For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.
I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.
Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Verity
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
2. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Digger
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. Avengers Endgame: Encore
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: EndgameEncore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.
Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.
Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.
Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.
The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.
We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.
The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.
Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.
The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.
You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)
12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Michael
Ink
Club Kid
You Can See Everything
The Social Reckoning
Werwulf
Being Heumann
Primetime
Josephine
Sense and Sensibility
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Curry Barker, Obsession
Danny Boyle, Ink
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Seth Rogen, The Invite
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Eva Victor, Behemoth!
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
John Goodman, Digger
Skyler Gisondo, Primetime
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Silent Friend
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
You Can See Everything
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wild Horse Nine
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
10 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite
5 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.
If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.
With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.
Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.
Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.
Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:
1. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $24 million
2. Avengers: Endgame Encore
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. Forgotten Island
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
4. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
5. Primetime
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
Box Office Results (September 18-20)
Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.
Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.
Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.
The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.
Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.
Sporting an extra couple minutes of runtime from the 2019 original and primed to build anticipation for Doomsday, Disney/Marvel unveils Avengers: Endgame Encore on September 25th. The epic 22nd feature in the MCU is already the second highest grossing pic worldwide ever (behind Avatar) and would need a bit over $125 million globally to take the crown back.
The re-release immediately follows another record for the franchise. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just became the (unadjusted for inflation) #1 domestic earner of all time. Endgame, with its voluminous list of cast members from Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark to the Chris triumvirate (Evans, Hemsworth, Pratt) to Robert Redford’s final screen appearance and so many more, should benefit from being sandwiched between New Day and Doomsday.
Estimates have this making anywhere from late teens to late 20s. I’m going more on the lower end of that spectrum. That might put it in the mix for the top spot depending on the sophomore frame for Resident Evil.
Avengers: Endgame Encore opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise should easily dominate the box office charts and it’s the only new release I have in the top six. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Coming off a massive summer 2025 hit with Weapons, Cregger’s latest should have no trouble achieving the best earnings of an Evil iteration. This is the eighth overall feature in the franchise that began in 2002. My mid 50s call has it doubling the current holder in 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million.
That’s about it as far as intrigue for the weekend. Holdovers should populate slots 2-6 with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey battling it out for third and Coyote vs. Acme and Runner in a close competition for fifth. Practical Magic 2, after a subpar start, should fall to runner-up status with a decline that could approach 60%.. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $55.8 million
2. Practical Magic 2
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
3. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
4. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Runner
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 11-13)
Audiences weren’t nearly as bewitched by Practical Magic 2 as I thought they might be. Arriving 28 years after the original, Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman’s return to witchy territory came in at the low end of expectations with $30 million. I thought it would conjure up $43.5 million. It did manage to knock off Spider-Man: Brand New Day after six weeks in first.
Spidey made $8.4 million compared to my $10.3 million projection. The MCU record breaker has amassed $935 million in seven weeks and will become the highest grossing domestic picture of all time early this week (beating out Star Wars: The Force Awakens).
The Odyssey was third with $7.5 million, a bit shy of my $8.6 million call for a fantastic $600 million after nine weeks of release.
I mistakenly undervalued Runner from Angel Studios with Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson. I didn’t do an estimate for it, but the action comedy came in fourth with $6.4 million.
Coyote vs. Acme was right behind in fifth as it also made $6.4 million. The live-action/animated hybrid was in line with my $6.2 million forecast and is up to $47 million after three weeks.
Two other newcomers failed to attract eyeballs. South Korean sci-fi/action spectacle Hope was eighth with $3.2 million and $4.9 million since its Wednesday premiere. That’s well below my respective projections of $5.9 million and $9.4 million.
Andrew Garfield’s The Uprising was ninth with a paltry $3.3 million (I said $4.2 million). The Robin Hood origin story was another flop for that character after 2018’s Robin Hood and this summer’s The Death of Robin Hood.
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.
Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.
My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyotevs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Practical Magic 2
Predicted Gross: $43.5 million
2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. Hope
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. The Uprising
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (September 4-7)
Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.
The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.
Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.
The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.
Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.
Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.
In 1998, Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman headlined the witchy fantasy Practical Magic and it grossed a solid $46 million domestically ($94 million in today’s bucks). It has since gained a significant cult following and the two stars return for Practical Magic 2 on September 11th. Dianne Wiest and Stockard Channing reprise their roles from the original. Susanne Bier takes over directorial duties from Griffin Dunne. New cast members include Joey King, Lee Pace, Maisie Williams, Xolo Maridueña, and Solly McLeod.
At the least, this should be the movie that finally dislodges Spider-Man: Brand New Day from the #1 spot after six weeks. The floor for this is probably $30 million. A sizable female audience should turn up and even some younger viewers who have caught part 1 on streaming or cable. Nostalgia should be a powerful spell for plenty of paying customers.
A best case scenario could be Magic earning more in its first weekend than Magic‘s entire stateside run. My hunch is to take the slight under for what would be a great opening for Warner Bros.
Practical Magic 2 opening weekend prediction: $43.5 million
There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.
The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.
Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.
As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.
And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. By Any Means
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.
After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.
The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.
Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.
With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).
Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.
August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.
That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.
I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. The Dog Stars
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Box Office Results (August 21-23)
The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).
Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.
The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.
The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.
Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.
Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.
Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.
