Oscar Predictions – Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Spider-Man: Brand New Day appears poised to swing the best opening of 2026 when it debuts this weekend. Marking the 38th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth stand-alone Spidey entry starring Tom Holland, Destin Daniel Cretton takes over directorial duties from Jon Watts. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles with MCU regulars Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as The Punisher appearing. Other costars include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.

Going back to 2002 when Sam Raimi’s Spidey flick with Tobey Maguire set box office records, the 21st century tales of Mr. Parker have a limited Oscar history. The ’02 version landed Sound and Visual Effects mentions. The 2004 sequel (considered by many to be the strongest of all films featuring the character) won Visual Effects and was up for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Then there was a Spidey drought with 2007’s Spider-Man 3, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 follow-up (with Andrew Garfield), and Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming from 2017 and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home not receiving any recognition. Predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) got into the Visual Effects derby, losing to Dune.

While there’s been inconsistency during awards season, there’s been plenty of consistency in the reviews for Holland’s quartet. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are as follows:

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 92% RT, 73 MC

Spider-Man: Far From Home: 91% RT, 69 MC

Spider-Man: No Way Home: 93%, 71 MC

Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 90% RT, 70 MC

Despite the mostly appreciative critical reaction, I expect this to generate no nominations. No Way Home benefitted from a year where there weren’t as many blockbusters with pricey special effects (COVID was limiting theatrical engagements). There are gripes about New Day‘s inconsistent VE. With Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey probably already having two spots locked up and others like Dune: Part Three on the way, my sense is that this goes home empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

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