowling series to keep rolling.

Doctor Strange fell to second with $17.7 million (below my $21.5M estimate) for a three-week tally of $181M.

Trolls was third with $17.4 million (I was a bit higher with $19.7M) for a gross of $116M thus far.

In its second weekend, Arrival was fourth with $12.1 million, a bit under my $13.6M estimate for a $43M total.

I incorrectly had Almost Christmas outside the top five, but it was fifth with $7.2 million for a $25M overall gross.

And… then there’s the other fresh product that came over the weekend. Audiences weren’t interested. Despite critical acclaim, the coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen sputtered with $4.7 million in seventh place, less than half of my $10.9M prediction.

The news was worse for boxing drama Bleed for This, KO’d in 8th place with just $2.3 million (less than half my $5.8M prognosis).

Which brings us to Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Ugh. I somehow estimated it would make $9.2 million. Yet its lukewarm critical reaction and tampered down buzz (it was once thought of to be a potential awards factor) absolutely destroyed it. Walk was DOA in 14th place with an atrocious $901,000. So… oops!

And there you have it, my friends! Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: November 18-20

It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).

Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).

As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:

Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High

The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High

Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low

Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $83.1 million

2. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Edge of Seventeen

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (November 11-13)

In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).

Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.

The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.

Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.

Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).

Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.

The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…