Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.
That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.
For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.
Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.
The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.
Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.
The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.
You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)
12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Michael
Ink
Club Kid
You Can See Everything
The Social Reckoning
Werwulf
Being Heumann
Primetime
Josephine
Sense and Sensibility
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Curry Barker, Obsession
Danny Boyle, Ink
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Seth Rogen, The Invite
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Eva Victor, Behemoth!
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
John Goodman, Digger
Skyler Gisondo, Primetime
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Silent Friend
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
You Can See Everything
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wild Horse Nine
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
10 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite
5 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
In a year with animated pics that appear to be Oscar players in that category already (Toy Story 5, Hoppers, Iron Boy, Tangles, Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom, Minions & Monsters) and upcoming contenders that have yet to screen (Ray Gunn, Wildwood), it sounds like Forgotten Island can be included among the hopefuls. The DreamWorks Animation release is an original story set in the Philippines during the 1990s. Out Friday, the comedic fantasy adventure is directed by Joel Crawford (a DreamWorks vet with The Croods: A New Age and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to his credit) and Januel Mercado. Voiceover work comes from H.E.R., Liza Soberano, Dave Franco, Jenny Slate, Manny Jacinto, Dolly de Leon, Jo Koy, Ronny Chieng, and Lea Salonga.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and and a 79 Metacritic, the reviews are impressive enough that Academy voters may remember it in their Animated Feature quintet. That said, the aforementioned competition is strong. I don’t think this is a threat to win and it’s not a given that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.
September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.
Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.
Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.
There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).
You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)
16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fatherland
Artificial
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Artificial
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sense and Sensibility
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)
10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)
3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)
4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Musk
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“La Playa” from The Black Ball
TBD from Hexed
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.
The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.
The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.
As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $60.2 million
2. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross $31.1 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $21 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
5. The Brink of War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.
The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.
Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.
Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.
A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.
Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.
Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.
Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $153 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
3. One Night Only
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Super Troopers 3
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.
The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.
Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.
Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.
Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.
After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:
The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).
After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.
The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $268 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $48.5 million
3. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. Moana
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.
Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.
Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.
