Tag: Migration

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.

Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.

Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $83.6 million

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.

Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.

Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.

Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.

Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.

Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction
Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction
Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.

I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).

The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.

While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.

Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.

Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:

1. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Migration

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. Drive-Away Dolls

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.

Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.

Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.

The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.

Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 16-19 Box Office Predictions

As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Madame Web Box Office Prediction
Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.

Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.

Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.

Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).

Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:

1. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.

The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.

Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.

Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Lisa Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.

Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).

That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Lisa Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

2. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.

The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.

Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.

Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.

Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Argylle Box Office Prediction

After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.

The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.

Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.

Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).

The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.

Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.

Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 26-28 Box Office Predictions

The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Miller’s Girl Box Office Prediction

The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.

Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.

Here’s my top 5 forecast:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

4. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.

Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.

Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.

Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.

Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.

Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

I.S.S. Box Office Prediction

After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.

Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.

The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.

Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.

Here’s how I do see it:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

2. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (January 12-15)

It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.

The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).

Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.

Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.

Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.

Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 12-15 Box Office Predictions

The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction
The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction
The Book of Clarence Box Office Prediction

Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.

The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.

If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.

I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.

The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.

And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

8. The Book of Clarence

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 5-7)

Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.

As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.

Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.

Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 5-7 Box Office Predictions

The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Night Swim Box Office Prediction

My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.

With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

2. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (December 29-31)

Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.

Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.

After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.

Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.

Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 29-December 31 Box Office Predictions

2023 closes out with no newcomers, but a host of Christmas holdovers as Wonka looks to bounce back into the top spot with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to at least second.

I’m making these top five predictions for the traditional three-day weekend and not counting New Year’s Day (which typically sees brisk business at multiplexes). We are still awaiting final numbers for the long Christmas weekend. That includes from Warner Bros who have Wonka, Aquaman, and The Color Purple atop the charts.

The Boys in the Boat (which opened on Christmas to significantly better numbers than I figured) should round out the top five. While Aquaman should come in second, I suspect Migration could rise to the runner-up spot as families catch up on product over another holiday weekend.

Here’s my best guess on how it will look:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Migration

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

5. The Boys in the Boat

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million