July 15-17 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new titles populate the mid-July box office though Thor is unlikely to be dethroned in his second frame. We have rural drama Where the Crawdads Sing (based on the bestseller), animated martial arts family comedy Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and the 1950s set dramedy Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Where the Crawdads Sing Box Office Prediction

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Box Office Prediction

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Box Office Prediction

Despite solid reviews thus far, Paris won’t reach the top five and top ten could even be tricky. Part of that is due to its smallish output on roughly 900 screens. My estimate is $2.3 million.

The wild card could be Crawdads. The novel is recent (it was the top selling book of 2019) and has its ardent fans. A debut of over $20 million is possible and it could reach the runner-up position. I’m putting it a bit under that and that should mean third place.

As for Paws, my projection of just over $10 million would put it in a dead heat with Top Gun: Maverick in its 8th weekend. If anything, I could see my guesstimate for the animated pic being revised down.

Thor: Love and Thunder hammered out the third largest opening of 2022 (more on that below). Yet the B+ Cinemascore average (low for the MCU) could mean a hefty sophomore dip. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the same grade and tumbled 67%. A low mid 60s drop for the Asgardian king should mean a $50-55 million range.

Minions: The Rise of Gru should remain in second (unless Crawdads impresses) with a third weekend take of between $20-25 million.

Here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Thor: Love and Thunder

Predicted Gross: $50.2 million

2. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $23.1 million

3. Where the Crawdads Sing

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

Box Office Results (July 8-10)

Thor: Love and Thunder easily set a personal best among the four Chris Hemsworth led pics with $144.1 million, besting predecessor Ragnarok by over $20 million. While a rock solid start, it’s on the lower end of expectations and I said $155.7 million. Out of the 29 MCU blockbusters, it ranks 12th as far as beginnings.

Minions: The Rise of Gru slipped to second with $46.1 million, just shy of my $48.8 million prediction. The Illumination smash is up to $210 million already.

Top Gun: Maverick was third with $15.5 million and I was more generous with $18.5 million. Tom Cruise’s phenomenon is flying high with $597 million.

Elvis was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11.6 million) as the biopic has taken in  a sturdy $91 million.

Jurassic World: Dominion rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I went with $9.1 million. Total is $350 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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