Adapted from Homer’s ancient Greek works, The Odyssey looks to make a lot of dough when it opens July 17th. Undoubtedly one of 2026’s most anticipated releases, Christopher Nolan directs the fantasy action epic with Matt Damon headlining a packed cast. That includes Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Samantha Morton, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The first feature to be shot entirely on 70 mm IMAX cameras, showings on those giant screens are already sold out or filling up for the three-hour experience. Nolan’s stock is incredibly high right now. This is his follow-up to the 2023 Oscar juggernaut Oppenheimer which nearly grossed a billion dollars worldwide. No other director is more bankable than him.
With known source material, a spirited marketing campaign, and a plum mid-July release date that Nolan favors (it’s when Oppenheimer, The Dark Knight, and The Dark Knight Rises premiered), that should be a winning combo. Official reviews aren’t out yet, but early word-of-mouth is strong and it’s expected to be a major Oscar contender.
The Odyssey should surpass the $82.5 million that greeted Oppenheimer. I think it can get past $100 million even though I’m not buying the rosiest forecasts of $130 million or so (at least not yet).
The Odyssey opening weekend prediction: $106.2 million
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.
Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.
We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.
Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.
Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.
Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.
You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)
12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)
14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)
17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)
22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)
15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)
9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)
11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.
What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.
While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.
Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Entertainment System is Down
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)
Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)
13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)
11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Adele, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)
Disclosure Day, which returns Steven Spielberg to the extraterrestrial genre, marks the 34th feature from the iconic filmmaker. Of the previous 33, only five failed to receive at least Oscar nomination: 1974’s The Sugarland Express, 1989’s Always, 2004’s The Terminal, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and 2016’s The BFG. That’s one heckuva percentage with the Academy and it’s highly unlikely that Disclosure Day will become the sixth to blank with voters.
Out this weekend, the sci-fi tale reunites the director with his frequent screenwriter David Koepp. Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colman Domingo headline the cast. The review embargo is up with an encouraging 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic.
Finding Spielberg back in the blockbuster territory for the first time since 2018’s Ready Player One, this is not as Oscar baity as his last two projects (West Side Story and The Fabelmans). As far as Disclosure‘s Best Picture prospects, the possibility is there under a best case scenario. However, other mass appeal pics like Project Hail Mary (which has probably punched its BP ticket) and the upcoming The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If it manages to get into BP, Spielberg could follow suit in director. Original Screenplay might be more of a challenge.
It’s no surprise that the film’s strongest chances lie below the line, particularly in Sound and Visual Effects. Then there’s John Williams. Spielberg’s most frequent collaborator could manage an Original Score mention. He would be 95 when the 99th ceremony airs and it would mark his 55th (!) nomination with five victories to his legendary name.
As far as the cast, Firth is getting good ink. Yet it’s Blunt who could make the cut in Best Actress. Competition will clearly be key, but she is being heralded in what some critics are calling career-best work. She is nowhere near as guaranteed to get in as her The Fall Guy costar Ryan Gosling is for Hail Mary, but Blunt definitely has a prayer. If so, it would mark only her second attempt at Academy gold after being up in Supporting Actress for 2023’s Oppenheimer.
Bottom line: Disclosure Day will keep its maker’s popularity with the Academy intact. The number of nominations is the real mystery. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
John Turturro has had a decades long critically acclaimed career with memorable performances in Do the Right Thing, Miller’s Crossing, Barton Fink, Quiz Show, and O Brother Where Art Thou to name a handful. He has not found a role that has given him an Oscar nomination. Could that change with The Only Living Pickpocket in New York?
The crime thriller debuted in Sundance back in January and made a festival stop in Berlin. Noah Segan directs with Turturro as the title character and a supporting cast including Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, Steve Buscemi, Lori Tan Chinn, Karina Arroyave, Victoria Moroles, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Impressive reviews greeted it with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. Sony Pictures Classics picked up distribution rights with a planned release for the fall. With a robust campaign, Original Screenplay could be a (somewhat remote) possibility. Yet the studio may focus solely on getting Turturro that first shot with the Academy.
On paper, Best Actor is looking crowded with potential heavy hitters like Tom Cruise (Digger), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) on deck and Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) probably with a reserved slot. However, I wouldn’t discount the overdue narrative helping to get Turturro firmly in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.
Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.
The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)
15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)
18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hope
Paper Tiger
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Na Hong-jin, Hope
James Gray, Paper Tiger
Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)
13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning
Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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