Box Office Predictions: January 12-15

It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington 2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful The Post, Liam Neeson thriller The Commuter, and Taraji  P. Henson action flick Proud Mary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over The Post for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for Proud Mary over The Commuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the Star Wars hold.

As for the current #2, Insidious: The Last Key, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

2. Paddington 2

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Proud Mary

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

7. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

8. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)

9. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)

10. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)

Box Office Results (January 57)

As expected, Jumanji vaulted over Star Wars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.

The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: The Last Key,  exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.

The Last Key dropped The Last Jedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.

The Greatest Showman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.

Finally, Pitch Perfect 3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.

And that does it for now folks! Until next time…

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