Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.
An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.
That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.
Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.
The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).
Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.
One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Tom Gormican and his cowriter Kevin Etten’s reverence for Nicolas Cage is on full display in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. So is their affection for the kind of action packed and occasionally aimless buddy comedies that Cage might’ve starred in 30 years ago without all the meta sprinklings. Oh, and there’s also a deep reservoir of digging Paddington 2.
Playing a fictionalized version of himself (he might even be more normal in this), Nicolas Cage is smarting from the loss of a movie role when he decides to give up acting. He’s also estranged from his 16-year-old daughter (Lily Sheen) and ex-wife (Sharon Horgan) – or is at least always making everything about himself. Facing financial woes as described by his agent (Neil Patrick Harris), he accepts a million dollar payday to jet to the Spanish Mediterranean. The assignment: hang out with billionaire Javi (Pedro Pascal), who may also be the head of a crime syndicate. His host is a huge fan of the actor and this allows for references to obvious titles like The Rock, Con Air, Face/Off and National Treasure. Most amusingly, the 1994 Secret Service romp Guarding Tess costarring Shirley MacLaine is given its share of exposure.
CIA agents Tiffany Haddish and Ike Barinholtz (two funny people given nothing funny to do) are convinced that Javi has kidnapped the daughter of a politician. His guest of honor is recruited with breaking her out. For much of the running time, Talent coasts on just that of Cage and Pascal. Their chemistry clicks as they start plotting their own screenplay which this often mirrors.
Unlike, say, the brilliant Being John Malkovich – Gormicon’s invention feels like more like a novelty item. Yet it is a frequently witty one mixed with a surprising amount of sincerity. In fact, I found myself wanting it to dig a bit deeper at times. The screenplay attempts to say something about its two protagonists always being forced to act like someone they’re not before it gets distracted by the next reference (The Bees!). In Cage’s massive filmography filled with triumphs, turkeys and Tess‘s, there’s an enjoyable enough catalogue to sift through.
Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million
Two new titles vie for action fan attention this weekend as military themed 12 Strong and heist themed Den of Thieves debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
12 Strong could potentially make a play for the top spot, but I suspect Jumanji will continue its dominance in first place. Looking over the post MLK weekend from years past, it’s not rare for holdovers to experience smallish declines. I suspect that will hold true for Jumanji and ThePost.
Along those lines, TheGreatestShowman should drop to fourth with TheCommuter roundingoutthetop5. My $6.1 million estimate for DenofThieves puts it outside my high five.
And with that – here they are!
1. Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. ThePost
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. 12Strong
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. TheGreatestShowman
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million
5. TheCommuter
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (January12–15)
Jumanji continued its remarkable run atop the charts over the four day MLK weekend with $35.1 million, edging past my prediction of $32.7 million. The smash sequel has amassed $291 million since its Christmas time debut.
There were plenty of new releases and expansions this weekend and Steven Spielberg’s Oscar hopeful ThePost fared best in second with $23 million, in line with my $22.3 million estimate.
TheGreatestShowman continued its stellar run with $16.1 million, singing beyond my $12.6 million prediction. It’s ready to join the century club as it stands at $98 million.
Liam Neeson took fourth with TheCommuter as it opened with a fairly solid $15.8 million (I was a touch lower at $14.6 million).
One of the surprises of the weekend was the disappointing performance for critically acclaimed kiddie sequel Paddington2, debuting in fifth with a mediocre $15 million. I had it pegged for a #2 premiere at $22.4 million. Oops.
StarWars: TheLastJedi was sixth with $14.6 million (I said $15.5 million) for $594 million total.
Insidious: TheLastKey fell from second to seventh with $14.3 million compared to my $13.2 million estimate. It’s earned $50 million in its two weeks of release.
In eighth place, ProudMary with Taraji P. Henson had a muted start with $11.7 million, well under my $18.5 million projection.
PitchPerfect3 was ninth with $7.3 million. My prediction? $7.3 million. Woot woot. The three-quel is also on the cusp of nine figures with $96 million.
I incorrectly had DarkestHour outside the top 10, but it placed 10th with $5.4 million and $36 million.
It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful ThePost, Liam Neeson thriller TheCommuter, and Taraji P. Henson action flick ProudMary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over ThePost for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for ProudMary over TheCommuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the StarWars hold.
As for the current #2, Insidious: TheLastKey, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:
1. Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle
Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
2. Paddington2
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ThePost
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. ProudMary
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
5. StarWars: TheLastJedi
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)
6. TheCommuter
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
7. Insidious: TheLastKey
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)
8. TheGreatestShowman
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)
9. PitchPerfect3
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)
10. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)
BoxOfficeResults (January5–7)
As expected, Jumanji vaulted over StarWars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.
The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: TheLastKey, exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.
TheLastKey dropped TheLastJedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.
TheGreatestShowman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.
Finally, PitchPerfect3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.
Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.
The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.
Paddington2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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