20th Century Studios is hopeful that Whalefall makes a splash at the box office this weekend. Adapted from the 2023 novel by Daniel Kraus and directed by Brian Duffield (the two wrote the script together), Austin Abrams stars as a scuba diver stuck in the belly of a sperm whale. The survival thriller is also a family drama with Josh Brolin as his dad. Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd are among the supporting players.
The review embargo is up and mixed to positive notices have greeted it. “A bit too earnest” seems to be a theme. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 62. It won’t enter the discussion for any major award categories but its tech work could get noticed. Critics are being kind to it practical effects so Visual Effects is a possibility. I suspect it will make the shortlist a couple months down the line. There are heavy hitters in VE including Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Godzilla Minus Zero, and almost certainly the unscreened Dune: Part Three. Plenty of movies could be jockeying for one or at best two slots including this. The same logic applies to Best Sound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.
So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.
Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).
The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).
You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)
6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Digger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3.Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Club Kid
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In Waves
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Nuisance Bear
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael
The Invite
Digger
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Digger
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Werwulf
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Sheep Detectives
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite
3 Nominations
Digger, Elsinore, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything
In his first directorial project since 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! has premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its December 4th stateside bow. The Searchlight property from the Michael Clayton filmmaker casts Pedro Pascal as a cello prodigy returning home to his native L.A. The drama costars Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria.
I’ve had Behemoth! in my top 10 projected Best Picture nominees (usually in the 8-9 slot range) for awhile now. Now that it’s been seen, I’m less confident it makes the cut. Some reviews are quite laudatory but the 81% Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic also indicates mixed notices. I expect it will drop from BP when I do my next update.
The pic could still factor into other races. Wilde is getting some nice ink though I’m skeptical a Supporting Actress nom would occur, especially because she’s likely to get an Actress nod for The Invite. Pascal is another story. He could contend for his first Actor mention. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) seem like safe bets for inclusion in the quintet. That leaves two slots with several vying for attention. Pascal’s notices are solid enough that he belongs in that group along with Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, who I’m more confident about than others), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York), Jaafar Jackson (Michael) and, yes, Tom Cruise in Digger.
Behemoth!‘s best shot might be in Best Original Score where nine individuals contributed including celebrated composers like James Newton Howard, Michael Giacchino, and Alan Silvestri. Critics especially took notice of that aspect. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, psychological thriller Verity looks to top the box office this weekend over Tom Cruise’s Digger. All signs are indicating that it will. Michael Showalter directs with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett headlining.
While it may double the opening performance of Cruise and company (that’s what I’m projecting), reviews for both features are not great. Verity is at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes with 44 on Metacritic (Digger currently has the exact same MC score).
This is Hathaway’s fifth theatrical release of 2026. The Odyssey gives her a great opportunity for a second Supporting Actress try and possible win 14 years after her podium trip for Les Miserables. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mother Mary are both possibilities for Costume Design while The End of Oak Street hopes to get in for Visual Effects. Verity is the only Hathaway flick that appears to have no chance at awards consideration. To be fair, Amazon MGM didn’t make it for that and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.
The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.
Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.
The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.
You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)
12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Michael
Ink
Club Kid
You Can See Everything
The Social Reckoning
Werwulf
Being Heumann
Primetime
Josephine
Sense and Sensibility
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Curry Barker, Obsession
Danny Boyle, Ink
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Seth Rogen, The Invite
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Eva Victor, Behemoth!
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
John Goodman, Digger
Skyler Gisondo, Primetime
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Silent Friend
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
You Can See Everything
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wild Horse Nine
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
10 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite
5 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
Following up on the 2023’s heralded Godzilla Minus One, writer/director Takashi Yamazaki has premiered his kaiju sequel Godzilla Minus Zero at the New York Film Festival. Set to hit screens domestically on November 6th, Zero counts returning cast members Ryunosuke Kamiki, Minabi Hamabe, Yuki Yamada, Kuranosuke Sasaki, Miou Tanaka, Sakura Ando, and Hidetaka Yoshioka. Newcomers include Jun Kunimura, Masami Nagasawa, and Min Tanaka.
The Toho effort marks the 38th overall entry in the 70 year plus franchise. Many critics claimed Godzilla Minus One was at the very top in terms of quality. It scored 99% on Rotten Tomatoes with an 81 Metacritic. Big Apple reaction to the sequel isn’t far behind with 93% on RT and a 78 MC.
Reviews all praise the visual effects. In 2023, Minus One ended up being a surprise winner in VE over The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. While its victory on the night wasn’t shocking, few saw it coming in the months prior. I’ve had Zero in and out of my VE quintet over the past few months. I’m far more convinced it’ll make the cut after the festival unveiling.
I’m not expecting a repeat trip to the Oscar stage for Yamazaki and his team. Three years ago, there simply weren’t as many spectacles in contention. Zero will have to compete with Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, and one would certainly think the unscreened Dune: Part Three (both predecessors won the category). Beyond the visuals, the fiery green giant monster’s latest is a possibility in Sound if it makes the shortlist (One did not). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The onslaught of 2026 Anne Hathaway movies continues with Verity, based on the novel by It Ends with Us author Colleen Hoover. Out October 2nd, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett costar in the psychological thriller directed by Michael Showalter.
Originally slated for May, this becomes Hathaway’s fifth pic of the year behind Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, and The End of Oak Street. As far as opening weekends, it could land right in the middle and certainly behind Prada and Odyssey. It might also fall a tad behind Oak‘s $21 million premiere.
Hoover’s built-in audience should mean a decent female turnout. While I don’t see this approaching the $50 million that It Ends with Us scored out of the gate, a start in the mid 20s seems doable. That could put it in a close race for #1 with Tom Cruise’s Digger (Hathaway will team up with Cruise for summer 2028’s Days of Thunder 2).
As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.
If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.
With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.
Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.
Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.
Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:
1. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $24 million
2. Avengers: Endgame Encore
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. Forgotten Island
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
4. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
5. Primetime
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
Box Office Results (September 18-20)
Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.
Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.
Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.
The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.
Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.
The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.
Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.
So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.
That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.
Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.
The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.
It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).
Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.
Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise should easily dominate the box office charts and it’s the only new release I have in the top six. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Coming off a massive summer 2025 hit with Weapons, Cregger’s latest should have no trouble achieving the best earnings of an Evil iteration. This is the eighth overall feature in the franchise that began in 2002. My mid 50s call has it doubling the current holder in 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million.
That’s about it as far as intrigue for the weekend. Holdovers should populate slots 2-6 with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey battling it out for third and Coyote vs. Acme and Runner in a close competition for fifth. Practical Magic 2, after a subpar start, should fall to runner-up status with a decline that could approach 60%.. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $55.8 million
2. Practical Magic 2
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
3. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
4. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Runner
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 11-13)
Audiences weren’t nearly as bewitched by Practical Magic 2 as I thought they might be. Arriving 28 years after the original, Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman’s return to witchy territory came in at the low end of expectations with $30 million. I thought it would conjure up $43.5 million. It did manage to knock off Spider-Man: Brand New Day after six weeks in first.
Spidey made $8.4 million compared to my $10.3 million projection. The MCU record breaker has amassed $935 million in seven weeks and will become the highest grossing domestic picture of all time early this week (beating out Star Wars: The Force Awakens).
The Odyssey was third with $7.5 million, a bit shy of my $8.6 million call for a fantastic $600 million after nine weeks of release.
I mistakenly undervalued Runner from Angel Studios with Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson. I didn’t do an estimate for it, but the action comedy came in fourth with $6.4 million.
Coyote vs. Acme was right behind in fifth as it also made $6.4 million. The live-action/animated hybrid was in line with my $6.2 million forecast and is up to $47 million after three weeks.
Two other newcomers failed to attract eyeballs. South Korean sci-fi/action spectacle Hope was eighth with $3.2 million and $4.9 million since its Wednesday premiere. That’s well below my respective projections of $5.9 million and $9.4 million.
Andrew Garfield’s The Uprising was ninth with a paltry $3.3 million (I said $4.2 million). The Robin Hood origin story was another flop for that character after 2018’s Robin Hood and this summer’s The Death of Robin Hood.
