99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

May 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Video game based martial arts sequel Mortal Kombat II looks to kick off in the #1 spot while family friendly mystery The Sheep Detectives and concert pic Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Mortal Kombat II Box Office Prediction

The Sheep Detectives Box Office Prediction

Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Box Office Prediction

2021’s Mortal Kombat franchise reboot faced hurdles from COVID related closures, but still managed to significantly top expectations with a $21 million start. It is anticipated that the sequel could double that figure and that’s where I’m projecting it. If it underwhelms and doesn’t match my prediction, a #1 debut could be in jeopardy.

That’s because holdovers The Devil Wears Prada and Michael loom. The former performed in line with its general anticipated range (more on that below) while Michael showed sturdy legs in its sophomore outing. I do believe the former will be more front-loaded with a drop over 50% (though the Mother’s Day audience could help). If Michael falls less than 35% (definitely achievable), it could stay in the runner-up position.

The other newbies should follow. The Sheep Detectives with Hugh Jackman appears headed for a fourth place showing in the lower teens. I have the Billie Eilish concert film (directed by James Cameron!) just under double digits and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $37.6 million

3. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $36 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D)

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

While not quite beginning in grand fashion and exceeding expectations like Michael did, The Devil Wears Prada 2 still easily ruled the charts. With Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others reprising their roles from 20 years ago, the sequel hauled in $76.7 million. While that’s below my $86.5 million prediction, it is still a laudable figure. As mentioned above, the opening could be somewhat top heavy.

Michael showed commendable movement in second with a 44% decline at $54.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $51 million take as the record-setting biopic has earned $184 million in two weeks.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was third with $12.6 million, in line with my $12.1 million projection. The animated sequel crossed a milestone after five weeks with $402 million.

Project Hail Mary was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.2 million) for a seven-week tally of $318 million.

Haunted house horror flick Hokum, sporting fresh reviews, was fifth with $6.4 million. The Adam Scott headlined feature managed to outdo my $4.2 million forecast.

Finally, Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of Animal Farm flopped in sixth place with only $3.3 million though it did get beyond my $2.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 1-3 Box Office Predictions

Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction

Hokum Box Office Prediction

Animal Farm Box Office Prediction

Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.

Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.

As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.

Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends. However, due to the sheer size of its performance, I will hedge and say a mid to high 40s drop could occur.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $51 million

3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Hokum

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.

After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.

Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.

The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Michael looks to set records for its genre just as its title subject set records in the music business decades ago. Antoine Fuqua’s look at Michael Jackson’s life is the primary wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Michael Box Office Prediction

As outlined in that post, Michael looks to surpass the $60 million mark that Straight Outta Compton set for best ever in the musical biopic field. I am projecting it will do so with plenty of room to spare in the low-80s. If it hits that figure, it will certainly stand a good shot at surpassing the $216 million that Bohemian Rhapsody made back in 2018. If and when it achieves a gross beyond that number, it’ll set the high mark overall domestically in the genre. There is some concern that subpar reviews might be a hindrance, but I’m still banking on a wide audience turnout.

The emergence of the King of Pop will cause The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary to drop spots after being 1-2 for the last three weekends. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should see the biggest percentage drop of holdovers are an unimpressive start (more on that below) with The Drama rounding out the top five.

I will note that Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway could pop into the high five with a planned expansion. However, I’ve yet to see a theater count following a limited release on the coasts so I’m not placing it there.

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $81 million

2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million

3. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ruled the charts once again in its third frame with $36.4 million, in range with my $38.4 million prediction. After three weeks, the animated sequel has generated $356 million as it should blast past $400 million in short order.

Project Hail Mary was runner-up and it continued a remarkable run of meager declines. The sci-fi critical and commercial hit made $20.5 million, ahead of my $17.9 million forecast. The five-week total is rock solid $285 million.

Horror heavy franchise reboot Lee Cronin’s The Mummy stumbled in third with $13.5 million, under my $17.2 million take. With so-so reviews, scary movie fans did not turn out in the way Warner Bros. hoped for. With a C+ Cinemascore grade, look for this to wrap up its theatrical run quickly.

The Drama was fourth with $4.8 million, not matching my $6 million call. The unconventional romance is up to $39 million after three weekend.

Rom com You, Me & Tuscany fell 50% in its sophomore outing to fifth with $3.8 million (I said $4.5 million) for $14 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

April 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.

As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.

Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.

Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.

You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.

Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Picture

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.

This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.

My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

All of a Sudden

Cry to Heaven

Digger

Fatherland

Fjord

Ink

No One Cares

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Dune: Part Three

Jack of Spades

Josephine

A Long Winter

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Paper Tiger

A Place in Hell

Saturn Return

The Social Reckoning

Tony

Toy Story 5

Werwulf

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Ink

Beth de Araújo, Josephine

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

April 10-12 Box Office Predictions

After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.

Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.

Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.

The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.

Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $79.1 million

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

3. You, Me & Tuscany

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.

Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.

The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.

Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.

Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

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