Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: July 21-23

Blogger’s Note (07/19/17): I’ve revised my Girls Trip number to $27.3 million, up from $20.3 million in original post below.

A trio of newcomers hit multiplexes this weekend: Christopher Nolan’s WWII action drama Dunkirk, Luc Besson’s sci-fi spectacle Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and raunchy and critically lauded comedy Girls Trip with Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/dunkirk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/valerian-and-the-city-of-a-thousand-planets-box-office-predictions/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/girls-trip-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Dunkirk should appeal to adult moviegoers ready for something other than sequels and reboots. I have it slated to debut at #1 with a mid 40s haul and it will likely play well in subsequent weekends through the month of August.

War for the Planet of the Apes should lose over half its audience and drop to second. More on its opening below.

The real battle could be for the three-five spots. Spider-Man: Homecoming may lose a bit over 50% in weekend #3 after a larger than expected dip in its sophomore frame. I believe Girls Trip has breakout success potential. While it’s been a weak summer for comedies, Girls is garnering solid reviews and I think it opens to just over $20 million.

In my estimation, that puts the massively budgeted Valerian in fifth. It could certainly top $20 million, but my gut has it under that figure. The pic should perform better overseas.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $44.7 million

2. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

Box Office Results (July 14-16)

Critically heralded three-quel War for the Planet of the Apes dethroned Spider-Man for the top spot, earning $56.2 million. This falls under my $63.4M prediction. War played less like its predecessor Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which made $72 million for its start and more like 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which debuted with $54 million. While a decent showing, this is on the lower end of expectations for what War would accomplish.

Spider-Man: Homecoming fell a steep 61% for second with $44.2 million (I was higher at $55.2M). Spidey’s full inclusion into the MCU has amassed $207 million in its first ten days.

Despicable Me 3 held up a bit better than my projection in third with $19.3 million (I said $17M). The Dreamworks animated three-quel stands at $188 million in three weeks.

Baby Driver was fourth with $8.7 million (I said $7.8M) and its total is at $73 million. Surpassing the century mark looks within its grasp.

Kumail Nanjiani’s well reviewed romantic comedy The Big Sick expanded nationwide for a fifth place showing of $7.5 million. My prediction? $7.5 million! I would expect solid word-of-mouth will have this experiencing fairly small drops in upcoming weekends.

Wonder Woman was sixth with $6.8 million (I went with $6.1M) to bring its startling gross to $380 million. Barring some sort of totally unforeseen late summer surprise, it now appears as if Gal Gadot’s spin-off pic will be this season’s highest earner (something that was practically unthinkable just a couple of months ago).

Debuting in seventh was horror entry Wish Upon, which failed to scare up much business with just $5.4 million (I said $5.9M).

And that will do it for now folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 14-16

War for the Planet of the Apes attempts to knock Spider-Man off his perch from the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as the horror pic Wish Upon also debuts. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/05/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/06/wish-upon-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spider-Man: Homecoming (coming off a fine debut and more on that below) should lose a bit over 50% of its opening crowd. That means my mid 60s forecast for Planet should put it fairly comfortably at #1.

Despicable Me 3 should drop to third. The wild card this weekend could be critically acclaimed rom com The Big Sick, which has been performing extremely well in limited release. It’s set to expand nationwide on Friday and could easily contend with Baby Driver for the four spot. I’ll put it just below Baby for now, but could revise my estimate depending on the official theater count arriving later this week.

As far as Wish Upon, horror flicks are always capable of over performing, yet I’m not expecting much for it. It could find itself in a battle for sixth with Wonder Woman. 

And with that, I’ll do a top 7 projections for this particular weekend:

1. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $17 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Big Sick

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

6. Wonder Woman 

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. Wish Upon

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

Marvel and Sony had much to celebrate this weekend as Spider-Man: Homecoming swung into theaters with a solid $117 million, right on pace with my $117.8M projection. Stellar reviews and Spidey’s entrance into the Marvel Cinematic Universe certainly helped.

Despicable Me 3 dropped to second in its sophomore frame to $33.5 million, a bit shy of my $36.3M estimate for a ten-day total of $148M.

At third, Baby Driver help up well in weekend #2 with $13 million, in line with my $13.6M estimate. It’s made $57M thus far.

Wonder Woman was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $9.9M) for a haul of $368M.

Transformers: The Last Knight rounded out the top five at $6.3 million (I said $7M) for a $118M total. It will easily stand as the lowest domestic earner of the franchise, which currently belongs to predecessor Age of Extinction at $245M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 7-9

There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/27/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-prediction/

Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.

As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.

Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $117.8 million

2. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.

Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.

Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.

Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.

Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.

The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).

Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 30-July 2

It’s a busy weekend ahead as Despicable Me 3 looks to dominate the box office as the Will Ferrell comedy The House and critically acclaimed musical comedy crime thriller Baby Driver are out as well. There’s also a significant theater expansion for Sofia Coppola’s Civil War dramatic thriller The Beguiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all four here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/despicable-me-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/the-house-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/baby-driver-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/26/the-beguiled-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable threequel will not reach the heights of its spin-off predecessor Minions, which opened to $115M two summers ago. I’m looking at a return in the high 80s.

The House appears primed for a second place debut (barely) now that Transformers: The Last Knight didn’t fare so well (more on that below). I have a strange suspicion that it could under perform, but it’s got Will Ferrell and is the only real straight up comedy out there so I’m going late teens.

Baby Driver (which rolls out early on Wednesday) could absolutely be a wild card with some breakout potential. It’s got great buzz among the cinephile community, but I’m not sure how much that will translate to robust earnings out of the gate. I have it slated for sixth.

The Beguiled had a terrific limited debut this past weekend and its 550 screen count has me estimating a $3.8M gross.

Holdover action should see a precipitous drop for Transformers with Wonder Woman likely having a smaller decline than Cars 3 considering the animated competition. The Last Knight could even be in danger of slipping to fourth or fifth if holds for the other two aren’t quite as pronounced as my prognoses.

And with that, let’s do a top 6 estimates:

1. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The House

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Cars 3 

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Friday to Sunday estimate), $15.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth in the decade long franchise, posted the worst stateside numbers for the series thus far. The critically panned pic earned $44.6 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and $68.4 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s well below my respective estimates of $57.8M and $81.5M. The previous Transformers low belonged to the 2007 original, which made $70 million for its start. Lucky for Paramount, these flicks still are doing solid business overseas.

There was a photo finish for second place as Wonder Woman made $24.9 million for the runner-up spot. That’s a bit below my $27.6M projection and the DC title has banked $318 million. Cars 3 went from first to third at $24 million and I forecasted more with $30M. The Pixar sequel stands at $98 million.

Shark tale 47 Meters Down held up stronger in its sophomore weekend than I figured. Its $7 million was good for fourth place and I incorrectly had it outside my projected top 5.

The Mummy was fifth with $6 million, under my $7.4M estimate for a $68 million so far. At this point, it looks assured the Tom Cruise pic will not reach $100M domestically and probably earn around $80M.

Finally, Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me had a massive drop in weekend #2, falling to sixth with $5.8 million (I was higher with $8.4M). That’s a 78% plummet and it’s earned $38 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back with next week’s predictions when Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into multiplexes.

Box Office Predictions: June 23-25

There’s only one new wide release offering this week and that would be Transformers: The Last Knight, which is easily primed to debut at #1. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/14/transformers-the-last-knight-box-office-prediction/

My prediction for it gives it the lowest traditional Friday to Sunday opening for the franchise yet. One reason is simple: Knight is out Wednesday so its extra two days will eat into the traditional weekend frame. The second reason is that I suspect this could be a series that’s losing steam. Still – the franchise is likely to impress overseas.

As for holdovers, Cars 3 looks to drop in the mid 40s in its sophomore weekend while Wonder Woman should continue its impressive holds in third place. The Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me is highly likely to experience a severe drop in its second weekend as even its first weekend gross was front loaded. The Mummy should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $57.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $81.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Cars 3 

Predicted Gross: $30 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. All Eyez on Me

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 68%)

5. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (June 16-18) 

As expected, Pixar continued its streak of #1 hits with Cars 3 opening to $53.6 million, a bit under my $57.8M prediction. While this is a decent showing, it is the lowest of the franchise and the smallest summertime opening for the studio since 2007’s Ratatouille. With stronger reviews than its predecessor, it looks to have a rather solid hold next weekend before Despicable Me 3 hits screens the following weekend.

Wonder Woman continues to astound as it dipped just 29% in its third weekend to $41.2 million for second, outshining my $32.6M estimate. The DC juggernaut has taken in $275 million.

The Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me proved critic proof as audiences flocked to it. It made $26.4 million for third (topping my $22.4M prediction). As mentioned, it will probably suffer a precipitous fall in its second weekend.

The Mummy fell to fourth place with $14.5 million (a bit ahead of my $13.2M forecast) for a weak total of $57 million.

Shark thriller 47 Meters Down performed at the higher end of expectations with a $11.2 million debut, easily topping my $6.1M projection. Considering it was originally slated for just a VOD premiere last summer, this is a pleasing opening for Entertainment Studios.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was sixth and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The fifth entry in the Disney series made $8.9 million to bring its tally to $150 million.

The disappointment of the weekend was unquestionably Rough Night, the Scarlett Johansson comedy that couldn’t overcome middling reviews and non-existent buzz. It generated just $8 million (well below my $15.1M estimate) for seventh place. This marks the star’s second under performer this year after March’s Ghost in the Shell. 

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 16-18

This should be one interesting weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debut: Pixar sequel Cars 3, Scarlett Johansson bachelorette comedy Rough Night, Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me, and shark attack thriller 47 Meters Down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Cars 3 should easily take its place atop the charts (as pretty much all Pixar features do). However, my estimate for it puts it below both of its predecessors.

Wonder Woman displayed a remarkable hold in its sophomore frame (more on that below) and should hold the #2 spot over the influx of newbies.

If there’s one picture with breakout potential, it’s All Eyez on Me. Just two summers ago, we saw Straight Outta Compton greatly exceed all expectations when it grossed over $60 million out of the gate. Eyez doesn’t seem to have that kind of buzz going for it, but I’m predicting a sturdy third place showing.

That puts Rough Night in fourth with a rather ho-hum debut. It seems to be sliding down considerably from its original $25 million projections.

The Mummy stumbled in its premiere (more on that below as well) and I foresee a hefty dip in weekend #2 for fifth place.

Maybe it’s not wise to bet against audience love for sharks (The Shallows proved that last summer), but I’ve got 47 Meters Down earning the least among the fresh quartet for a sixth place showing.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the bustling weekend ahead:

1. Cars 3

Predicted Gross: $57.8 million

2. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $32.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. All Eyez on Me

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

4. Rough Night

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million

5. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 58%)

6. 47 Meters Down

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

As mentioned, Wonder Woman continued its terrific run by dropping only 43% (a noteworthy hold for its genre) to $58.5 million. This topped my $49.5M projection and brought its ten-day total to $206 million. The superhero flick stands a decent shot at overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as the season’s hottest ticket.

Tom Cruise’s The Mummy was hindered by poor reviews and word of mouth with a second place opening at $31.6 million (a bit under my $34.7M forecast). While it’s doing better overseas, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment stateside.

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12.1 million, under my $14.1M projection for a so-so overall gross of $44M.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $10.2M) to bring its tally to $135M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $6.3 million and has earned $366M total.

That’s because critically acclaimed horror pic It Comes at Night had a soft showing with just $5.9 million in sixth (I said $9.5M). While reviews were strong, audience reaction has been negative and look for this to fade very quickly.

Finally, the combo of military themes and dogs gave Megan Leavey an 8th place debut with $3.7 million (I said $3.3M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 9-11

Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is Wonder Woman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic The Mummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick It Comes at Night and military themed biopic Megan Leavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/01/the-mummy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/02/it-comes-at-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/05/megan-leavey-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee Wonder Woman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.

Captain Underpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between Pirates of the Caribbean in its third frame and It Comes at Night. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.

As for Megan Leavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. It Comes at Night

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

Box Office Results (June 2–4)

DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as Wonder Woman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.

Captain Underpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 this month.

Pirates of the Caribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.

Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 2-4

After a rather disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office (more on that below), June rolls in with two major releases: Wonder Woman, the latest in the DC Cinematic Universe and Dreamworks animated feature Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/captain-underpants-the-first-epic-movie-box-office-prediction/

There’s little question that Wonder Woman will open at #1, but there’s wide variations on how much it will gross out of the gate. The pic has been garnering glowing reviews and that should help (its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96%). I currently have it in the low to mid 90s with the thought that the number could be trending up.

A potential battle may emerge for the runner-up position between Underpants and the second weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. However, my estimate puts the non-Sparrow Captain just ahead at #2, as I believe Pirates will suffer a hefty decline.

Holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Baywatch (which should tumble pretty far after a bad debut) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $98.3 million

2. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales easily topped the four-day holiday weekend. However, it did so with the lowest debut of any of the five films since the original in 2003. The Johnny Depp pic grossed $78.4 million over the long frame, right in line with my $78.6M estimate. It is highly likely this will turn out to be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was second with $27.1 million (I was a touch lower at $25.3M) to bring its total to $340M.

Baywatch, with wretched reviews and so-so word of mouth, performed a box office belly flop with $27.7 million from its Thursday to Monday roll out, under my projection of $39.4M. That put in in third for Friday to Monday portion of the weekend.

News was bad for Alien: Covenant as well. In its sophomore frame, it tumbled to $13.3 million for fourth (well under my $19.9M forecast).

Everything, Everything rounded out the top five with $7.6 million (I said $6.8M) for a two week tally of $23M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 26-29

Memorial Day Weekend is upon us and there’s two potential heavy hitters making their way to the multiplex: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, the fifth entry in the Disney franchise and Baywatch, the action comedy reboot of the 90s syndicated TV show. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/pirates-of-the-caribbean-dead-men-tell-no-tales-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/baywatch-box-office-prediction/

Pirates should easily place first, though my prediction puts it under the debuts of the three previous series entries. Baywatch should place second barring a majorly disappointing opening.

I’m estimating that current #1 Alien: Covenant will slip to fourth with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 displaying a better hold in third. YA romance Everything, Everything should round out the top five.

And with that, here’s my holiday weekend Friday to Monday projections!

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $78.6 million

2. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million ($39.4 million projected Thursday to Monday debut)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 24%)

4. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (May 19-21) 

In a tight battle for #1, Alien: Covenant just managed to eek out a victory with $36.1 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the sixth feature in the nearly 40 year-old franchise came in a bit on the lower end of expectations and under my $44.6M prediction.

Following close behind was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in its third frame. The Marvel hit dropped to second with $34.6 million (a tad above my $32.2M projection) for a grand total of $301 million.

Everything, Everything posted a decent third place showing with $11.7 million, right in line with my $12.3M estimate.

Snatched was fourth in its ho-hum run with $7.8 million (I said $9M) for a tally of just $33 million.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword is still a bomb, but it was in the top 5 in its sophomore weekend and I didn’t predict it would be there. It grossed $7.1 million to bring its meager gross to $27 million.

I had Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul debuting in the five spot, but it was sixth with $7.1 million (just below my $8.1M estimate). This is a franchise worst debut for the series.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 19-21

Summer 2017 keeps rolling along as three new titles populate the marketplace this weekend. They are Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant (the sixth film in the nearly 40 year-old franchise), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (the fourth film in the seven year-old franchise), and YA romance Everything, Everything. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Covenant should manage a mid 40s debut. That’s under what its direct predecessor Prometheus accomplished five years ago, but it should be good enough to nab the #1 spot from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The Marvel hit should end its two-week reign atop the charts.

I’m predicting a third place showing for Everything, Everything with Snatched nabbing fourth in its sophomore frame and Wimpy Kid rounding out the top five. As for King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, it should plummet out of the top five in its second weekend after a terrible debut (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snatched 

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (May 12-14) 

As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 easily dominated the box office in weekend #2 with $65.2 million, right in line with my $64.3M projection. The sequel has grossed $248 million thus far.

The Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy did just OK in second place with $19.5 million, a bit shy of my $21.1M estimate. Not a bad opening for a $42 million budget, but this is well below the $30M achieved by Schumer’s Trainwreck two summers ago.

It took until the second weekend of summer to have a flop of epic proportions and that honor belongs to King Arthur: Legend of the Sword. The Guy Ritchie pic took in an embarrassing $15.3 million, well under my $24.4M prediction. Considering its reported $175 million budget, Warner Bros looks to lose a lot of cash on this ill-advised investment.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6. The Fate of the Furious was fourth with $5.4 million (I said $5.7M) for a $215M total. I incorrectly had The Boss Baby in fifth, but it was sixth with $4.4 million (I said $4.9M) for an overall tally of $162M. Instead, Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $4.8 million to bring its massive cume to $494M. It is currently the 8th highest domestic earner of all time.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…