Tag: Monkey Man

78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

BEST FILM

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Predicted Winner: Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Predicted Winner: No Other Land

Runner-Up: Daughters

BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

BEST CASTING

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST EDITING

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: The Substance

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST SOUND

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Better Man

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Kneecap

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

Predicted Winner: Kneecap

Runner-Up: Santosh

Best Children’s & Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

EE Rising Star Award

Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

5 Wins

Conclave

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 4/5

I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

How I Did: 9/10

I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

How I Did: 2/5

Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 4/5

I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

Animated Film

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 5/6

I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is where Anora could get a prize.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 4/5

Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

How I Did: 5/6

I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 4/6

Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

Casting

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

How I Did: 2/5

This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

How I Did: 4/5

Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

Costume Design

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

Editing

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

How I Did: 3/5

Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

Make-Up and Hair

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

Original Score

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

Sound

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

Special Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

78th BAFTA Awards Nomination Predictions

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.

Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – A Complete Unknown

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Alternate – Wicked Little Letters

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango

Alternate – Monkey Man

Best Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Alternate – Piece by Piece

Best Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera

Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Alternate – Inside Out 2

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Alternate – All We Imagine as Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked

Alternate – Sing Sing

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)

Best Supporting Actress

Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

Best Casting

Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Alternate – Kneecap

Best Cinematography

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu

Alternate – Emilia Pérez

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Alternate – Blitz

Best Editing

Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Alternate – Emilia Pérez

Best Original Score

Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – Wicked

Best Production Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Alternate – The Brutalist

Best Special Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Alternate – Wicked

Best Sound

Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Alternate – The Substance

That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Conclave

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

Gladiator II

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

2 Nominations

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea

31st SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.

Predicted Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.

Predicted Nominees:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.

Predicted Nominees:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)

Predicted Nominees:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.

Predicted Nominees:

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.

Predicted Nominees:

Deadpool & Wolverine

Dune: Part Two

The Fall Guy

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator II

Runner-Up: Monkey Man

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

4 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked

2 Nominations

Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance

I’ll have a recap up with how I did on Wednesday!

April 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:

Abigail Box Office Prediction
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction
Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.

Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.

As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Abigail

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

2. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Spy x Family Code: White

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (April 12-14)

Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.

Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.

Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Civil War Box Office Prediction

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction
The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.

With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.

The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.

The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

2. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The First Omen

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 29-31)

March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.

Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.

Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.

Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures looks for Monkey Man to make the lion’s share of box office dollars when it opens on April 5th. Dev Patel (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) makes his directorial debut in the action thriller with John Wickish vibes. He also headlines and cowrote the pic that premiered at South by Southwest to general acclaim (the RT score is 92%). Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Sobhita Dhulipala, Sikandar Kher, and Vipin Sharma costar. Jordan Peele serves as a producer.

The effective ads could lure genre enthusiasts searching for Wick style violence, even if Patel is far from a bankable commodity (though expect The Green Knight stans to be first in line). This could be an example of cinephiles being more thrilled to view it than general audiences. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this overperforms and that could mean a high teens to low 20s start. Mid teens might be more likely.

Monkey Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my The First Omen prediction, click here:

The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Monkey Man

Dev Patel’s directorial debut Monkey Man received its first look at South by Southwest prior to an April 5th release. The hardcore action flick is getting some cheers. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, the actor turned filmmaker and co-writer (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) could have a spring sleeper hit. Jordan Peele is among the producers with a supporting cast including Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Vipin Sharma, Sikandar Kher, and Sobhita Dhulipala.

While some reviews hone in on the overall style with shoutouts to the cinematography, Monkey isn’t really the type of material Oscar goes for. The chances of it factoring in any race seems minor. Where it might pop up is at next year’s DGA Awards with Patel in the First-Time Feature category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…