Tag: Free Fire

Box Office Predictions: April 28-30

It’s the final weekend before the summer onslaught of high-profile wannabe blockbuster hits screens. Our final April weekend brings the Emma Watson/Tom Hanks thriller The Circle and rom com How to Be a Latin Lover. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/19/the-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, The Circle should be in for a second place showing behind the third weekend of The Fate of the Furious, which should manage to stay on top before Marvel’s Guardians slays all competitors when May hits.

As for Latin Lover, it certainly has the chance to over perform and could potentially nab the #3 spot. However, my estimate has it rounding out the top five with holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast above it.

There is another debut this weekend and that’s Sleight, the BlumHouse Tilt horror pic. I don’t have a theater count for it yet. Right now, I’ll predict $2.4 million though I could choose to revise once more information is available.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. The Circle

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

In a weekend where six new titles rolled out wide (or semi-wide), there some surprises here and there. One item that wasn’t surprising: The Fate of the Furious easily remained #1 with $38.4 million, a bit under my $43.2M projection. The eighth pic in the franchise has taken in $163M in ten days.

The Boss Baby held in second with $12.7 million (above my $9.2M estimate) for $136M overall. Beauty and the Beast remained third with $9.6 million (above my $7.8M forecast) to bring its total to $470M. That puts it at #10 for all-time domestic earners and climbing.

Other holdovers held up better than my predictions. Going in Style was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $3.5M). It’s made $31M. Smurfs: The Lost Village was fifth at $4.8 million (I said $3.6M) and it’s earned $33M.

Yes, that means none of the newcomers cracked the top five. Disney’s nature doc Born in China was sixth with $4.7 million, in line with my $5.2M estimate. In seventh was the Katherine Heigl/Rosario Dawson thriller Unforgettable. It also made $4.7 million and that’s way below my generous $12.9M projection. I mistakenly felt a decent female audience might turn out for it. Not so.

Then there’s Gifted. I had it outside the top ten, but it expanded its theater count and posted $4.5 million for eighth. Its total is $10M.

The Promise opened in ninth with $4 million (I said $3.2M). The Christian Bale/Oscar Isaac Armenian genocide drama looks to be a big money loser for its studio.

The Lost City of Z was 10th as it expanded its theater count with $2.1 million (below my $3.7M prediction). Found footage horror flick Phoenix Forgotten opened dismally in 11th with $1.8 million, not matching my take of $3.4M.

Finally, Brie Larson action comedy Free Fire was DOA in 17th place with just $994k (I said $2.3M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: April 21-23

It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.

I see Unforgettable having little trouble placing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.

And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.

Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.

So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Unforgettable

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Born in China

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. The Lost City of Z

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

7. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

8. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

9. Phoenix Forgotten

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

10. The Promise

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.

The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.

Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.

Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

James Gray’s The Lost City of Z opens in semi wide release this weekend after a pretty impressive debut in very limited fashion over Easter weekend. The pic tells the true story of explorer Percy Fawcett (Charlie Hunnam) in the Amazon in the early 20th century. Costars include Robert Pattinson, Sienna Miller, and Tom Holland.

Z closed the New York Film Festival last fall to positive word of mouth and it stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It grossed over $100,000 on just 4 screens this last weekend and is slated to expand to approximately 500 on Friday.

I believe this could perform similarly to The Place Beyond the Pines four years ago. Though there’s no obvious comparison between the two titles, both appeal to a more adult audience and received encouraging critical reaction. Pines made $3.8 million when it hit around 500 theaters. If Z accomplishes the same, that means I have it out doing The Promise, Phoenix Forgotten, and Free Fire in their debuts.

The Lost City of Z opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

 

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.

While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).

Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.

Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

It’s being described as The Blair Witch Project, but with aliens. Phoenix Forgotten debuts in approximately 1500 theaters this Friday and it tells the true life story of strange lights that appeared over the title city some 20 years ago.

The found footage horror flick has a cast of unknowns. In fact, the biggest name involved is producer Ridley Scott, who’s clearly in extraterrestrial mode as his Alien: Covenant hits theaters next month.

Expectations for Forgotten are considerably lower. The pic has received little fanfare or buzz and I expect a very forgetful debut. It may even hold the unfortunate designation of having the lowest opening of any of the six titles hitting theaters in wide release or semi wide release this weekend, though I’ll say Free Fire and possibly The Lost City of Z get below it. And who knows? Maybe The Promise as well… this weekend is tough!

Phoenix Forgotten opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/