July 24-26 Box Office Predictions

With epic hit The Odyssey entering a fruitful second frame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hitting on July 31st, studios are avoiding any significant wide releases this weekend.

Christopher Nolan’s awards contender based on Homer’s Greek works exceeded expectations (more on that below). Along with critics, moviegoers are on its side with an A Cinemascore grade and 97% audience score on RT. The filmmaker’s Oscar-winning predecessor Oppenheimer declined 43% in its sophomore outing and I could see a similar result here. That would mean a gross nearing or at $70 million.

Disney should once again hold spots 2-3 with Moana and Toy Story 5 while Illuminations Entertainment’s Minions & Monsters places fourth. The grosses for the three family offerings could be close and that makes the rankings slightly tricky to call.

I expect current #5 Evil Dead Burn to have a heftier fall compared to #6 The Invite and that should mean Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the five spot.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $69.6 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. The Invite

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (July 17-19)

As mentioned, The Odyssey began its powerful and likely long cinematic journey to grand results with $123.5 million. That’s ahead of my $106.2 million prediction and boasts the third highest domestic Nolan debut behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight. It is also the greatest foreign start for any feature from the auteur.

Moana fell a steep but anticipated 58% to second with $17.9 million compared to my $19.1 million projection. The underwhelming two-week results for the Mouse House are $81 million.

Toy Story 5 was third with $13.7 million, a tad more than my $12.4 million forecast. Disney is not underwhelmed in this case with $429 million in five weeks.

Minions & Monsters was right behind in fourth with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.7 million estimate. The three-week tally is $136 million.

Finally, Evil Dead Burn was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.5 million) with a 65% drop in weekend #2. The total is $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…