For the first time in several weeks, we could have a competition for the #1 spot with Insidious: Out of the Further potentially challenging Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s fourth frame at the box office. We also have Mutiny with Jason Statham hoping to land in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The sixth entry in a 13-year-old steady horror franchise, Further could scare up the mid 30s or higher in a best case scenario. If so, Spidey could be prevented from a fourth weekend atop the charts. Yet my near $30 million projection should put it in the runner-spot assuming Tom Holland’s hero sees a decline in the mid 40s to 50% range.
Mutiny could make $10 million or so if it hits the top end of its range, but my estimate would put it in sixth. I didn’t do individual posts predicting the opening grosses for Spa Weekend (a comedy with Leslie Mann and Isla Fisher) or the nationwide expansion of Anthony Bourdain early years biopic Tony. I don’t figure either will place higher than 6th. I’ll say $6 million for Tony and just $2.3 million for Spa.
The Odyssey should drop to 3rd after three weeks in 2nd in the high teens with PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie and dino movie The End of Oak Street in 4th and 5th. As for the latter, it may suffer a significant decline considering the meh B Cinemascore grade.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $38 million
2. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $29.7 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
6. Mutiny
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (August 14-16)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieved the second best third outing at domestic multiplexes ever with $70.7 million, swinging beyond my $60.2 million call. That’s well behind the $90 million third weekend for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just in front of Avatar‘s $68 million. The MCU’s return to dominance stands at $786 million stateside thus far.
The Odyssey, despite serious competition, held in second with $23.6 million and ahead of my $21 million prediction. The epic tale grew to $505 million after five weeks.
David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and lots of CG prehistoric creatures had a softish landing in third with $21 million, easily under my $31.1 million take. As mentioned, so-so word-of-mouth might cause faster extinction in theaters.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth with $20.2 million, a tad below predecessor The Mighty Movie though ahead of my $18.7 million projection.
Katseye: Wild Hearts was fifth with $3.9 million. It admittedly was not on my radar and I didn’t do a prediction post for the documentary about the L.A. based pop group.
Finally, The Brink of War from Angel Studios faltered in seventh with $2.6 million (I said $4.5 million). Older audiences didn’t turn up for the drama about Reagan and Gorbachev’s 1986 summit in Iceland.
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.
The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.
The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.
As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $60.2 million
2. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross $31.1 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $21 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
5. The Brink of War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.
The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.
Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.
Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.
Warner Bros looks for audiences to travel to The End of Oak Street beginning August 14th. The sci-fi thriller stars Anne Hathaway, Ewan McGregor, Maisy Stella, Christian Convery, and some prehistoric creatures menacing a 1980s suburban neighborhood. David Robert Mitchell, best known for 2014’s acclaimed horror pic It Follows, directs.
Originally slated for May of last year and then spring 2026, the studio is banking on moviegoers making it a late summer blockbuster. Hathaway is suddenly everywhere this year. This is her fourth release since April with another flick coming this fall. Perhaps her exposure from seasonal hits The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey will help.
Buzz seems somewhat muted but awareness appears to be picking up. In a best case scenario, the tale of menacing dinos might score $40 million. The floor could be $20 million. I’ll say it gets toward the middle of that range in the low 30s.
The End of Oak Street opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million
For my PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie prediction, click here:
A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.
Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.
Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.
Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $153 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
3. One Night Only
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Super Troopers 3
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.
The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.
Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.
Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.
Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Spider-Man: Brand New Day appears poised to swing the best opening of 2026 when it debuts this weekend. Marking the 38th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth stand-alone Spidey entry starring Tom Holland, Destin Daniel Cretton takes over directorial duties from Jon Watts. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles with MCU regulars Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as The Punisher appearing. Other costars include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.
Going back to 2002 when Sam Raimi’s Spidey flick with Tobey Maguire set box office records, the 21st century tales of Mr. Parker have a limited Oscar history. The ’02 version landed Sound and Visual Effects mentions. The 2004 sequel (considered by many to be the strongest of all films featuring the character) won Visual Effects and was up for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Then there was a Spidey drought with 2007’s Spider-Man 3, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 follow-up (with Andrew Garfield), and Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming from 2017 and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home not receiving any recognition. Predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) got into the Visual Effects derby, losing to Dune.
While there’s been inconsistency during awards season, there’s been plenty of consistency in the reviews for Holland’s quartet. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are as follows:
Spider-Man: Homecoming: 92% RT, 73 MC
Spider-Man: Far From Home: 91% RT, 69 MC
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 93%, 71 MC
Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 90% RT, 70 MC
Despite the mostly appreciative critical reaction, I expect this to generate no nominations. No Way Home benefitted from a year where there weren’t as many blockbusters with pricey special effects (COVID was limiting theatrical engagements). There are gripes about New Day‘s inconsistent VE. With Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey probably already having two spots locked up and others like Dune: Part Three on the way, my sense is that this goes home empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.
After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:
The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).
After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.
The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $268 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $48.5 million
3. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. Moana
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.
Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.
Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.
Blogger’s Update (07/22): Hadestown: The Musical, captures a live recording of the Tony award winning smash and has a five-day theatrical run beginning Friday. I did not do an individiual prediction post for it since I am still unaware of its theater count. That said, pre-sales look strong so I’m projecting it falls just under $10 million for fifth place. Under the right circumstances, it could be as high as second.
With epic hit The Odyssey entering a fruitful second frame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hitting on July 31st, studios are avoiding any significant wide releases this weekend.
Christopher Nolan’s awards contender based on Homer’s Greek works exceeded expectations (more on that below). Along with critics, moviegoers are on its side with an A Cinemascore grade and 97% audience score on RT. The filmmaker’s Oscar-winning predecessor Oppenheimer declined 43% in its sophomore outing and I could see a similar result here. In fact, I think it might witness a smaller percentage drop. That would mean a gross nearing or at $75 million.
Disney should once again hold spots 2-3 with Moana and Toy Story 5 while Illuminations Entertainment’s Minions & Monsters places fourth. The grosses for the three family offerings could be close and that makes the rankings slightly tricky to call.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $74.6 million
2. Moana
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
4. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $9 million
5. Hadestown: The Musical
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
Box Office Results (July 17-19)
As mentioned, The Odyssey began its powerful and likely long cinematic journey to grand results with $123.5 million. That’s ahead of my $106.2 million prediction and boasts the third highest domestic Nolan debut behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight. It is also the greatest foreign start for any feature from the auteur.
Moana fell a steep but anticipated 58% to second with $17.9 million compared to my $19.1 million projection. The underwhelming two-week results for the Mouse House are $81 million.
Toy Story 5 was third with $13.7 million, a tad more than my $12.4 million forecast. Disney is not underwhelmed in this case with $429 million in five weeks.
Minions & Monsters was right behind in fourth with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.7 million estimate. The three-week tally is $136 million.
Finally, Evil Dead Burn was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.5 million) with a 65% drop in weekend #2. The total is $23 million.
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
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