At this impossibly early stage of the Oscar predicting calendar, one could actually make a decent argument that the final five of the Best Actor category could be set. That might seem like a silly thing to say, but it’s entirely possible that the quintet I have ranked 1-5 end up being the contenders. We have arrived at the leading gentlemen in my deep dives into six major categories at the 96th Academy Awards. If you missed my write-ups on the supporting derbies, you can access them here:
The Venice and Telluride fests and the ongoing one in Toronto have shed light on some hopefuls and increased their chances. They’ve also winnowed the field in my opinion. Adam Driver probably won’t be feted for Ferrari nor is Michael Fassbender looking likely for The Killer or Next Goal Wins. Barry Keoghan has a better shot than either of them for Saltburn, but the film’s divisive reaction may hurt him. On the other hand, Andrew Scott has established himself as a serious possibility for All of Us Strangers. So have Anthony Hopkins in One Life and (perhaps to a lesser degree) Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction.
Yet I can’t shake the strange feeling that the five might look like a combo of already screened and/or released titles (including one at Cannes). There’s Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon. And the fests of the past few days have showcased the strong chances for Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). That said, I’d say there’s not a clear frontrunner of the group.
It can’t be that simple, can it? Probably not. Yet it’s a sturdy group to bet on at the moment. We’re still waiting to see about Joaquin Phoenix as Napoleon or Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love. And perhaps Teo Yoo (Past Lives) or Matt Damon (Air) could materialize for the duo’s already released efforts.
I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Adam Driver, Ferrari
Matt Damon, Air
David Strathairn, A Little Prayer
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Actress is up next!
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