The latest DC Comics entry veers into full R rated body horror mode via Clayface which opens Friday. James Watkins directs the gory tale with Tom Rhys Harries in the title role and Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan providing support.
With 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, Clayface is generating varied critical responses. This is not seen as an Oscar player for Warner Bros/DC with a notable exception. Those body horror effects could be rewarded in the Makeup & Hairstyling category. Recent ceremonies have seen the genre become more a player in that race with The Substance winning in 2024 and The Ugly Stepsister landing a nom last year. This could certainly make the contending quintet while a victory is likely out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.
Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.
As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.
Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.
Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $22 million
3. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
7. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
8. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.
A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.
Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.
Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.
Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.
Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.
It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.
Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.
Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.
I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.
That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.
Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.
As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $54.3 million
2. Evil Dead Burn
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $20 million
4. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
5. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $11 million
6. The Invite
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 3-5)
With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.
Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.
Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.
Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.
Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.
Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.
Animation domination looks to be in order over the holiday weekend with Minions & Monsters debuting and Toy Story 5 sliding to the runner-up slot. Angel Studios is also releasing Young Washington focused on the formative years of America’s 1st POTUS. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me/Minions franchise, Monsters is unleashed on Wednesday. The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday where many families will opt for literal fireworks instead of causing financial ones at the multiplex. I’ll project mid 60s for Friday to Sunday while topping nine digits over the five-day rollout.
Young Washington‘s projections are all over the map with some as low as $10 million and others in the $30 million range. The timing of release is hopefully shrewd for its studio. I’m basically splitting the difference with a high teens gross and that should be good for third.
Toy Story 5 may lose around 50% of its audience (especially with the Minions competition) for second place. The sophomore frame decline for Supergirl should be far more significant after a weak opening (more on that below). I have it plummeting in the mid 60s for low teens while Obsession should round out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Toy Story5
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
3. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
5. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
Toy Story 5 fell an understandable 56% in weekend #2 to $70.8 million after a franchise best start. I had it holding stronger at $80.6 million though Disney/Pixar is perfectly happy with the $298 million in its domestic coffers.
The story of the week was the collective meh that audiences and critics greeted Supergirl with. The second pic in the newly configured DC Universe after last summer’s Superman, the stand-alone effort for the Man of Steel’s cousin brought in only $37.1 million compared to my $44.5 million call. To put that in perspective, Superman from last summer started off with $125 million.
Obsession was third with $9.7 million, a touch more than my $9 million forecast. The horror sensation has amassed $233 million after seven weeks.
No previous Jackass flick has earned less than $20 million out of the gate before now. However, series finale Jackass: Best and Last ensured it probably will be the swan song. It opened in fourth with a disappointing $8.4 million, under my $11.3 million projection.
Disclosure Day was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $8.4 million) for an underwhelming three-week take of $94 million.
Supergirl marks the second feature in the new James Gunn curated iteration of the DC Universe behind last summer’s Superman reboot. Directed by Craig Gillespie, Milly Alcock (who briefly appeared in the Man of Steel’s 2025 adventure) plays the title character. David Corenswet appears as Supes with the supporting cast including Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, and Jason Momoa as bad guy Lobo (not Aquaman).
Box office expectations aren’t near as high for this DC effort compared to what was happening a year ago. Reviews were mixed on Superman. However, reaction to Supergirl is more negative. While Alcock is getting some decent ink, Rotten Tomatoes is at 57% with 48 on Metacritic.
The only awards races worth considering are Visual Effects, Sound, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Superman didn’t get into any of those despite being shortlisted in the first two. Supergirl‘s best shot might be in Makeup and Hairstyling where Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy managed three nominations. Interestingly critics are comparing Supergirl less with Guardians and more with Mad Max flicks. Like 2024’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, the chances are strong this will receive zero noms. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.
With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.
The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.
I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.
Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million
