Tag: The Devil Wears Prada 2

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

May 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions as weekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.

Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction
The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction
Pressure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.

That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.

Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.

As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.

Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:

1. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $57 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

4. Michael

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Breadwinner

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.

Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.

Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.

The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.

Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.

Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.

Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 22-25 Box Office Predictions

The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction
Passenger Box Office Prediction
I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.

Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.

Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.

As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:

1. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)

4. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)

5. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)

6. Passenger

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)

7. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)

8. I Love Boosters

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.

Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.

In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.

The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.

Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Critically hailed horror flick Obsession and Guy Ritchie’s action thriller In the Grey hope for breakout performances as holdovers look to rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Obsession Box Office Prediction
In the Grey Box Office Prediction

Obsession is a genuine question mark with solid reviews on its side and a chance to exceed expectations. I’m playing it safe and putting it just under double digits and that likely would mean a fifth place showing. However, a best case scenario could be a debut in third.

I don’t see In the Grey outdoing estimates and my mid single digits projection leaves Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest in sixth.

Mother’s Day weekend saw The Devil Wears Prada 2 hold up better than I assumed (more on that below). This weekend, I think Michael has a terrific shot at jumping from third to first. The musical biopic may only ease in the low 30s while Prada should decline over 40%.

Mortal Kombat II‘s plummet should be more severe in the mid 60s while The Sheep Detectives could experience a meager dip with family audiences catching up in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $25.8 million

2. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

6. In the Grey

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

The Devil Wears Prada 2 took advantage of the Mother’s Day frame with a second weekend in 1st at $41.6 million. The sequel bested my $36 million prediction for a commendable two-week total of $143 million. It has already (not adjusted for inflation) topped the 2006 original’s $124 million domestic haul.

Mortal Kombat II kicked off at the lower end of prognoses with $38.5 million in the runner-up spot, not matching my kinder $43.1 million call. While the martial arts action sequel’s performance surpassed the $23 million that its 2021 predecessor debuted with, COVID complications and a simultaneous HBO Max release make that comparison tricky.

Michael was third in weekend #3 with $37.9 million, on target with my $37.6 million take. The record-setter for its genre grew to $241 million stateside.

The Sheep Detectives was fourth with $15 million, in line with my $14.6 million forecast. While parents and kiddos didn’t exactly (apologies) flock to it, the road ahead looks bright with encouraging word-of-mouth.

James Cameron’s concert doc Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) rounded out the top five at $7 million, not quite reaching my $8.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    May 8-10 Box Office Predictions

    Video game based martial arts sequel Mortal Kombat II looks to kick off in the #1 spot while family friendly mystery The Sheep Detectives and concert pic Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

    Mortal Kombat II Box Office Prediction
    The Sheep Detectives Box Office Prediction
    Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Box Office Prediction

    2021’s Mortal Kombat franchise reboot faced hurdles from COVID related closures, but still managed to significantly top expectations with a $21 million start. It is anticipated that the sequel could double that figure and that’s where I’m projecting it. If it underwhelms and doesn’t match my prediction, a #1 debut could be in jeopardy.

    That’s because holdovers The Devil Wears Prada and Michael loom. The former performed in line with its general anticipated range (more on that below) while Michael showed sturdy legs in its sophomore outing. I do believe the former will be more front-loaded with a drop over 50% (though the Mother’s Day audience could help). If Michael falls less than 35% (definitely achievable), it could stay in the runner-up position.

    The other newbies should follow. The Sheep Detectives with Hugh Jackman appears headed for a fourth place showing in the lower teens. I have the Billie Eilish concert film (directed by James Cameron!) just under double digits and rounding out the top five.

    Here’s how I see it playing out:

    1. Mortal Kombat II

    Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

    2. Michael

    Predicted Gross: $37.6 million

    3. The Devil Wears Prada 2

    Predicted Gross: $36 million

    4. The Sheep Detectives

    Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

    5. Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D)

    Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

    Box Office Results (May 1-3)

    While not quite beginning in grand fashion and exceeding expectations like Michael did, The Devil Wears Prada 2 still easily ruled the charts. With Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others reprising their roles from 20 years ago, the sequel hauled in $76.7 million. While that’s below my $86.5 million prediction, it is still a laudable figure. As mentioned above, the opening could be somewhat top heavy.

    Michael showed commendable movement in second with a 44% decline at $54.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $51 million take as the record-setting biopic has earned $184 million in two weeks.

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was third with $12.6 million, in line with my $12.1 million projection. The animated sequel crossed a milestone after five weeks with $402 million.

    Project Hail Mary was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.2 million) for a seven-week tally of $318 million.

    Haunted house horror flick Hokum, sporting fresh reviews, was fifth with $6.4 million. The Adam Scott headlined feature managed to outdo my $4.2 million forecast.

    Finally, Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of Animal Farm flopped in sixth place with only $3.3 million though it did get beyond my $2.7 million estimate.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    Oscar Predictions: The Devil Wears Prada 2

    The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.

    Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.

    The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.

    At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    May 1-3 Box Office Predictions

    Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

    The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction
    Hokum Box Office Prediction
    Animal Farm Box Office Prediction

    Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.

    Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.

    As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.

    Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends. However, due to the sheer size of its performance, I will hedge and say a mid to high 40s drop could occur.

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.

    Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

    1. The Devil Wears Prada 2

    Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

    2. Michael

    Predicted Gross: $51 million

    3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

    4. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

    5. Hokum

    Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

    Box Office Results (April 24-26)

    Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.

    After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.

    Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.

    Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.

    The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction

    Arriving two decades after its predecessor on May 1st is the fashion dramedy The Devil Wears Prada 2. It will bank on riding a nostalgic wave and large female audience. David Frankel is back in the director’s seat with returning stars Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci alongside series newbies Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh (and a number of cameos).

    In the summer of 2006, the first Prada was a solid counter programing performer. Opening to $27.5 million, it legged out impressively to a $124 million domestic haul. Most importantly, it has stuck around in the cultural zeitgeist over the past 20 years.

    This truly appears to be an example where the sequel will outdo the original. Marketing has been heavy and the dawn of May indicates supreme confidence from 20th Century Studios. For Streep, it should blow away her best ever debut held by Mamma Mia! ($27.6 million) with the OG Devil right behind it. I believe this could triple (or more) what part one achieved (not adjusted for inflation) during its launch.

    The Devil Wears Prada 2 opening weekend prediction: $86.5 million

    For my Hokum prediction, click here:

    Hokum Box Office Prediction

    For my Animal Farm prediction, click here:

    Animal Farm Box Office Prediction