Oscar Predictions: Fatherland

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.

This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.

Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.

While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her inclusion in Best Actress is high. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…