Animation domination looks to be in order over the holiday weekend with Minions & Monsters debuting and Toy Story 5 sliding to the runner-up slot. Angel Studios is also releasing Young Washington focused on the formative years of America’s 1st POTUS. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me/Minions franchise, Monsters is unleashed on Wednesday. The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday where many families will opt for literal fireworks instead of causing financial ones at the multiplex. I’ll project mid 60s for Friday to Sunday while topping nine digits over the five-day rollout.
Young Washington‘s projections are all over the map with some as low as $10 million and others in the $30 million range. The timing of release is hopefully shrewd for its studio. I’m basically splitting the difference with a high teens gross and that should be good for third.
Toy Story 5 may lose around 50% of its audience (especially with the Minions competition) for second place. The sophomore frame decline for Supergirl should be far more significant after a weak opening (more on that below). I have it plummeting in the mid 60s for low teens while Obsession should round out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
3. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
5. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
Toy Story 5 fell an understandable 56% in weekend #2 to $70.8 million after a franchise best start. I had it holding stronger at $80.6 million though Disney/Pixar is perfectly happy with the $298 million in its domestic coffers.
The story of the week was the collective meh that audiences and critics greeted Supergirl with. The second pic in the newly configured DC Universe after last summer’s Superman, the stand-alone effort for the Man of Steel’s cousin brought in only $37.1 million compared to my $44.5 million call. To put that in perspective, Superman from last summer started off with $125 million.
Obsession was third with $9.7 million, a touch more than my $9 million forecast. The horror sensation has amassed $233 million after seven weeks.
No previous Jackass flick has earned less than $20 million out of the gate before now. However, series finale Jackass: Best and Last ensured it probably will be the swan song. It opened in fourth with a disappointing $8.4 million, under my $11.3 million projection.
Disclosure Day was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $8.4 million) for an underwhelming three-week take of $94 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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