Tag: Arthur the King

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction
The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.

With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.

The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.

The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

2. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The First Omen

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 29-31)

March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.

Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.

Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.

Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 29-31 Box Office Predictions

The fifth entry in the MonsterVerse series stomps into theaters this weekend with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. It is the sole wide release newcomer over the Easter frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire Box Office Prediction

The latest battle royale between iconic creatures should easily top the charts. Predecessor Godzilla vs. Kong still faced COVID challenges in 2021 and I think Empire should have no trouble surpassing its low 30s start. My estimate puts this just ahead of 2019’s premiere for Godzilla: King of the Monsters.

After an opening right in line with expectations (more on that below), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire should slide to second (big weekend for sequels ending in the word empire by the way). How far it dips is worth monitoring. 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot fell 54% after mediocre word-of-mouth in its sophomore outing. 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife eased 45%, but it had the advantage of weekend #2 taking place over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’m basically splitting the difference with Empire experiencing a decline approaching 50%.

Holdover sequels Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 should populate the three and four slots with mid 40s drops. The five spot should be between Immaculate and Arthur the King.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $52.2 million

2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $11 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

5. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (March 22-24)

The Ghostbusters franchise has been pretty darn consistent over the last near decade. The aforementioned reboot from 2016 with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig debuted with $46 million. Afterlife kicked off with $44 million. Frozen Empire heated up the charts with $45 million, a bit ahead of my $42.7 million prediction. As mentioned, this is generally where most prognosticators figured this would fall and even at the higher end of that range.

Dune: Part Two was second with $17.6 million, on target with my $17.4 million call. The sci-fi spectacle is up to $233 million after four weeks.

Kung Fu Panda 4 went from 1st to 3rd in its third weekend with $16.5 million, a bit below my $18.2 million call. The animated adventure has amassed $132 million thus far.

Sydney Sweeney’s fright fest Immaculate was fourth with Neon’s highest opening of all time at $5.3 million. I was close at $4.9 million. While this isn’t an overly impressive haul, it does give the studio bragging rights and helps solidify Sweeney’s status as Hollywood’s It Girl of the moment.

Arthur the King rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $3.8 million) for a muted two-week tally of $14 million.

Finally, I didn’t make a projection for the critically acclaimed horror flick Late Night with the Devil. It opened in sixth with $2.8 million on just over 1000 screens and that marks a best ever for IFC Films.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction
Immaculate Box Office Prediction

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Arthur the King Box Office Prediction
Love Lies Bleeding Box Office Prediction

Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.

Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.

The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.

Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Love Lies Bleeding

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 8-10)

DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.

Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.

In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.

Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.

Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Arthur the King Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping for some doggone solid returns when Arthur the King debuts March 15th. Based on the real life tale of an adventure racing team who pick up a wounded hound on their trek, Mark Wahlberg heads the cast with Simon Cellan Jones (who recently directed the lead in The Family Plan) behind the camera. Costars include Simu Liu, Juliet Rylance, Nathalie Emmanuel, Ali Suliman, Paul Guilfoyle, and Bears Grylls (as Bear Grylls).

Canine content can exceed expectations at multiplexes. Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog took in nearly $15 million in February 2022. That could be a fair comp and there’s where I have it getting pretty close to.

Arthur the King opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million

For my Love Lies Bleeding prediction, click here:

Love Lies Bleeding Box Office Prediction