Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.
Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.
As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.
Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $59 million
3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
4. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Hokum
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (April 24-26)
Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.
After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.
Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.
The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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