Supergirl will attempt to fly high and challenge Toy Story 5 for box office bragging rights as June closes out, but it faces considerable odds. The DC Studios adventure opens alongside Johnny Knoxville and his band of pranksters in Jackass: Best and Last. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The rosiest estimates have Supergirl approaching $60 million. Even if that occurs, it’s probably not enough to catch Toy Story 5 which should ease in the mid to possibly high 50s percentage range. I’m taking the under with Supergirl and projecting around $50 million. That would leave it well behind in the runner-up position.
Jackass: Best and Last should the first of the five big screen franchise entries to open under $20 million. My low teens forecast would mean a third place showing as the series may be running out of steam with the alleged final edition.
Holdovers Obsession and Disclosure Day may flip spots as the former should have a smaller decline.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $69.2 million
2. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $49.6 million
3. Jackass: Best and Last
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $9 million
5. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (June 19-21)
Toy Story 5 had the second best Disney/Pixar sequel opening in history. That also means it had the second strongest beginning for any animated feature behind Incredibles 2. The return of Woody and Buzz kicked off in line with expectations at $159.6 million. I was a bit more generous with $166.8 million, but this is still a massively pleasing result for the Mouse House.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, after a premiere at the bottom end of its anticipated range, fell a troubling 60% in its sophomore outing to $17.7 million. I figured it would hold a bit better at $21.5 million. That B Cinemascore grade is evidenced by the performance.
Obsession made $13.3 million in third as it’s finally starting to drop from week to week. I had it at $15.2 million and the horror phenomenon has hauled in $215 million after six weeks.
A24 smash Backrooms was fourth with $7.1 million (I said $6.6 million) for a four-week tally of $175 million. The news wasn’t good for A24 everywhere (more on that in a second).
Scary Movie rounded out the top five with $6.3 million, on target with my $6.1 million call. The spoof sequel is near nine digits with $97 million in three weeks.
That aforementioned A24 bad news came from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman. With middling reviews and non-existent buzz, it bombed in 8th place with $2.8 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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