Tag: August Diehl

Oscar Predictions: Fatherland

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.

This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.

Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.

While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her potential inclusion in Best Actress is high though not a given. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). The vote splitting between both roles will be something to keep in mind. Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. Could Mubi go supporting instead? However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

On a weekend where the eyes of box office forecasters are trained on the debuts of Wicked and Gladiator II, Angel Studios will attempt to find an audience with Bonhoeffer. The historical drama is directed by Todd Komarnicki with Jonas Dassler playing the anti-Nazi dissident title character. Costars include August Diehl, David Jonsson, Flula Borg, Moritz Bleibtreu, and Clarke Peters.

Last summer, the film’s distributor found massive and unexpected success in the form of Sound of Freedom. Since then, their openings have been quieter. That includes After Death ($5.1 million), The Shift ($4.4 million), Cabrini ($7.2 million), and Sight ($2.8 million).

If this manages to reach $4 million, that should be enough to put it in fourth place. That’s exactly where I’m putting it.

Bonhoeffer opening weekend prediction: $4 million

For my Wicked prediction, click here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction

For my Gladiator II prediction, click here:

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: A Hidden Life

In his near half century as an acclaimed director, Terrence Malick has only made ten features and his latest is the World War II era drama A Hidden Life. The Fox Searchlight pic debuted early this summer at the Cannes Film Festival and has continued to Toronto before its December release.

Some critical reaction indicates it could be an awards player while other reviews haven’t been quite as effusive. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 74%. Malick has seen two of his works attract Academy attention in the last two decades with 1998’s The Thin Red Line and 2011’s The Tree of Life. Both received Picture nods and nabbed direction calls for Malick.

With Jojo Rabbit garnering a heavily mixed response in Toronto, perhaps Fox (now owned by Disney) could shift its marketing focus to Life. I wouldn’t count their campaign abilities out, but this will definitely need a strong push to contend. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…